CCC warns UK's approach to climate adaptation 'is not working'

The UK Climate Change Committee (CCC) has today published its assessment of the government's Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3), warning it falls far short of what is required to protect the UK economy from worsening climate impacts.

Published in July 2023, NAP3 sets out plans to ensure the country is prepared for the effects of climate change through to 2028 - when it will be replaced by the UK's fourth five-year plan for adapting to escalating climate risks.

The plan to protect people, homes, and businesses from climate change risks such as flooding, droughts, and heatwaves featured a range of new measures, including proposals to triple overseas adaptation funding to £1.5bn by 2025, launch a UK Health Security Agency Adverse Weather & Health Plan, and pilot a dedicated Local Authority Climate Service that can provide localised climate data.

But the CCC today warned that while the strategy represented an improvement on previous adaptation programmes, the latest NAP's still fails to provide a credible vision for how the UK economy can be made resilient in the face of the the climate risks already impacting British people and businesses.

It argues the NAP's status across government departments remains too low, that a failure to deliver effective adaptation measures over the course of the current five-year programme increases the risk of locking-in poorly adapted infrastructure that will not be resilient to future impacts, and warns that in the region of £50bn in additional investment is needed each year by 2030 to put the UK on track to meet its net zero goals.

As such, the Committee argues more effective cross-government collaboration is needed to ensure all departments are engaged with adaptation issues and recognise the challenges that climate impacts can have across multiple sectors at any one time. It adds that over three iterations of the NAP, Defra has failed to make adaptation a top priority within the department or in other central government departments, the growing evidence of the huge costs and disruption climate impacts can cause.

Moreover, the CCC says the new NAP is still not sufficiently well-understood or resourced, particularly in local government, and that the present approach to coss-government coordination from Defra is not working.

The Committee also claims adaptation measures in the UK are insufficiently funded, and that NAP3 does not effectively tackle barriers to investment - such as the low perceived urgency of adaptation, the lack of clear targets from government, and the limited understanding of effective adaptation actions.

The CCC adds it cannot fully assess NAP progress without better monitoring and evaluation, and that a system of comprehensive indicators and data collection is therefore vital.

Ultimately, the CCC warns that under NAP3 fewer than half the short-term actions to address urgent risks identified in the last Climate Change Risk Assessment are being progressed.

"The evidence of the damage from climate change has never been clearer, but the UK's current approach to adaptations is not working," said Baroness Brown, chair of the CCC Adaptation Committee. "Defra needs to deliver an immediate strengthening of the government's programme, with an overhaul of its integration with other government priorities such as Net Zero and nature restoration."

The Committee acknowledges that imminent policy decisions on the future shape of the government's Environmental Land Management Scheme (ELMS) farming subsidy programme and new price control periods for the energy, water, and rail industries could serve to enhance climate resilience in the coming years. But it warns the window to deliver more effective climate resilient infrastructure this side of 2030 is closing fast.

"We cannot wait another five years for only incremental improvement," Baroness Brown warned.

The CCC's warnings come hot on the heels of the warmest and the fourth wettest February on record, according to Met Office figures.

At the launch of NAP3 last year, the government highlighted how billions of pounds have been invested in adaptation measures, including through £5.2bn in flood and coastal schemes for England, more than £750m for the Nature for Climate Fund, and £80m for the Green Recovery Challenge Fund.

But Gareth Redmond-King, head of international programme at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said current investment levels remained far too low and argued that the government's approach was akin to failing to insure your house. "It might save you some money in the short-run, but it'll cost you an awful lot more when your roof falls in," he said. "And this doesn't just affect dangers from climate impacts here. The CCC acknowledges that impacts outside the UK are one of the biggest ways climate risks threaten our economy. We import half our food, and half of the UK's food supply chains are in climate impact hotspots. If we don't support other nations to adapt, then harvests of staples like rice, bananas, and tea will fall, leading to shortages and higher prices."

Tom Lancaster, land analyst at ECIU, warned the inadequacy of the government's climate adaptation plans "beggars belief", as he urged the government to push through urgent reforms to its green farming subsidy schemes. 

"Relentless rain this winter is likely to lead to a terrible harvest come the summer," he said. "Floods last year hit yields, just as droughts did the year before. As the CCC recognise in this report, the new Environmental Land Management schemes will be crucial to helping farmers manage these impacts, making a vital contribution to our future food security by 'aiding resilience to ongoing climate change'.

"Whoever wins the next election will need to fix problems with the schemes, and guarantee enough funding to buffer us and farmers against what's to come."

Greenpeace UK's climate campaigner, Georgia Whitaker, urged the government to move quickly to both strengthen its climate adaptation strategy and accelerate efforts to cut emissions.

"Climate scientists have been warning about extreme weather hitting this country year after year, so this lack of preparation from the government is completely unforgivable," she said. "Over the last year we've seen extreme heat and flooding devastating homes and communities across the country. Despite this, the government has chosen to fan the flames of the climate crisis by rolling back climate policies that would help tackle the emissions that have taken us here, and now this week they've inexplicably announced new gas power stations. 

"Instead, we urgently need more holistic flood management including restoring nature, storing water better, as well as maintaining our flood defences. We must also tackle our emissions by moving to cheap, clean renewable power, upgrade our outdated grid and prioritise insulating our heat leaking homes."

A government spokesperson said: "The government's third National Adaptation Programme sets out a robust five-year plan to strengthen infrastructure, promote a greener economy, and safeguard food production in the face of the climate challenges we face.

"We are investing billions in projects to improve the UK's climate resilience, including £5.2bn in flood and coastal schemes in England, safeguarding future water supplies by accelerating £2.2bn of investment through our ambitious Plan for Water, and driving tree planting and peat restoration through the £750m Nature for Climate Fund.

"Our negotiators played an important role at the COP28 summit to help bring an ambitious Global Goal on Adaptation to life and as a leading nation on climate adaptation, the UK is well placed to achieve these ambitions in full."

The publication of the CCC's NAP3 assessment comes barely a fortnight after the Committee advised the government against "carrying forward" surplus emissions from its Third Carbon Budget, arguing such a move would weaken climate action and threaten the UK's chances of meeting its long-term climate goals.

In related news, the govenrment today published its official response to the National Infrastructure Commission's (NIC) recent study on reducing the risks of surface water flooding.

The response accepted some of the the principles behind a number of the Commission's recommendations, but it prompted warnings from the NIC that the government's "plan of action does not meet the scale of the challenge" and makes few new commitments on steps to manage surface water flood risk more actively.

The government agreed to consider further the merits of adopting targets for tackling surface flooding risk, while continuing work on developing a national set of indicators to monitor trends. It also acknowledged the case for closer co-operation between different levels of government and different agencies to improve the response to flood risks.

But the response stopped short of making any new commitments to remove the barriers to joint working, and did not accept the case for devolving capital funding directly to local authorities to implement joint local plans.

"Our analysis confirmed what many urban residents know - that surface water flooding is a serious and growing risk," said Prof Jim Hall, commissioner at the NIC. "More extreme weather and expanding development could increase the number of properties in England in areas of high risk from 325,000 to over 600,000 by 2055 if action is not taken.

"We recommended a package of measures to get a grip on the problem, which would mean that 250,000 cease to be at high risk of surface water flooding while boosting protection levels for thousands more. Sadly, government's plan of action does not meet the scale of the challenge, and lacks the urgency required to meet the threat. It's been over a year since government promised to implement legislation to end the automatic connection of new developments to the drainage system. It must get on with this as soon as possible... Time is not on our side and government must accelerate its work on its proposed flood resilience metrics and reducing the impact of new development to help bridge the gap."

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