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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


  458  AXPZ20 KNHC 232232 CCA TWDEP   Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Mar 23 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.  CORRECTED MEXICO OFFSHORES FORECAST...  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC.  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...  Gulf of California: A cold front will move across the Gulf of California this evening through Sun. Gale force winds will  develop in the northern Gulf this evening and continue through  Sun morning. Seas could build to 8 to 9 ft near the highest  winds. Strong to near gale force winds will continue across the  northern and central Gulf through Sun night into Mon morning as  the cold front dissipates. Conditions will improve Mon into Mon  night.   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information.   ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  A surface trough extends off the coast of Panama near 08N82W to  05N110W to 00N129W. The ITCZ continues from 00N129W to 01S140W.  Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 90W, and from 03N to 11N between 100W and 123W.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  Please see the Special Features section for more information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of California.   Surface ridging continues to influence the area with gentle to  moderate NW winds off the Baja California and the entrance of the   Gulf of California. A weak pressure gradient support light to gentle winds in the central and southern Gulf of California as well as the SW Mexican offshore waters where seas are 4-5 ft, except to 3 ft in the Gulf. In the northern Gulf of California, a prefrontal trough supports moderate to fresh SW to W winds. Otherwise, surface ridging building in the wake of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting a gap wind event  with fresh to strong speeds and seas to 6 ft in the Tehuantepec  region.   For the forecast, a cold front will move through the Baja  California and northern Gulf of California offshore waters today. Gale force winds are expected to begin in the northern Gulf by  this evening and continue through Sun morning. Seas are expected to build 8 to 9 ft. Strong winds will persist in the northern  and central Gulf Sun through Mon morning, with conditions  improving by Mon afternoon. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds  will follow the front across the Baja California offshore waters  with rough to very rough seas tonight through Mon. Winds off the  Baja Peninsula will diminish to moderate speeds Mon night and  seas will subside below 8 ft by Tue night into Wed. A brief gap  wind event is forecast for the Tehuantepec region later today  into tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds to the region along  with 5 to 7 ft seas. A stronger gap wind with potential gale  winds is forecast to begin Wed night into Thu morning and  continue through Fri morning.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR  Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas are ongoing  across the Central America offshore waters as well as the offshore zones between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers are noted between the coast of  Colombia and the Costa Rica offshore waters.   For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds and moderate  seas are forecast to prevail through Thu night.  ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  A cold front extends from 30N118W to 21N130W intersecting a broad surface ridge that extends to 08N and 112W. Strong high pressure behind this front supports moderate to fresh northerly winds and 7 to 11 ft seas in NW swell N of 24N, and a broad area of fresh  to strong NE winds from 03N to 24N W of 126W with 8-10 ft seas.  Light to gentle breezes are elsewhere south of the ITCZ and the equatorial trough. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft across these remainder Pacific waters.  For the forecast, shorter period wind waves created by moderate  to fresh winds along the ITCZ will merge with the longer period  NW swell propagating across the region from the cold front this evening. The cold front is expected to push eastward through  Sun, eventually dissipating by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds will become fresh to strong winds behind the cold front through  Mon. Seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front while combining with  the wind waves near the ITCZ tonight. By Sun, seas could build  to 15 ft east of 126W to the Baja California coast.  $$ Ramos