Michael O'Hanlon: Going may be tough, but there’s no reason for fatalism about outcome of war in Ukraine – yet

A Ukrainian soldier after returning from the trenches of Bakhmut in Chasiv Yar, Ukraine. Photo: AP

Michael O'Hanlon
© Washington Post

Two years after Russia invaded Ukraine and 10 since Vladimir Putin seized Crimea, US support is wavering. If Congress cuts off its help, Ukraine could collapse later this year. Yet the country remains strong in many ways. It has continued to stymie the Kremlin’s greatest ambitions for taking over the country. While the going is tough today, there is no cause for fatalism.

Much has been made of Ukraine’s disappointing counter-offensive last year, but given the strength of defences on both sides, its failure was no huge surprise. Defence is simply stronger than offence at this stage of the war and, because of this, Ukraine might be able to hang on to most or all of the 82pc of the pre-2014 territory it now holds, even with constrained military supplies.