000 AXNT20 KNHC 230009 TWDAT  Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Mar 23 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.  Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  2350 UTC.  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...  Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning and Heavy Rainfall:  A frontal boundary with two embedded low pressure systems extending from Sarasota, Florida NW to 28N88W are gradually  tracking eastward across the NE Gulf of Mexico. Abundant moisture associated with these lows is coupling with diffluent winds aloft to trigger scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over  the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Some of these  thunderstorms can become severe, capable of producing heavy  downpours with reduced visibility, frequent gale-force wind gusts and even waterspouts. These thunderstorms are over the Florida  Keys, and are expected to reach southeastern Florida later this  evening. Heavy downpours will produce 2 to 4 inches of rain  across southern Florida through Saturday afternoon. Please refer  to your local NWS Weather Forecast Offices at website:  https://www.weather.gov for the latest advisories and warnings.  Western Atlantic Gale Warning:  A 1007 mb low pressure over NE Louisiana and its related strong  cold front across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will continue to push eastward over the next several days. The cold front is  anticipated to exit into the western Atlantic early Saturday  morning. Near-gale to gale-force southerly winds ahead of this  front are occuring from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond 31N and between 73W and 81W. Seas in this area will build to 13 ft. As the front moves farther eastward, these near-gale to gale-  force winds will shift to north of 27N between 68W and 75W by  Saturday afternoon. Seas are going to peak at 16 ft. By Sunday  morning, this areas of gale winds and high seas are expected to be north of 28N between 65W and 68W. Afterward, both winds and seas  should gradually subside through Sunday evening as the front  steadily weakens.  Mariners should monitor all the above hazardous marine conditions and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High  Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National  Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...  The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Gambia and southern Senegal, then reaches southwestward to  03N30W. The ITCZ extends from 00N24W to 03S34W to 02S44W.   Scattered moderate convection is from 04S to 10N between 08W and 31W, and from 03S to 02N W of 38W.   ...GULF OF MEXICO...  Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Frequent Gale Gusts  and Heavy Rainfall in the SE Gulf associated with a frontal boundary extending from Sarasota, Florida to SE Louisiana adjacent waters. A cold front extends from SE Louisiana SW to 26N95W. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds follow this second front while seas remain slight to moderate. In the far eastern Gulf S of 28N E of 85W, seas are 8 to 11 ft.    For the forecast, the frontal boundary mentioned in the Special Features Section will move E this evening and then inland across  Florida tonight. Strong to gale-force southerly winds are expected over the SE Gulf through this evening, mainly associated with the thunderstorm activity. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe  with higher gusts and frequent lightning. The cold front behind the leading frontal boundary will reach from near Tallahassee, FL to near 22N91W Sat morning, and exit the basin to the SE by early Sat evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds will spill across  the basin well behind the front tonight through Sat. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward from late  Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong  southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf, ahead of the  next cold front. Strong southerly winds will shift to the central  and eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as a cold front  enters the western Gulf Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds are  briefly expected Tue behind the front over the SW Gulf of Mexico.  The front will slow down and weaken mid-week over the eastern  Gulf.   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...  High pressure over the NW Atlantic extends a surface ridge southward to the northern Caribbean, thus sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, except for locally strong winds off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. In the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan  Channel, winds are fresh to locally strong from the SE and seas are moderate.  For the forecast, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel and the far northwestern Caribbean Sat afternoon. The front will then reach from eastern Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border Sun  evening, before stalling and dissipating on Mon. Fresh to strong  SE winds will develop over the western Caribbean late Mon through  Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico.  ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...  Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about  an upcoming Gale Warning.  Elsewhere, the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface ridge being intersected by a cold front in the central Atlantic extending from 31N50W to 22N56W where it transitions to a shear line that continues to the Hispaniola adjacent waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ahead of this  front to the Bahamas offshore waters. NE to E winds of similar speed are E of the front between the Cape verde Islands and the  coast of Africa. Rough seas in this region peak to 16 ft.   For the forecast W of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered along  the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. will shift E-NE and  strengthen through the weekend. Strong to near-gale force SE to S  winds E of Florida will increase to gale force this evening, as  low pressure tracks eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, and then  inland across the southeastern U.S. tonight. Strong southerly  winds will expand elsewhere between Florida and 67W. Strong to  severe thunderstorms with frequent gusts to gale force and  frequent lightning are expected tonight through Sat offshore  southern and central Florida, the Straits of Florida, and the  Bahamas. The gale force S winds will move slowly E across the  forecast waters, mainly N of 26N, through Sun. The front will exit NE Florida Sat afternoon, reach from near 31N73W to central Cuba  on Sun morning, from 31N66W to eastern Cuba by Mon morning, then  weaken considerably as it moves SE across the Atlantic waters  through Tue. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to N  swell will follow the front Sun through Mon to the east of  northern and central Florida.   $$ Ramos