234  AXPZ20 KNHC 100357 TWDEP   Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Apr 10 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC.  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...  Gulf Of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event is  expected in the Tehunatepec starting early on Thu as high pressure surges southward along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico in the wake of a cold front that will be moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are forecast to  increase to minimal gale-force speeds by Thu morning. North to  northeast winds will increase further to a maximum speed of 40  kt Thu night into Fri along with building seas expected to peak  to around 16 ft. Winds then diminish to minimal gale-force by  early Sat and to fresh to strong speeds afterward into Sun.  Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event will spread  well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater  reaching as far west as 104W by Fri night. Marine interests  transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night into  Sat should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take  the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over  the affected waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale  force by Sat night.   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more  information on this event.  ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  A trough extends from low pressure of 1007 mb located over  northern Colombia, southwestward to the coast of Panama at 08N78W and continues to 08N96W and to 09N93W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to  10N103W to 05N114W to 06N125W to 04N134W and to beyond 04N140W.  Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within  240 nm south of the trough between 88W and 96W. Scattered  moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the ITCZ between  103W and 107W, and also within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between  125W and 132W.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning.  High pressure is the main feature controlling the wind regime  across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Mostly moderate northwest to north winds are over the offshore waters  of Baja California, except for fresh northwest winds near  Cabo San Lucas. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, fresh northwest winds are over the central and  southern sections while light to gentle west to northwest winds  are over the northern section. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over the central and southern Gulf sections and 2 to 3 ft over the northern section. Light to gentle west to northwest winds  dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas  of 4 to 6 ft in mixed long period northwest and southwest swell. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the waters surrounding the Revillagigedo Islands due to a prolonged long-period northwest swell moving  through those waters. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires may be along and just offshore the Mexican coast between Cabo  Corrientes and the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the  weather pattern across the offshore forecast waters of Baja  California for the next few days. Winds offshore Baja California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds through Thu, then will become light and gentle winds Fri through Sat ahead of an approaching cold front forecast to reach 30N120W by Sat night.   In the Gulf of California, winds will generally become light and variable on Thu throughout. On Fri, winds over the northern part of the Gulf are forecast to become fresh in speeds, south to  southwest in direction, then increase to fresh to strong speeds  Fri night prior to the approach of the aforementioned cold  front. Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail elsewhere  with slight to moderate seas. The next gale force gap wind event  in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Thu morning. It  will likely persist through Sat. Seas are expected to peak to  around 16 ft with this upcoming event.   ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR  Moderate to fresh east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region  and west from there to near 88W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these  winds. Light and variable winds are in the Gulf of Panama.  Generally gentle to moderate southerly winds are north of the  Equator while light to gentle southeast winds are present  between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft  due to a long-period south to southwest swell.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are presently over most  of the Central American offshore waters. Winds and seas may be  higher in and near this activity as it is expected to stay  active through at least late on Wed. Hazy conditions observed  along and just offshore northern Central America, northward of  northern Nicaragua are due to mostly smoke produced by  agricultural fires.  For the forecast, the moderate to fresh east winds in the Gulf  of Papagayo will continue through Wed morning, and again Thu and Thu night. These winds will then increase to fresh to strong speeds along with seas building to 8 to 10 ft early on Fri. There is a possibility for these winds to reach near gale-force late  Fri night into early Sat with seas building to 10 ft. At the same time fresh northerly winds will start in the Gulf of Panama,  with seas likely building up to 7 ft. Seas generated in the Gulf  of Tehuantepec will propagate across the outer SW offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Fri evening. Abundant moisture  drawn in by a very moist and unstable southerly wind flow is  prevalent across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and  Colombia. It is expected to favor the development of scattered  to numerous showers and thunderstorms over these waters through  at least late Wed.  ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  High pressure of 1029 mb located well to the north of the discussion area is the main feature influencing the weather  pattern over the waters north of the ITCZ and west of about 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively  lower pressure found in the vicinity of the ITCZ is sustaining a  rather large area of fresh to strong trade winds mainly from  about from 10N to 16N west of about 130W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft  with these winds based on altimeter satellite data passes and on  a recent ship observations. Mostly fresh northeast winds along  with moderate seas are present elsewhere under the influence of  the associated ridge.  For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will shift  eastward through Thu as it weakens with the approach of a cold  front that is expected to push south into the far northwest part  of the area on Fri. As a result, the area of trades over the west central waters will diminish in areal coverage. Seas  produced by these winds will also subside going into the end of  the week. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds in addition  to a new set of northwest swell will follow the front. Seas peaking to around 13 or 14 ft are currently forecast for the waters north of about 29N between 132W and 136W on Sat.  $$ Aguirre