The famed cherry blossoms at the Tidal Basin in Washington are one stage from peak bloom after a spell of unseasonably warm weather. The National Park Service announced Friday that the buds reached Stage 5 out of 6, known as “puffy white.” This matches the earliest date the buds have reached this stage in at least two decades.
On average, the blossoms reach peak bloom with 3 to 5 days of Stage 5 — so it’s probable it will occur between Monday and Wednesday. If peak bloom occurs on Monday or Tuesday, March 18 or 19, it will rank as the third earliest on record.
Even though the blossoms are a step away from peak this weekend, it will be a great time to catch an early look and the start of a one-to-two-week stretch when you can take in the flowery scenes.
“The blossoms are out, now we’re just waiting on them to open,” the Park Service wrote on X.
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The National Cherry Blossom Festival in D.C. draws more than a million visitors from all over the world. Here’s our 2024 cherry blossom forecast for peak bloom.
The blossom buds cruised through the first 5 stages of bloom with unusual haste. They reached their first stage, when green buds emerged, on March 2. In less than two weeks, they’ve progressed to the penultimate stage — faster than all but one year in the last two decades; in 2010, the buds sped from Stage 1 to 5 in just 12 days (March 14 to 26).
Exceptionally warm weather in late February and early March have fueled this year’s swift bloom process. The average temperature in March is running 8.5 degrees above normal — in large part because of four days with highs in the 70s this week. Significantly, nights have remained above freezing since Feb. 26.
Temperatures will begin to cool this weekend, with highs in the 60s, but sunny skies should help blossoms open up.
Early next week, it will turn even colder, with highs only from 50 to 55 but that probably won’t be enough to stop the blossoms peaking around that time. Temperatures could drop to near freezing Monday and Tuesday nights but it would require a hard freeze — with temperatures in the 20s for several hours — to damage the blossoms.
Here’s how we would break down the likelihood of different peak bloom dates based on the forecast:
- Sunday (March 17): 15 percent (would tie as second earliest on record)
- Monday (March 18): 25 percent (would rank as third earliest)
- Tuesday (March 19): 25 percent (would rank as third earliest)
- Wednesday (March 20): 20 percent (would tie as third earliest)
- Thursday (March 21): 10 percent (would tie as fourth earliest)
- Next Friday (March 22) or later: 5 percent
The blossoms seemed poised to peak on the early side of projections. The Capital Weather Gang forecast peak bloom between March 19 and 23 while the Park Service predicted March 23 to 26.
Peak bloom is defined as when 70 percent of the cherry trees’ buds are flowering. Once flowering occurs, the blossoms can remain on the cherry trees for another week or so if it’s warm and winds are light. But in some years, petals fall off more rapidly because of wind and rain or if they wilt from freezing temperatures.
The likelihood of another early bloom fits into recent trends fueled by human-caused climate change. The average peak has advanced about six days over the past century, from April 4 to March 30. Each of the past four years has seen peak bloom before March 29. Last year, peak bloom was on March 23 — more than a week early.
