Nikki Haley appears destined to be remembered as an American Cassandra. The former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor warned Republicans against rallying behind Donald Trump for a third straight presidential election, both because she doesn’t think he can win in November and because she rejects his crude repudiation of traditional conservative principles. Though a meaningful swath of the GOP gravitated toward her message, she failed to win any primaries except D.C. and Vermont, got swamped on Super Tuesday, and suspended her campaign the next day.
Ms. Haley’s defeat confirmed Mr. Trump’s domination of the Republican Party, extinguishing the last hope of “Never Trump” conservatives that the former president could be stopped if only he faced a head-to-head race against a credible alternative. That might have been true in 2016, but, in hindsight, it’s clear Ms. Haley couldn’t have won the 2024 nomination even if she had cobbled together the GOP blocs that eight years ago supported Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) and then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Her ideas, especially her adherence to internationalism in foreign policy, are just not that popular among Republicans anymore after Mr. Trump attacked them. And her argument that Mr. Trump will be unelectable in November lost credibility with each new poll showing him leading President Biden.
Ms. Haley was out of touch with the GOP primary electorate — to her credit. She talked about the “chaos, vendettas and drama” that follow Mr. Trump everywhere he goes. She accused him of being unable to distinguish right from wrong. She hit him for catering to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. These arguments resonated with suburban women, college-educated Whites, independents and moderates — groups among which she ran relatively well. Yet they failed to convince the many people in the party who have embraced Mr. Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was stolen. Exit polls show that only 3 in 10 Republican primary voters in North Carolina and California on Tuesday believe Mr. Biden legitimately won. Mr. Trump won more than 90 percent of people who see the sitting president as illegitimate.
Bowing out of the race on Wednesday in Charleston, S.C., Ms. Haley nodded to her substantive differences with Mr. Trump. She emphasized the need to stand by Ukraine. “Our world is on fire because of America’s retreat,” she said. “If we retreat further, there will be more war, not less.” Ms. Haley added that Americans “must turn away from the darkness of hatred and division.” Referring to the $8 trillion Mr. Trump added to the national debt during his four years as president, she made one last pitch for fiscal discipline: “Our national debt will eventually crush our economy,” she said.
Ms. Haley congratulated Mr. Trump on his victory but said she’s withholding her endorsement for now — making Mr. Trump earn support. Ever the sore winner, he posted on his social media platform as Ms. Haley spoke that she “got TROUNCED” and complained that Vermont has an open primary, in which Democrats were allowed to vote.
To be sure, the nobility of Ms. Haley’s stand against Mr. Trump was mitigated by her previous participation in his administration. The all-out anti-Trump message of her campaign’s closing days was different from her initial attempts to have it both ways, opposing him this cycle while saying he had been “the right president at the right time.”
In any case, Ms. Haley now joins the millions of Americans who do not feel quite at home politically in either party or, indeed, feel altogether homeless. Ms. Haley’s defeat, coming at approximately the same time as the departure from politics of such moderates as Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah), along with the retirement of 14 House Republicans fed up with that body’s dysfunction, feels like part of a broader center-right collapse. Almost all that’s remaining on the right is the Trump wing of the GOP and those who are willing to do business with it — including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), who despises Mr. Trump but nevertheless just endorsed the former president.
The choice is now between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden. The race will be won in eight months by whichever candidate best appeals to voters who don’t like either of them. Mr. Trump likely won’t try to unify. Mr. Biden should, by criticizing Mr. Trump not just on personality but also on policy, and by laying out a specific vision that inspires a feeling about U.S. democracy many seem to lack: confidence.
