The Red Sox aren’t likely to do any big spending on the free-agent market, but they’re close to making a significant financial commitment to a burgeoning homegrown star.
Multiple industry sources confirmed Alex Speier’s report for the Boston Globe, that the Sox are in “advanced talks” with Brayan Bello on a contract extension that would keep the homegrown starting pitcher in Boston beyond 2028, the final year of club control. One source believes Bello’s deal is already done, pending a physical, or very close.
It’s only been two weeks since Bello confirmed that his agents were discussing an extension with the club, and said they were “mas or menos” – Spanish for ‘more or less’ – close to an agreement. However, a source told the Herald that this has been a long time coming, with the Sox approaching Bello, Triston Casas, and other unnamed players during Chaim Bloom’s tenure. (Casas confirmed his own extension talks days earlier, but said there had been “nothing enticing” offered at that point.)
The contract framework is likely to include a signing bonus and some form of bonus structure. One source with knowledge of the negotiations cited the six-year, pre-arbitration extensions recently given to two young starting pitchers as relevant benchmarks: the Atlanta Braves are paying Spencer Strider $75 million, while Hunter Greene is getting $54 million from the Cincinnati Reds. Both deals run from 2023-28 with a ’29 club option.
With AAVs of $12.5 and $8.83 million, respectively, either deal would be a comfortable models for Boston from both overall financial commitment and luxury tax standpoints. The source suggested Bello will end up signing for somewhere in between, but said there’s also a ‘good case’ for him to slot behind Greene. On Wednesday evening, Dominican journalist Yancen Pujols reported that Bello and the Sox are “close to signing” an extension for at least five years and more than $50 million, with an official announcement to come when the Sox are in Bello’s native Dominican Republic this weekend for two games against the Rays.
From a payroll-planning standpoint, there are several ways for the Red Sox to approach a long-term commitment to Bello (or others). They can sign him to a one-year deal for this year and have the extension begin next season, as they did with Rafael Devers. The third baseman signed a franchise-record 10-year, $313.5 million pact last offseason but it begins this year. His $17.5 million ’23 salary, agreed to for his final year of arbitration eligibility, helped the Red Sox reset their luxury tax penalties as they’d exceeded the Competitive Balance Threshold the season before.
For the next decade the average annual value (AAV) of Devers’ contract puts $29.15 million on the luxury tax payroll. While that’s their largest financial commitment by far, it’s worth remembering that it will count for less and less of their luxury tax payroll each year, as the CBT increases. He’s also currently their only guaranteed financial commitment beyond 2027.
However, having Bello’s contract begin this year would also keep the AAV down over the duration of a longer contract, which would help the Sox dole out further extensions to other members of the young core whom they’d like to retain. They can also utilize deferrals; any deferred salary paid after the term of a contract is calculated using present-day value, thereby lowering the AAV. Of course, the Sox have the financial flexibility to start paying Bello now – Spotrac estimates their tax payroll to be less than $200 million – but ownership has set their own budgetary limitations under this year’s $237 million threshold.
The righty is coming off a solid season and poised to take a significant step forward. He dominated for the vast majority of his first full year in the Majors; after struggling in a brief, frigid season debut on Marathon Monday, he posted a 2.70 ERA and held batters to a .231 average and .660 OPS over his remaining 14 starts before the All-Star break. He owned a 3.57 ERA on the season before a tough September – 7.62 ERA, 22 earned runs in 26 innings over five starts – damaged his overall solid stat line.
Bello also just spent another offseason training with Pedro Martinez at the Hall of Famer’s home in the Dominican. Martinez believes his protégé has the talent to win multiple Cy Young Awards.
If that ends up being the case, giving Bello a contract like Strider’s or Greene’s will be a steal.
