March Madness in the Book: Predicting 2024 mid-major conference champs

The calendar has flipped to March which means it is the most wonderful time of the year for college basketball fans.

March Madness is officially upon us.

While we are still over a week from having the official NCAA Tournament bracket in our hands, the mid-major conference tournaments will be tipping off throughout the week. This means we will soon have teams punch their ticket to the big dance with hopes of being the next Cinderella story. 

That being said, let’s take a look at the early mid-major conference tournaments and where value can be found in the book.

Atlantic Sun

• Favorite: Eastern Kentucky (+140)
• Pick: Eastern Kentucky (+140)

While the Colonels of Eastern Kentucky lost their last two games to end conference play, they will have home-court advantage throughout the A-Sun tournament that tipped off Monday night. Eastern Kentucky boasted a 12-4 record at home this year and went undefeated in conference play on their home court. While Lipscomb is ranked the highest in the A-Sun in Kenpom at 162, the Bison rank 306 in adjusted defense. As the saying goes in March, offense wins games, defense wins championships. With Eastern Kentucky on their home floor and being locked in after two regular season losses to end conference play, I believe the Colonels will earn the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament from the A-Sun. 

Sun Belt

• Favorite: James Madison (+120)
• Pick: Appalachian State (+180)

The Sun Belt or the “Fun Belt” as some people refer to it has been a two-horse race all season. The Dukes of JMU are riding a 10-game win streak entering the conference tournament while App State has won seven straight games and is riding the wave of securing their first outright regular season title since 1978-79. Needless to say, there is no debate about who the top two teams in the Sun Belt are. While JMU is the odds-on favorite and ranked number 62 in Kenpom, App State has already beaten the Dukes twice this year. While it is tough to beat a team three times in the same season, the matchup problems that the Mountaineers pose to the Dukes are serious, and I believe App State will take the conference.

Horizon League

• Favorite: Youngstown State (+195)
• Pick: Youngstown State (+195)

While the Horizon League is seen as one of the weakest conferences in college basketball with teams such as Detroit Mercy and IUPUI, it should not overshadow the rest of the teams vying for a title. The Penguins of Youngstown State are the two-seed behind Oakland, whom they have lost to twice this year. Despite this, Youngstown is still favored higher in Kenpom with a more balanced team and a stronger defense. With how competitive the top half of the Horizon League is between these two teams and others such as Green Bay and Wright State, this will be one of the most exciting conference tournaments of the week. With Youngstown having the top defense in the conference, I give the edge to the Penguins to punch their ticket to March Madness.

Big South

• Favorite: High Point (-120)
• Pick: UNC Asheville (+350)

While the Big South has seemingly been High Point dominating all season, the Bulldogs of UNC Asheville should not be glossed over in this conference. These teams split their regular season series with both games decided by a five-point margin. High Point is the odds-on favorite because they have the 30th-ranked offense in the nation according to Kenpom, relying heavily on playing fast and getting to the free-throw line. High Point is the number-one team in the country in free throws made per game and has the ninth-highest-scoring offense in all of college basketball. That being said, UNC Asheville has already shown they have the winning formula against High Point, and with +350 odds and unpredictability of conference tournaments, my pick is the Bulldogs.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings. For more, click here. 

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