000 AXNT20 KNHC 050439 TWDAT   Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Mar 5 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  0430 UTC.  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...  The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W, then  curves southwestward to 02N20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 06N between 13W and 20W. Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicates the return of a coherent ITCZ, from 02N20W to 03S39W. Scattered showers are near the ITCZ.  GULF OF MEXICO...  Surface observations across the northern Gulf waters indicate reduced visibilities of 3 nm or less due to fog and haze. In  coastal waters, local NWS Weather Forecast Offices have issued  Dense Fog Advisories for visibilities of 1/2 nm or less. Please  visit www.weather.gov for additional information on the Dense Fog  Advisories for coastal waters.  A sharp surface trough is along the north-central Gulf coast,  from 30N88W to 27N96W. Scattered moderate convection is north of  28N between 83W and 91W. The nighttime trough is analyzed along  the western Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate E to SE winds prevail  across the Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas.  For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will  prevail over the central and eastern Gulf through Tue evening.  Gentle to moderate SE to E winds will resume across the basin Tue  night through Thu. By Thu night, fresh to strong SE winds will  develop in the central Gulf ahead of the next cold front forecast  to move off the Texas coast Fri. The front will reach from the  Florida panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico Sat. Otherwise, the dense fog will continue to affect most of the northern Gulf of Mexico  coastal and NW offshore waters tonight through Tue morning.  CARIBBEAN SEA...  A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the north-  central Atlantic to the northern Caribbean. This ridge combined with lower pressure over northern Colombia supports a tight pressure gradient across much of the basin. Fresh to strong trades  and 7 to 9 ft seas are in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to  strong trades are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh trades are elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 2-4 ft in the lee of Cuba.  For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support  pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-central  Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the week. Gentle to  moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.   ATLANTIC OCEAN...  The Special Feature for Significant Swell has been cancelled. Seas remain 8-11 ft in 9-10 second NE swell from 20N to 30N between  40W and 70W. This area of elevated seas is forecast to shrink and  shift eastward over the next couple of days. Seas are 4-7 ft  elsewhere over open waters. Gentle to moderate trades prevail  across the basin south of 20N, with fresh trades evident north of  20N per the latest satellite scatterometer data.   For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and rough  seas across the offshore waters N of 22N and east of 65W will  continue to decrease tonight, with winds and seas gradually  decreasing over much of the area through the week. Winds and seas  will increase off NE Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold  front forecast to move off the coast of Florida Wed evening. The  front will then move eastward across the far northern waters  through the end of the week.   $$ Mahoney