Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


  000 AXNT20 KNHC 140427 TWDAT   Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  0425 UTC.  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...  Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A broad subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles is forcing fresh to near gale-force easterly  trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea. Winds will  pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia tonight and Sun  night. Seas are 8-12 ft in the area described, with the highest  seas off NW Colombia. Conditions will improve by midweek.  Atlantic Gale Warning: A weak 1016 mb low pressure system near 32N32W is slowly moving southward into the north-central tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the 1039 mb high  pressure system in the far north Atlantic and the aforementioned  low result in strong to gale-force northerly winds north of 26N  and between 35W and 44W. Seas in these waters are 12-17 ft. The  strongest winds and highest seas are occurring near 31N37W. Winds  will drop below gale-force Sunday morning and below strong force  late Monday. Seas are forecast to peak near 18 ft Monday morning and then gradually subside, dropping below 12 ft Monday evening.  Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...  A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 00N33W and to 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 03N and west of 22W.  ...GULF OF MEXICO...  A broad subtropical ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico  dominates the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather  conditions. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are found south  of 24N and east of 94W, including the Florida Straits. Seas in  these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and  seas of 2-5 ft are noted north of 23N and west of 93W. Elsewhere,  moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.  For the forecast, high pressure dominates the Gulf basin. Strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the  evening the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds  with slight to moderate seas can be expected through the weekend  and into early next week. Winds will briefly increase over the  western Gulf the middle of next week.   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...  Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale warning off NW Colombia.  Pockets of low-level moisture in the NE Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Honduras are producing light, isolated showers. Outside of the  gale warning region, the broad subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds in  the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8  ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds  and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere.  For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail off the coast of Colombia, pulsing to gale-force tonight and Sun night. Seas  will build to near 12 ft during the period of gale force winds.  Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage, S of  the Dominican Republic, and in the Lee of Cuba. Otherwise,  moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas can be expected  across much of the basin through the weekend and into early next  week. Fresh to occasionally strong winds may develop in the Gulf  of Honduras midweek.   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...  Please read the Special Features section for details about a gale warning in the north-central Atlantic.  A cold front extends from 31N64W to 25N71W, where it becomes a stationary front to the coast of NE Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 27N65W to NW Hispaniola. Light showers are noted near the frontal boundary and surface trough. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are evident north of 28N and from the front to 58W. A subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic behind the frontal boundary, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas, especially east of 77W.  Farther east, a shear line extends from 30N26W to the Leeward Islands. Outside of the gale warning area, a recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to locally strong N-NE winds north of  the shear line and east of 60W. Seas in the area described are  8-12 ft. In the remaining waters, moderate or weaker winds and  moderate to rough seas prevail.  For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N64W to  25N70w where it stalls to central Cuba. This front will continue  to stall from 31N61W to eastern Cuba through Sun and gradually  dissipate. Strong winds occurring E of the front N of 30N will  diminish tonight. Rough seas accompanying the front will subside  by Sun morning. Large N-NE swell across the SE waters will linger  through the weekend. Otherwise, high pressure will build in the  wake of the front through early next week with more tranquil  marine conditions expected.  $$ Delgado