Most US Fed districts report little or no change in economic activity

The Beige Book, officially known as the Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District, is a report published by the United States Federal Reserve eight times a year. Each Beige Book is issued approximately two weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to decide on monetary policy, making its publication period roughly every six weeks.

Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holidays by meeting expectations in most districts and by exceeding expectations in three districts, including in New York, which noted strong holiday spending on apparel, toys, and sporting goods, according to the latest Beige Book.

In addition, seasonal demand lifted airfreight volume from e-commerce in Richmond and credit card lending in Philadelphia.

Contacts from nearly all districts reported decreases in manufacturing activity.

Overall, most Fed districts indicated that expectations of their firms for future growth were positive, had improved, or both.

Seven districts described little or no net change in overall employment levels, while the pace of job growth was described as modest to moderate in four Districts. Two districts continued to note a tight labour market.

However, nearly all districts cited one or more signs of a cooling labour market, such as larger applicant pools, lower turnover rates, more selective hiring by firms and easing wage pressures.

Six districts noted that their contacts had reported slight or modest price increases, and two noted moderate increases. Five districts also noted that overall price increases had subsided to some degree from the prior period, while three others indicated no significant shift in price pressures.

Firms in most districts cited examples of steady or falling input prices, especially in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

Districts also noted that increased consumer price sensitivity had forced retailers to narrow their profit margins and to push back in turn on their suppliers' efforts to raise prices.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)