Happy fourth round day — one of the most frenetic nights of the entire N.C. High School Athletic Association calendar. There are four games per classification, all at higher seeds, all in front of sold-out crowds, all with a trip to the regional final on the line.
This year, going to the final four round means a new rally cry: "Going to Winston!" It's not as catchy as "Road to Raleigh" is in some sports, but getting to play in this format is a great reward for tonight's winners.
To preview this action, we give you four storylines to look for and a recap of how all those predictions went for us.
But first, get caught up on our basketball coverage with the links below:
The Games
Boys
- 4A West: (1) Myers Park vs (5) North Mecklenburg / (2) Lake Norman vs (11) Chambers
- 4A East: (1) New Hanover vs (12) Panther Creek / (2) Richmond vs (3) Green Level
- 3A West: (1) Hickory vs (4) Southern Guilford / (2) Central Cabarrus vs (14) Ben L. Smith
- 3A East: (1) Swansboro vs (4) Seventy-First / (3) Southern Durham vs (2) Westover
- 2A West: (1) Reidsville vs (12) West Stokes / (2) Salisbury vs (6) Randleman
- 2A East: (1) Farmville Central vs (4) Northwood / (2) Goldsboro vs (14) Fairmont
- 1A West: (1) South Stokes vs (5) Thomasville / (2) Corvian Community vs (3) Bishop McGuinness
- 1A East: (1) Wilson Prep vs (4) Southern Wake / (2) Washington County vs (11) Bertie
Girls
- 4A West: (1) Watauga vs (4) Myers Park / (2) Lake Norman vs (3) Charlotte Catholic
- 4A East: (1) Hoggard vs (5) Richmond / (2) Rolesville vs (6) Chapel Hill
- 3A West: (1) A.C. Reynolds vs (5) Ben L. Smith / (2) West Rowan vs (3) East Lincoln
- 3A East: (1) South Central vs (4) Western Alamance / (2) Cape Fear vs (3) Terry Sanford
- 2A West: (1) North Wilkes vs (12) Lincoln Charter / (2) East Rutherford vs (3) East Burke
- 2A East: (1) North Pitt vs (12) West Craven / (3) Seaforth vs (15) St. Pauls
- 1A West: (1) Mountain Heritage vs (4) Albemarle / (2) Bishop McGuinness vs (3) Cherokee
- 1A East: (1) Falls Lake vs (12) East Bladen / (3) East Columbus vs (10) Pamlico County
Four Storylines No One's Talking About (yet)
There is nothing easy in the fourth round — Isaiah Evans and North Mecklenburg must take on defending 4A champion Myers Park while Drake Powell and Northwood must take on defending 2A champion Farmville Central. There's a chance all four end their careers on the same night, and there's a chance all four are in Winston-Salem next week.
More than likely? Some make it, some don't, and we get entertaining championships and regional finals no matter who makes it.
Running it back?: We usually have a few defending champs who are knocked out by now, as well as a few reigning runners-up. But this year? We still have a possibility of a complete rematch in 4A boys and 2A boys (the only reason we don't have one in 3A is Northwood moved down from 3A to 2A).
In total, last year's four girls' title games still have the 4A runner-up (Lake Norman), 3A champ (West Rowan), 2A runner-up (Seaforth), and 1A champ (Bishop McGuinness) alive. On the boys' side you've got both 4A finalists (Myers Park and Richmond), both 3A finalists (Central Cabarrus and Northwood, which is now in 2A), both 2A finalists (Reidsville and Farmville Central), and 1A champ Wilson Prep.
We're also getting some fourth-round matchups that were regional finals last year, like Charlotte Catholic and Lake Norman's girls or Myers Park and North Meck's boys.
RPI justifies itself: You have to be careful when someone complains about RPI. Chances are they don't like a seed that's been affected by something other than RPI, like the NCHSAA's policy of not letting any other seeds be higher than 1-seeds.
On the boys' side, all eight 1-seeds and all eight 2-seeds advanced to the fourth round. Five of the 3-seeds did, and so did four (half) of the 4-seeds.
That means the state quarterfinalists only include seven teams who were not seeded 1-2-3-4. But wait, there's more!
Five of those seven are from conferences where BOTH of the top-two teams in their respective leagues are still alive (Panther Creek/Green Level, Chambers/North Mecklenburg, etc.). That's not an RPI failure, but a result of seeding 1-seeds on the top line. Fairmont was actually a co-conference champ who lost a tiebreaker. Again, not an RPI thing. Randleman, the 6-seed, is the only team that fits neither description.
On the girls' side, every 1-seed made it, all but one 2-seed did, and all but one 3-seed did. Now, five of the eight 4-seeds are knocked out, so there are more Cinderella stories in these brackets than the boys' side. Some of the lower seeds can be explained by a co-conference champ who lost a tiebreaker still being alive (St. Pauls) and two teams who are still alive along with their conference's top seed (East Bladen/East Columbus, West Craven/North Pitt).
Just remember the gist of these numbers the next time someone wants to overhaul the NCHSAA playoffs (for seemingly the 47th time in the last six years) because they're mad the wrong sub-.500 team made the playoffs as one of the last teams in.
Top conferences: OK, let's give some credit to the conferences that still have two teams alive. On the boys' side: Queen City Athletic (North Meck and Chambers), Southwest Wake (Green Level and Panther Creek), Mid-State 3A (Southern Guilford and Ben L. Smith), Mid-State 2A (Reidsville and West Stokes), and Four Rivers (Washington County and Bertie). On the girls' side: Eastern Plains (North Pitt and West Craven), and Waccamaw (East Columbus and East Bladen).
How We Did on Postseason Picks
Before the playoffs began we did a breakdown of each region, 16 in all, that included things like "best first-round matchup," "best chance at an upset," "hardest road," "easiest road," "top 10 players in the bracket," "four favorites and a dark horse," and championship/regional final picks.
Here's a list of our best hits and worst misses:
Worst misses
- We named top 10 players in the 4A West boys' bracket and left off sophomore Tarris Bouie, who had been red-hot at the end of the year. Yes, the bracket was loaded, and yes, we gave credit to almost all seniors, but Bouie dropped 40 points at Weddington on Tuesday. Whoops.
- We had absolutely nothing on the Pamlico County girls, who are in the "elite 8" as the 10-seed.
- Let's not talk about our 4A girls predictions, OK? You didn't see anything!
Best hits
- We called them dark horses on the boys' side, and they're still alive: Panther Creek, Chambers, Fairmont, West Stokes, and Bertie.
- Calling Chapel Hill, the 6-seed, as one of the "four favorites" was a roll of the dice we hit on in the 4A East girls.
- We nailed the boys' "four favorites" — as in they are the last four left standing — in the 3A East and 1A West. We did the same on the girls' side in the 3A East, 3A West, and 1A West.
- All of our boys' regional final picks are alive in the 4A West, 3A East, 3A West, 2A East, 2A West, 1A West, and 1A East. For the girls' side, they're still alive in the 3A East, 3A West, 2A East, and 2A West. Not too bad at all.
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