Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


  000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120906 TWDEP   Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...  Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind  event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of  Tehuantepec. Winds at Salina Cruz on the southern end of the isthmus are reaching near-gale. This is indicative of gale or possible strong gale force winds over the adjacent Gulf of Tehuantepec. An altimeter satellite pass from 04 UTC confirmed combined seas of 13 ft in the plume of gale force winds, and these seas likely have been building since that time and are reaching a peak wave height around 17 ft. Ongoing high pressure  north of the area will continue to funnel these gales through Sat morning, dropping to near gale or strong breeze late Sat, and  finally dissipating Sun night. Peak seas should drop below 12 ft Sat afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. Marine interests  transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend  should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event and take the  necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the  affected waters.   Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas  Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for  more information on this event.  ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  A trough extends from Colombia near 06N77W to 05N90W. The ITCZ  continues from 05N90W to 07N115W to 03N135W to beyond 04N140W.  Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 09N between 96W and 98W, and from 06N to 08N between 114W and 116W.   ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning.  Outside of the Tehuantepec area, gentle to moderate winds persist across the Mexican offshore waters. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California with a component of NW swell, 3 to 5 ft elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires were noted yesterday over the  coastal areas off Chiapas.  For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, developing  low pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will force  fresh to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of California late today. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will be moving across  the waters west of Baja California Norte on Sat and Sun. In the  wake of the cold front, building high pressure should cause fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula Sun  night into Tue.   ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR  Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua downwind to about 90W. Light and variable winds  prevail across the rest of the Central American and Equatorial  Pacific waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft. Hazy conditions observed  along and just offshore northern Central America are due to  mostly smoke produced by agricultural fires.  For the forecast, the large N-S pressure gradient setting up  over Central America will support fresh to strong NE to E winds  today, and near gale tomorrow night and Sat night over the Gulf  of Papagayo region. The forcing will diminish some on Sun into  Tue, but fresh to strong winds are expected to continue through  early next week. The same pressure gradient will cause fresh to  strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama tomorrow night into  Sun. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker for the  next several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will propagate across the offshore waters of  Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow through Sat night.   ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 15N and west of 120W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds mainly north of 10N and west of 125W. Combined seas are 6 to 9 ft in this region, with a component of NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere.  For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further into  Sat. A cold front will move eastward across the waters north of  25N into Baja California through Sun, before dissipating. Seas  should reach to 12 ft near the northern border of the discussion  area at 30N Sat, before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to  N swell will then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching  as far south of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell  will cross the equator heading northward. These interacting swell will cause combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of  115W. By late Sat, a long tail of fresh to strong NE to E winds  from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 102W and as far south as 08N. Seas will  reach up to 10 ft.  $$ Christensen