North-east developments looking ominous, more Tripura-like breakthroughs needed

The Manipur High Court recently rescinded the contentious portions of a March 2023 order which had directed the state government to consider the inclusion of the Meitei community in the Scheduled Tribe (ST) list. Kuki-Zo groups are satisfied that the long-standing demand of the Meiteis for ST status was quashed by the High Court while being very suspicious about the government's intention to use both armed civil society militias and security forces to quell sporadic unrest in the tribal southeast.

While the Kuki-Zos rejected the earlier court order of March 2023, the Meiteis dismissed this one. The discontent remains. In this backdrop the central government has tried to address the crisis by closing the border with Myanmar owing to – firstly – its internal strife and secondly to appease the Meitei community who alleged that the Myanmar’s infiltrators are changing Manipur’s demography.

However, amidst one or more critical problems in every state of the North-east, a significant breakthrough was achieved on Saturday when the Centre signed a tripartite agreement with Tipra Motha, the party of the indigenous people of the state.

Myanmar Conundrum

It is a fact that infiltration from Myanmar is continuing – with or without the civil war – but to blame the people for entering India is unfortunate as neither the border was drawn by them nor they can be held responsible for the treaty – Free Movement Regime (FMR) – to explore economic opportunities.

The political continuum of the North-east was interrupted by Britishannexation, and the FMR – in place since 2018 – was rolled out to facilitate India’s Act East policy. The Indian government, however, cannot continue to challenge its frontiers in the face of a civil war and thus New Delhi had to announce a plan to fence its 1643 kilometre border with Myanmar while suspending FMR.

It immediately triggered reaction from at least two states of the North-east – one in which BJP is in the ruling coalition – Nagaland, and Mizoram. Chief Ministers of both the states questioned the plan. Powerful political organisations like NSCN-IM or Indigenous Tribal Leaders Forum and a host of Kuki civil society groups, student bodies and women’s forum have opposed the plan.

The problem of Kukis of Manipur has now resonated with the larger Zo community in the area and the Mizoram assembly has adopted a resolution unanimously opposing both the FMR scrapping and border fencing. Moreover, there is now a call to unite the ethnic Mizos living in Myanmar and India. Nagas too have flagged ethnic connection with their counterparts in Myanmar.

The risk and timing of such flagging has not gone unnoticed and even members of India’s security establishment – like former Chief of the Army Staff General (retired) MM Naravane – has urged the government to reconsider the decision to fence the border.

Immediate Trigger – CAA

The BJP-led government has announced that the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), 2019, will be implemented before the Lok Sabha elections. The interesting bit about this law is how it is perceived differently by the communities in east India. A section of Bengalis – predominantly Hindus – who have been entering Bengal welcomes the Act arguing that they are not yet legitimate citizens. The immigrants are largely accepted in Bengal, being ethnically connected. Therefore, CAA implementation may not be a major problem in Bengal despite probable protests from the anti-BJP bloc.

The concerns are the diametric opposite in the North-east.

In the North-east, a section of both the Hindus and the Muslims are considered outsiders as they are not connected ethnically. Many of the tribal communities argue that they are way too tiny in size compared to a gigantic neighbourhood language group – the Bengalis, collectively nearly 300 million – or economically powerful Marwaris, or Biharis.

So, it is argued that the ethnically different outsiders can outnumber the locals both arithmetically and economically if the Assam Accord is not respected. The 1985 Accord fixed the foreigner identification cut-off date on March 24, 1971, while CAA has set the cut-off date on December 31, 2014. Despite the exemption to tribal areas in CAA, communities believe that the late entrants will use the 2019 law to legally grab land.

Assam’s opposition have warned the central government against the implementation, and the civil society has already hit the streets. Considering the earlier CAA-related unrest in the North-east, the states and the central government are working overtime to limit flare-ups.

Tripura-Like Actions Needed

There are a series of other issues with potential to trigger localised or large-scale crises. This is where the breakthrough in Tripura involving a tripartite agreement between the government of India, government of Tripura and the main tribal party Tipra Motha to "amicably resolve" all issues of the indigenous people covering areas from political rights to culture, becomes important.

However, other long-standing issues like finalisation of agreement with the Nagas, addressing the sovereignty question and the stand-off between indigenous groups and Chakmas in Arunachal, could all get traction before the Lok Sabha polls. One other factor, is the brewing insecurity among Muslims in Assam and Christians in Meghalaya and other parts, which underscores that everything is not hunky-dory in the North-east.

With the opposition failing to flag the discontents, the central government may need a separate grievance redressal mechanism considering the North-east’s past and politics. Or the issues are likely to snowball as it did in Manipur.

Suvojit Bagchi is a Kolkata-based journalist who previously worked with Ananda Bazar Patrika, BBC World Service and The Hindu. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.