Kevin Doyle: Hubris as big as the budget for the Children’s Hospital and six other reasons the referendums fell

1 Hubris as big as the budget for the Children’s Hospital

On days like this, the phone tends to hop for those of us who move in political circles. There are messages from those spinning the unbelievable and those relishing in the chaos. My favourite today came from a seasoned backroom player who summed up the problem facing Leo Varadkar’s coalition.

“Their hubris is as big as the budget for the National Children’s Hospital. And they are too busy protesting the Minister for Fun and Fiascos. They are completely detached from reality,” the text read.

The analysis is on the money. This Government has lost the narrative on all of the big topics, including RTÉ which was for so long a scandal not of their making. Catherine Martin brought it to their door right in the middle of the referendum campaign.

2 International Women’s Day versus Irish mammies

For decades the political wisdom has prevailed that the section of the constitution focused on the woman’s “life within the home” was outdated, sexist and limiting. It’s hard to argue otherwise – but the Government actually made this referendum about something else with a half-hearted attempt at de-gendering the clause.

Much was made about the fact that voting was set for International Woman’s Day as obviously women who stand up for themselves and the menfolk would go along with it. The symbolism was lost because No campaigners were able to argue that this was an attempt delete the role of mother from society.

And let’s be honest, while some NGO make a big song and dance about International Women’s Day, real people are far more aware that tomorrow is Mother’s Day. And we all love our Irish mammies.

3 A conscious uncoupling of durable relationships

Irish Independent writer Sinéad Ryan had a great line in a column about why she planned to vote no.

“I’ve been in a number of durable relationships,” she wrote a couple of weeks ago. “Only two of them ended in marriage. Did I love the other people in those relationships? Sure. For those years of commitment. Would I attest to it in a court? At the time, yes. Now, no. So who is to define durability?”

The debate around how a durable relationship compares with marriage raged throughout the campaign and left people confused. At one point the neutral chair of the Electoral Commission suggested a durability test could include whether you send Christmas cards as a couple or go to weddings together. That didn’t wash with people.

4 Leo and Micheál completely fluffed their lines

Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin made things worse for the Yes side rather than better with their TV performances.

The Taoiseach had to try clarify comments he made on Virgin Media which seemed to play down the role of the State in caring and push responsibility back onto families. The No side pounced on a clip that was widely circulated on social media.

And the Tánaiste’s attempted “prophet of doom” takedown of conservative barrister Maria Steen on RTÉ’s Prime Time flopped when he accused her of campaigning for No on divorce. She’s far too young.

Other ministers failed too. The Attorney General’s advice on the referendums was leaked in the hours before polling and as a result the Green Party’s Roderic O’Gorman faces accusations of attempting to mislead voters. And did you know Heather Humphreys was Fine Gael’s Director of Elections for the referendums? Probably not because she was barely seen and definitely didn’t display any of the feisty passion she’s famed for among colleagues.

5 Mary Lou – where were you?

All the main political parties were in favour of Yes, not that you’d really know. They will spend the next 48 hours engaged in a blustering blame game – but if they actually believed in the amendments, they might have fought a bit harder for the change themselves.

The country’s largest party, Sinn Féin, launched their almost invisible Yes campaign on February 20 by lashing into the Government for a ‘missed opportunity’ and promising a rerun if the vote failed. Not exactly the language of politicians who actually wanted the referendums to get through.

Mary Lou McDonald was largely absent from the campaign trail but you can bet she’ll be all over the airwaves in the coming days telling us why it’s the Government’s fault.

Speaking at Dublin Castle, Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik managed to use the word ‘government’ five times in a singular sentence summing up her thoughts on the defeat. .

6 The No side asked the right questions… and ministers didn’t have the answers

I recall a conversation in the newsroom when this referendum was first mooted that ran along the lines of ‘who will be the No side?’ Step forward Michael McDowell. Not a universally popular politician but he has pedigree as a former justice minister and attorney general.

McDowell was omnipresent during the campaign. RTÉ could have charged him rent for the amount of time he spent in Montrose in recent weeks.

He asked the right questions, and that’s all you really have to do in these referendums. If the Yes side haven’t got the answers then the logic stands that ‘if in doubt, leave things as they are’. The vagueness words like ‘strive’ was major problem for the Yes side and they never managed to nail down a consistent explanation for the language used in the proposals.

Senator Tom Cloonan also played a key role in the Care referendum by convincing voters that the changes were an insult to carers. We know from the same-sex marriage and abortion referendum that personal stories are much better than political soundbites.

7 Low stakes – people simply didn’t care that much

When the stakes are this low, people disengage. That’s probably one of the reasons so many are now citing ‘confusion’. People didn’t see any tangible benefit to voting at all, never mind voting Yes. They didn’t spend time getting to grips with the issues.

Combined with a weak campaign, this always left it possible that the pendulum would swing away from change in the final days. Remember these are the voters who decided to keep the Seanad.