Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


  000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030107 TWDEP  Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Apr 3 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC.  ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  An equatorial trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 08N82W to 05N92W. The ITCZ continues from 05N92W to 04N104W to  07N124W to 01N140W. Another ITCZ extends from 03.4S108W to 02N111W to 03.4S117W to 01S120W. Scattered moderate isolated  strong convection is observed from 06N to 12N between 110W and  130W.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  A NW to SE ridge extends across the offshore waters. Fresh to strong NW winds have developed from the central through southern Gulf of California to near and S of Cabo Corrientes due to a tight pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures than normal over central Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere NW-N of Michoacan along with 6 to 8 ft seas in decaying NW swell, with gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere, locally fresh nearshore of Oaxaca.  For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support fresh to  strong NW winds funneling across the central Gulf of California  and off Cabo Corrientes tonight through Wed night. NW swell off  Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands and off Cabo  Corrientes will gradually subside through Wed night. Farther  south, strong to near-gale force winds will pulse across the  Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed evening through Thu, and Thu night through Fri. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong westerly gap  winds across the northern Gulf of California Thu night into Fri  associated with a cold front moving into southern California and  Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong winds will filter in behind the front in the central and southern Gulf for the start of the weekend. New, large NW swell may accompany the front off  Baja California late Thu through Sat night, with fresh to strong  NW-N winds near shore from Cabo San Lazaro northward.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR  Mainly gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters, with 3  to 5 ft combined seas in primarily S-SW swell. Areas of smoke  and haze may be limiting visibility slightly near the coast  mainly off El Salvador and Guatemala.  For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region may develop Fri through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail for the next several days. Seas may build offshore Guatemala Thu and Thu night due to a Gulf of  Tehuantepec gap wind event. Otherwise, 3 to 5 ft seas will  prevail through the next several days, except building slight  from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Island by the end of the  week in new southerly swell.  ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  Ridging dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. The ridging  combined with lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting a belt  of fresh to strong trades from 10N to 20N to the west of 110W. Combined seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft aided by old northerly swell. Mainly gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere over the open waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft elsewhere W of 105W, and 4 to 6 ft E of 105W.  For the forecast, the belt of fresh to strong trades just north  of the ITCZ will persist through the week, diminishing somewhat thereafter as the ridge weakens. The fresh to strong trades will support 7 to 11 ft seas. A decaying cold front or remnant trough may move into the waters north of 25N and west of 130W by mid-  week with fresh to strong winds behind it. A set of NW swell will arrive with the boundary, building seas to 8 to 12 ft north of  20N and west of 130W through the end of the week. Looking ahead,  additional northerly swell may drop south of 30N by the end of  the week into the weekend, with the potential to build seas to  greater than 12 ft north of 25N and east of 130W.  $$ Lewitsky