Speaker Johnson’s next challenge: Ukraine aid

In today’s edition … Harris steps up her role as ambassador to voters shaky on Biden … Tammy Murphy drops out of Senate race … but first …

On the Hill

Ukraine aid could be even riskier for Johnson than the funding bill

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) weathered a conservative rebellion on Friday over his decision to cut a deal with Democrats to avert a government shutdown.

Now he needs to mollify many of the same lawmakers over an issue that draws their fury even more than compromising on government spending: sending more aid to Ukraine.

Johnson has put off taking up the long-stalled Ukraine aid package — a top priority for the White House and Democrats, along with some Republicans — as lawmakers struggled to prevent a shutdown, but he’s expected to do so next month when the House returns from recess. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Tex.), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and a top advocate of arming Ukraine, told CBS News’s “Face the Nation” yesterday that Johnson’s “commitment is to put [a Ukraine bill] on the floor after Easter.”

That’s a risk for Johnson after he enraged the hard-right House Freedom Caucus and its allies on Friday by passing a bill to prevent a government shutdown that more House Republicans opposed than supported. The move also led Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) to file a motion to oust him less than six months after Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) used a similar maneuver to force a vote on removing Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

McCaul suggested yesterday that Greene’s threat won’t make it any easier to pass a Ukraine bill.

• “He is in a very difficult spot,” McCaul said.

House Republicans’ shrunken majority after the resignation of Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) on Friday means as few as three Republicans could oust Johnson if every Democrat joined them.

Reasons for skepticism

Still, there are reasons to be skeptical that Johnson will lose the speakership if he brings a Ukraine bill up for a vote.

No other House Republican has echoed Green’s call for Johnson’s ouster. Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), one of the eight Republicans who voted to depose McCarthy in October, said Friday that he didn’t support Greene’s effort.

• “It’s just going to hand the gavel over to Hakeem Jeffries if we do that,” Burchett told reporters, referring to the Democratic minority leader, who some Republicans fear could be elected speaker if they force out a second speaker in barely six months.

Greene was vague on Friday about when she’ll trigger a vote to depose Johnson, though she insisted she would do it.

• “I’m not saying that it won’t happen in two weeks or it won’t happen in a month or who knows when,” Greene told reporters. “But I am saying the clock has started. It’s time for our conference to choose a new speaker.”

And it’s far from clear that Democrats would join Greene in voting to remove Johnson as they did during the vote on ousting McCarthy.

Several House Democrats have suggested they wouldn’t vote to remove Johnson — although their willingness to save him could depend on what is happening with a Ukraine bill.

“For any Democrat inclined [to help Johnson], I don’t think we do that for free,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told CNN’s “State of the Union” yesterday.

House Democrats anticipate holding a caucus discussion before deciding how to proceed on a potential vote to get rid of Johnson, according to a Democratic leadership aide.

Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), a strong supporter of Ukraine aid, said Friday he didn’t think Greene’s threat would change Johnson’s calculus.

• “Speaker Johnson has been very clear that when we come back from recess, his intent is to put a vote on the floor,” Crow told us. “I want to believe him. That is the right thing to do. That is what my Republican colleagues said he intends to do. And he has made those promises repeatedly knowing that people can file a motion to vacate.”
• “Democrats have to be willing to make a deal with Speaker Johnson to help get the votes across the board,” he added.

Funding first, then aid?

Johnson said he wanted to finish the bruising battles over funding the government before dealing with Ukraine aid. He is not expected to take up the bill the Senate passed last month to provide military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and humanitarian aid for Gaza and has said he is considering a variety of other options for aiding Ukraine, including turning the package into a loan.

Johnson’s team “anticipated some degree of significant pushback” from the right over the spending bill, according to a House Republican leadership aide. So the anger as Johnson prepares to move forward on Ukraine aid isn’t a surprise.

Daniel Vajdich, a former Republican congressional aide who is now a lobbyist for Ukraine’s state-owned energy industry, even argued that Greene’s threat could make it easier for Johnson to bring a Ukraine aid bill up for a vote if the motion to vacate fails.

• “She and maybe a few others have been sort of holding this over the speaker’s head like a sword of Damocles, threatening to use it,” Vajdich said. “I for one actually, as a supporter of Ukraine assistance, hope that they do make use of it, because it’s going to fail. And I think that that will then firm up the speaker's position when it comes to putting these bills on the floor.”

What we're watching

At the White House

President Biden is having lunch with Vice President Harris today.

On Tuesday, he’ll head to Raleigh, N.C., where he and Harris will speak and headline a fundraiser before returning to Washington.

On Thursday, Biden and first lady Jill Biden will go to New York for another fundraiser. They head to Camp David on Friday.

On the Hill

The House and Senate are on recess this week.

