Global fertility rates to plunge in decades ahead: Report
A comprehensive study conducted by the Institute For Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in the United States (US) forecasts a global shift toward a declining population by the end of this century. Published in The Lancet journal on Wednesday, the study claimed that fertility rates in half of all countries are insufficient to sustain current population sizes. The study also projected that by 2050, three-quarters of all countries will witness a population reduction.
By 2100, most countries will see population reduction
By 2100, the study predicts that 97% of the 204 nations analyzed will experience a population decline. The study also highlights a major demographic shift, with developing nations currently experiencing baby booms, while more affluent countries are facing declining birth rates. Only six countries—Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan—are predicted to maintain fertility rates above the replacement level of 2.1 births per female by the end of this century.
Global population decrease: Challenges and prospects
This expected global population decline may prompt significant societal changes, necessitating new policies to address demographic shifts. According to IHME researcher Natalia Bhattacharjee, the "implications are immense." She added that future fertility rate patterns and live birth trends will require societies to restructure and rely on open immigration for economic growth. However, experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) have cautioned against these projections flagging the "limitations" in data from developing nations.
India's fertility rate projected to dip
The study also warns that India's total fertility rate (TFR), or births per woman, will drop to 1.29 by 2050—significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. The decline in the TFR could lead to significant challenges, including an aging population, labor force shortages, and potential societal imbalances stemming from gender preferences. Notably, extensive data on birth rates, mortality, and fertility were used to predict the aforementioned demographic shifts.