Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


  000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020254 TWDEP  Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Mar 2 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC.  ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  The ITCZ extends from 04N91W to 04N140W. A second ITCZ is south  of the Equator, extending from 03S86W to 03S124W. Scattered  moderate convection is S of 05N between 110W and 125W.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja  California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with seas  of 4 to 6 ft. Similar wind speeds are noted in the southern Gulf  of California while light and variable winds are noted in the  central part of the Gulf. Gentle southerly winds prevail in the  northern part of the Gulf of California, with seas generally near 1 to 2 ft. Seas in the 3 to 4 ft range are noted near the entrance to the Gulf of California, and between Los Cabos and Las Marias  Islands. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters,  moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are  observed.  For the forecast, a weakening cold front will move across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte on Sat. Strong high pressure will follow the front. As a result, fresh to strong NW  winds will develop W of the Baja California peninsula by early  next week. NW swell preceding the front will build seas to 12 ft  W of Baja California Norte beginning on Sun. This swell event  will propagate across the entire Baja California offshore waters  by Sun night. At this time, seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected.  ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR  High pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to  strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region.  Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate N winds are in  the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near 04N, along with  seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and  slight to moderate seas continue.  For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region tonight, then again Sat night with seas building to 6 to 8 ft.  In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 3  to 5 ft will prevail over the next several days. Elsewhere, light  to gentle winds are expected with seas of 4 to 6 ft through Sun, then subsiding to 2 to 4 ft toward mid-week.   ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  A surface ridge dominates most of the forecast waters N of 15N  and W of 110W. A cold front stretches from 30N126W TO 25N140W. NW swell event prevails in the wake of the front, with building  seas to 8 to 13 ft over the NW corner of the area. Fresh trade  winds and seas to 8 ft are affecting the area from 05N to 16N W  of 115W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present  over the remainder of the basin.  For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move SE across the northern forecast waters over the next 24 to 36 hours while weakening. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front. A large set of northwest swell will accompany the front,  with the leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach  the waters NW of a line from 30N118W to 22N130W to 18N140W by  Sat afternoon. This swell is forecast to spread across most of  the waters N of 05N and W of 115W by Sun night with seas  subsiding below 12 ft.   $$ ERA