Bitcoin May Double Within 3 Months if It Repeats Historical Trend, Here’s Why

Bitcoin is up again after reclining from its new all-time high (ATH) of $73,750. Market participants are optimistic that Bitcoin will break the recent ATH to set a new record following the upcoming halving.

According to entrepreneur TechDev, Bitcoin closed two consecutive months trading above the upper Bollinger Band. This bullish pattern historically leads to an increase in BTC’s price.

Crypto Entrepreneur Identifies Bullish Pattern for Bitcoin

TechDev’s theory hinges on Bitcoin’s past price behavior. TechDev says BTC doubles in value whenever it stays above the upper Bollinger Band for two consecutive months. This increase usually occurs within three months before its price reclines again.

So TechDev believes this technical indicator signals that Bitcoin is positioned for a major breakout in the next few weeks.

It doesn't happen often.#Bitcoin closed 2 consecutive months over the upper Bollinger band.

Each time it has then doubled within 3 months before the next red candle. pic.twitter.com/veOOOmT8Id

— TechDev (@TechDev_52) April 7, 2024

Reacting to the post, crypto investor GemDetector noted a bullish chart pattern. However, an increase is not guaranteed since the market remains unstable.

Another analyst, CrytoMoon, shared a more bullish view of the chart pattern. He said BTC could rise to $140,000 in four weeks if it repeats the December 2020 fractal pattern.

Also, in a CNBC interview, SkyBridge Capital’s CEO, Anthony Scaramucci, predicted that BTC could reach a high of $170,000. He believes that Bitcoin could trade at half the market cap size of gold, representing a nearly 6-10x increase.

Notably, BTC has a total market cap value of $1.35 trillion compared to gold’s $15.8 trillion. For Bitcoin to attain half the market cap of gold, it must increase at least six times its current value. If this happens, then the price of Bitcoin will be pushed to over $400,000 per token.      

However, Scaramucci affirms that this increase will not happen overnight, and there will be a lot of price volatility. The CEO also noted that Bitcoin has gained over 140% in the past year. He believes the high demand for spot ETFs contributed to Bitcoin’s push to a new all-time high last month.

Meanwhile, there are only a few days until the anticipated Bitcoin halving, which is expected to slash block rewards by half. Notably, before each Bitcoin halving, the price of BTC often rises due to high demand as investors look forward to a post-halving rally.  

This increase has been observed in the current cycle as BTC hit a new ATH above $73,000 in March. However, a price increase post-halving is not guaranteed since circumstances differ in each halving cycle. 

Nevertheless, the upcoming halving on April 20 will likely lead to an eventual price surge for Bitcoin. That’s because it will likely create a supply shortage since mining rewards will be reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.

Coinbase Exchange Outlines Why the Upcoming BTC Halving May Be Different

Historically, within the first ninety days post-halving, Bitcoin often dips below its value at the time of halving. However, Coinbase says it could be different this time, noting possible reasons.

According to Coinbase, the just-issued spot BTC ETFs have fundamentally changed Bitcoin’s market dynamics, unlike prior halvings. The spot BTC ETFs have altered Bitcoin’s supply/demand dynamics as they record massive daily inflows. So BTC demand is turbocharged pre-2024, halving compared to previous ones.

Moreover, fewer Bitcoins are now available for trading, according to a 21Shares report. Unlike prior halvings, the ongoing Bitcoin rally has made miners reluctant to sell coins from their reserves.

Also, if the Feds lower benchmark rates, the US Treasury yields may weaken, making risky assets like Bitcoin more attractive to investors. Plus, the global shift in monetary policy could trigger a recession, stimulating demand for alternative stores of value like Bitcoin.

Hence, the circumstances surrounding the coming months point towards different outcomes for Bitcoin post-halving, unlike other halvings.