Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


  318  AXPZ20 KNHC 130342 TWDEP  Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Mar 13 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC.  ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  A trough extends from 07N77W to 06N90W to 04N110W. The ITCZ  continues from 03N110W to 04N125W to 03N140W. Isolated moderate  convection is noted within 90 nm north of the trough between 90W and 100W and also within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 115W and 130W.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  Moderate to fresh NW winds are funneling along the west coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to the pressure  gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and lower  pressures over western Mexico. Pulses of strong winds may be  north of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the area of these  winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate mostly variable winds and  moderate seas in mixed long- period southerly and northwesterly  swell are over the remainder of the area.  For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse  offshore western Baja California through Thu morning due to the  pressure gradient between high pressure over the Pacific and low  pressure northwest of Baja California Norte. This pattern will  also support a brief pulse of fresh to strong winds over the  northern Gulf of California Thu. Long period northwest swell will continue SW to the Revillagigedo Islands, building seas 8 to 10  ft through Wed. A second set of 12 to 14 ft long period NW swell  will impact the offshore waters north of 27N Wed night into Thu  night before it begins to subside.   ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR  Fresh to strong NE to E winds are present within the Gulf of  Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. High pressure  building north of the western Caribbean supports these winds  along with pulsing fresh to strong NE winds in the Gulf of  Panama, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas are across the remainder of the region.  For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support fresh  to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region  through Fri morning, while the winds in the Gulf of Panama will  diminish this evening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas  between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will continue through  the forecast period.   ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  High pressure dominates these waters, and it is driving the weather pattern. The pressure gradient between the 1029 mb high  pressure near 34N138W and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to strong easterly winds from 05N to 20N mainly west of 120W, where combined seas are 8 to 11 ft. Elsewhere from the equator to 25N west of 115W, moderate to fresh trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.   Looking ahead, fresh to localized strong trade winds will  continue through Wed night. Seas will remain 8 to 11 ft with  these winds before beginning to subside Wed night through Fri.  Another set of 12 to 14 ft long period northwest swell will  impact the waters north of 28N and east of 125W Wed night into  Thu night before it begins to subside. Yet, another set of long-  period northwest swell will enter the far northwest waters  beginning Fri morning and propagate southeast through the  weekend.  $$ Mora