From the courts

Monday: New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan will hold a hearing today in Donald Trump’s hush money trial. The former president’s lawyers are expected to ask Merchan to punish prosecutors for not turning over potential evidence until this month, per our colleagues Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein.

• Today is also the deadline for Trump to post a bond in his $464 million civil fraud case. If Trump doesn’t post a bond, New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) could seize his assets, including properties such as Trump Tower.

Tuesday: The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments for the high-stakes reproductive rights case: FDA v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine. The justices are being asked to consider whether to limit access to mifepristone, a medication that has seen record usage since the high court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022.

While you wait …

• Check out Ann E. Marimow and Caroline Kitchener’s story on what’s at stake Tuesday.
• Check out Sabrina Malhi and McKenzie Beard’s story on how mifepristone is used and where you can get it (legally).

Overseas

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is in Washington today for meetings with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, national security adviser Jake Sullivan and other senior officials. 

At the White House

Harris steps up her role as ambassador to voters shaky on Biden

Our colleagues Sabrina Rodriguez and Cleve R. Wootson Jr. take a look at Harris’s outreach to young and minority voters and “whether that will be enough to win them back.” Here’s an excerpt: 

The outreach to these groups “sometimes leaves the two Democratic candidates — Biden, 81, and Harris, 59 — courting different parts of the coalition that helped Biden win the presidency,” Sabrina and Cleve write. “Biden won in 2020 in part by attracting moderate White voters wary of Trump. And while he also did well with people of color and young voters, recent polls show an erosion of support from those blocs.”

• “In interviews, many of these voters expressed frustration with Biden’s handling of a variety of issues, including the Israel-Gaza war, inflation, voting rights and immigration. Some have raised questions about what exactly Biden has done for them in his first term, often fretting about the rising cost of living. Increasingly, Biden’s team hopes Harris can provide an answer to these concerns.”
• “Her most potent argument might be one that goes unvoiced: that as a vice president who is Black, Asian American and female — and more than two decades younger than Biden — she offers a guarantee that those communities’ interests will be represented at the White House.” 
• “It remains to be seen whether that is a persuasive message for those dissatisfied with what Biden has delivered. In an interview with The Washington Post, Harris declined to assess her effectiveness as a messenger, saying that will be up to voters.”

The campaign

Tammy Murphy, wife of New Jersey governor, drops out of U.S. Senate race

New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy has dropped out of the primary race for Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D-N.J.) seat, dealing a stunning blow to the state’s decades-old, unusually powerful Democratic machine.

Murphy’s exit from the race leaves Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) as the overwhelming favorite for the nomination in the deep-blue state’s June 4 primary, our colleague Mariana Alfaro reports. The winner will be heavily favored in the general election.

Murphy, who would have been the first woman to represent New Jersey in the Senate, made the announcement in a video shared on X on Sunday.

• “After many busy, invigorating and, yes, challenging months, I am suspending my Senate campaign today,” she said in the video.
• “It is clear to me that continuing in this race will involve waging a very divisive and negative campaign, which I am not willing to do,” Murphy continued. “And with Donald Trump on the ballot and so much at stake for our nation, I will not, in good conscience, waste resources tearing down a fellow Democrat.”

When Murphy entered the race in November, she received early endorsements from the state’s powerful Democratic leaders, including LeRoy Jones Jr. of Essex County and Kevin McCabe of Middlesex County. She was heavily favored to secure preferential ballot placement in several counties under the state’s county line system. But her Senate bid drew criticism from insiders and members of the state party who expressed concerns about machine politics, nepotism and retaliation, Tobi reported in November. 

• Refresher: The county line system allows each candidate endorsed by the county chair or county committee to appear together on the ballot in the same column or row, from the presidential race to city council races. Democrats who dare to challenge machine candidates typically find themselves placed alone in a column farther down the ballot, a position that liberals often call “ballot Siberia.”

But Kim has won lines in Monmouth, Burlington, Hunterdon, Mercer counties and elsewhere. The third-term congressman “has taken on the mantle of the unlikely insurgent candidate trying to take down the vaunted machine of the New Jersey Democratic Party, where for decades political bosses in the 21 counties have wielded outsize power to determine who gets elected,” our colleague Paul Kane wrote over the weekend. 

The Media

Must reads

From The Post: 

• IVF ruling, abortion debate shape battle lines in Alabama special election. By Colby Itkowitz.
• ICYMI: Trump asked if U.S. was better off in his last year. In many ways, the answer is no. By Ashley Parker and Hannah Knowles.

From across the web: 

• Kevin McCarthy-Matt Gaetz feud heats up months after the former speaker's ouster. By NBC News’s Alexandra Marquez.
• Andy Kim still wants to end New Jersey’s ballot design even as he stands to benefit from it. By Politico’s Daniel Han.

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