Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


  000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130348 TWDEP  Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC.  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...  Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind  event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of  Tehuantepec, reaching as far south as 14N. Combined seas of  about 14 ft are ongoing in the plume of gale force winds, but  seas in the 8-12 ft seas range extend to 09N and 102W. Ongoing  high pressure north of the area will continue to funnel these  gales through Sat morning, dropping to near gale or strong breeze late Sat, and finally dissipating Sun night. Peak seas should  drop below 12 ft Sat afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon.  Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec  through the weekend should be aware of this ongoing gap wind  event and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine  conditions over the affected waters.   Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas  Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for  more information on this event.  ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  A trough extends from Colombia near 07N77W to 03N90W to 04N85W.  The ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 07N120W to 03N135W to beyond  04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to  10N between 102W and 105W, and from 11N to 13N between 110W and  112W.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning.  Fresh to strong southerly winds may be pulsing over the northern Gulf of California currently, ahead of a cold front approaching Baja California Norte from the west. Elsewhere, outside of the  Tehuantepec area, light to gentle variable winds persist across  the Mexican offshore waters. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft off  Baja California with a component of NW swell, and 3 to 6 ft  elsewhere except 1 to 4 ft over the Gulf of California.  For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, low  pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will support fresh to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of California. These  winds will be reinforced by a weak cold front that will be moving across the waters west of Baja California Norte on Sat and Sun.  This wil allow the continuation of fresh to strong winds in the  northern Gulf of California through early Sun morning. In the  wake of the cold front, building high pressure should cause fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula Sun  night into late Tue. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds will  dominate the Baja Peninsula offshores through Wed night.   ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR  Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua downwind to about 92W. Gentle to moderate easterly  winds from this gap wind event extend into the outer offshore  waters El Salvador and Guatemala. Seas over these two offshore zones are in the 5-9 ft range. The ridge over the Caribbean also influences fresh to strong NNE gap winds in the Gulf of Panama N of 05N. Light and variable winds prevail across the rest of the  Central American and Equatorial Pacific waters. Outside of the  Papagayo region, seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell.  For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region  will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo  and the coast of Nicaragua through Sun night, pulsing to near- gale overnight tonight and again Sat night. The forcing will  diminish some Mon into Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will  continue into mid week. The same pressure gradient will continue  to support fresh to strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama  through Sun. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker  for the next several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow through Sat night.   ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 15N and west of  120W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds  mainly north of 06N and west of 130W. Combined seas are 6 to 8  ft in this region, with a component of mixed NE and NW swell.  Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted  elsewhere.  For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further into  Sat. A cold front will move eastward across the waters north of  25N into Baja California through Sun, before dissipating. Seas  should reach to 12 ft near the northern border of the discussion  area at 30N Sat, before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to  N swell will then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching  as far south of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell  will cross the equator heading northward. These interacting swell will cause combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of  115W. By late Sat, a long tail of fresh to strong NE to E winds  from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 102W and as far south as 08N. Seas will  reach up to 10 ft.  $$ Christensen