Macquarie Strategists Forecast USA Crude Inventory Build

In a report sent to Rigzone late Tuesday, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up 8.4 million barrels for the week ending February 16.

“This compares to a 12.0 million barrel build for the week ending February 9, with the total U.S. crude balance realizing modestly tighter than we had anticipated, despite the heavy build,” the strategists noted in the report.

“For this week, from refineries, we model a further reduction in crude runs (-0.2 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we anticipate a nominal week on week decrease, with exports higher on a nominal basis (+0.8 million barrels per day) and imports also up (+0.4 million barrels per day),” they added.

“Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance. From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a modest nominal decrease (-0.3 million barrels per day) relative to last week’s strong print,” they went on to state.

In the report, the strategists revealed that they anticipate a 0.7 million barrel increase in Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory on the week.

“At Cushing, our refinery/pipeline model is calling for a build of 0.15 million barrels this week,” the Macquarie strategists added in the report.

“Among products, we look for meaningful draws in gasoline (-4.4 million barrels) and distillate (-2.4 million barrels), with jet stocks minimally lower. We model implied demand for these three products at ~13.6 million barrels per day for the week ending February 16,” they added.

In its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on Valentine’s Day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, rose by 12.0 million barrels from the week ending February 2 to the week ending February 9.

Crude oil stocks in the U.S., not including the SPR, stood at 439.5 million barrels on February 9, 427.4 million barrels on February 2, and 471.4 million barrels on February 10, 2023, that EIA report showed. Crude oil in the SPR totaled 358.8 million barrels on February 9, 358.0 million barrels on February 2, and 371.6 million barrels on February 10, 2023, the report revealed.

In a report sent to Rigzone prior to the release of the EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report, Macquarie strategists said they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 13.9 million barrels for the week ending February 9. In that report, the Macquarie strategists highlighted that they were projecting a 0.8 million barrel SPR build on the week.

In a report sent to Rigzone following the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report, SEB Commodities Analyst Ole Hvalbye highlighted that the latest commercial crude oil inventory figure represented a “2.8 percent rise from the previous week, but still a substantial 6.8 percent decrease from the same period last year”.

“The surge exceeds typical seasonal adjustments, indicating potential reduced crude demand, and a more well-balanced market,” Hvalbe said in the report.

The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is currently scheduled to be released on February 22. It will show data for the week ending February 16.

The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report provides timely information on supply and selected prices of crude oil and principal petroleum products, the report itself notes, adding that it provides the industry, press, planners, policymakers, consumers, analysts, and State and local governments with a ready, reliable source of current information.

The report is prepared by the EIA, which describes itself as the independent statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com