Homelessness in Minnesota declined slightly in 2023, according to new study

Homelessness in Minnesota declined slightly in the past five years, according to a new statewide study released Wednesday. But it remains at the second-highest level in more than 30 years.

The study by Wilder Research is the first the nonprofit has released in five years due to pandemic-related delays. It found that nearly 11,000 Minnesotans were staying in shelters, transitional housing programs or living outdoors last October, including nearly 3,000 children.

That's a 7% decline from the record high in 2018. But researchers say the gap in data from 2018 to 2023 means there could have been fluctuations in homelessness, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.

"No one wants to see numbers that high," said Rebecca Sales, co-director of the study. "But there is a signal of positive things are happening ... although it is a minor decrease, it is a decrease nonetheless. To me that says that some of those investments and changes that have been made in the last five years had an impact."

Outdoor homeless encampments increased significantly during the pandemic, especially in Minneapolis and St. Paul, as people looked for safe places to stay as the coronavirus surged. But the pandemic also led to increased financial support in the form of stimulus checks and boosted food stamp benefits while temporary eviction moratoriums were established.

Last year, the Legislature nearly tripled funding over the next two years for youth homelessness programs in Minnesota, part of a broader increase in state aid for homeless services for adults and families. The $2.6 billion housing stability package signed by Gov. Tim Walz includes more funding for homeless shelters, rental assistance and affordable housing.

Earlier this year, the state launched a new strategic plan to reduce homelessness statewide by 15% by 2026.

"If there are those significant investments ... we can have an impact," Sales said. "We hope this is the beginning of some momentum."

The study results from Wilder Research, the research arm of the Wilder Foundation in St. Paul, conflict with a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) report last December that found that homelessness increased 6% in Minnesota from 2022 to 2023. But Sales said the HUD data is usually lower than Wilder's count of homelessness because Wilder has a broader definition, counting those who are couch hopping or doubled up with family or friends.

The HUD count is also done in January, when there may be fewer unsheltered people in Minnesota during the winter. Both reports don't offer a complete picture because of the transitory nature of homelessness, but Wilder Research says their study is considered to be the most comprehensive source of the state of homelessness in Minnesota.

"We can't be dismissive of any positive signal that we're having an impact," Sales said. "But we also know that this is a complex issue that we need to approach from a lot of different angles."

Study results

The study is usually completed every three years, but Wilder Research cancelled it in 2021 because of the pandemic.

In the new study, researchers found that a third of Minnesotans experiencing homelessness weren't staying in a formal shelter, a number that's stayed flat since 2018. But a higher proportion of people in greater Minnesota weren't in shelters, staying instead outside or doubling up with family or friends, suggesting a need for more shelters and services in those areas, Sales said. On the six tribal reservations that participated in the study, 95% of homeless people weren't staying in a shelter.

"There are just not the shelter beds there compared to the metro," Sales said. "Homelessness just looks so different in rural areas. There are generally fewer support services and things are further apart."

The study found that nearly half of the people experiencing homelessness in the state are families with children under the age of 18. While fewer children and youth under age 24 are experiencing homelessness, the number of adults 55 and older experiencing homelessness rose 7%.

For the first time in the more than 30 years of Wilder's study, six tribes — Bois Forte, Fond du Lac, Leech Lake, Mille Lacs, Red Lake, and White Earth — partnered with Wilder to survey homelessness on reservations. In 2018, Wilder counted 10,233 homeless Minnesotans, but later added tribal data to the count, increasing the total to 11,371 homeless Minnesotans that year.

Starting in May, Wilder will begin releasing more specific reports about subsets of homeless Minnesotans including veterans and youth, using information from interviews last October. Historically, people of color and people with mental illness have been disproportionately affected by homelessness.

"The reason that's so valuable is we really understand the full story of someone's experience," Sales said.

The study was released Wednesday to coincide with the Minnesota Coalition for the Homeless' annual "Homeless Day on the Hill," when hundreds of advocates and nonprofit leaders gather in St. Paul at the Capitol to push legislators to support additional funding.

"The reason that this study started was to produce data that will directly inform policies and programs, and be a tool people can use to end homelessness across the state," Sales said.