With help from Daniel Lippman

One of Sen. J.D. VANCE’s arguments against sending more aid to Ukraine is that the U.S. can’t promptly produce enough munitions and weapons. He has a point.

At last weekend’s Munich Security Conference, both on the sidelines and on stage, the Ohio Republican and DONALD TRUMP ally countered the prevailing narrative that the West needed to stand by Ukraine.

Here’s what Vance told reporters, including NatSec Daily, outside the Bayerischer Hof hotel: “It would not drastically increase the supply of weapons in Ukraine because we’ve already expended so many of our munitions and resources.”

“The West doesn’t make enough munitions to support an indefinite war. Ukraine doesn’t have enough manpower to support an indefinite war,” he continued, adding since there’s no clear vision of what a Ukrainian victory would look like, it’s better to save lives by pushing Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table.

There are some important caveats to Vance’s argument. No one in Washington or Kyiv, at least, wants the war to last forever. Officials in both capitals note that if the Russians reversed their invasion today, the war, too, would end. Vance also neglects that Ukrainians want to fight for their country and that Russia has shown few signs of wanting to talk. It’s the Ukrainians that are holding multi-country peace talks that the Kremlin won’t join.

But his other concern, that Ukraine wouldn’t be well-equipped even if the supplemental with $60 billion for Kyiv passes the House, has some merit.

Since the U.S. and allies started sending military equipment to Ukraine after Moscow’s invasion, there have been urgent calls for a quick ramp-up in the production of artillery shells, air defense and anti-armor missiles to meet Ukraine’s needs. There’s also worry about restocking warehouses in the U.S. and Europe that have opened their doors to ship gear to Kyiv.

But it takes months — or even years — to boost production lines, and it takes up-front money from governments for companies to hire new, trained workers and increase capacity. It’s a slow-going process.

The standoff is made worse by Congress failing to pass the 2024 defense budget, which should have kicked in on October 1, as well as the Ukraine/Taiwan/Israel/border supplemental, which has been floating around since August. Both bills would have poured money into new production.

“It’s problematic that we’re not sending a consistent signal to industry,” Army Secretary CHRISTINE WORMUTH said at Munich. “Everyone has been focused on the need to get more munitions — we need to speed up the production, but industry is looking at all of the uncertainty around the funding and it doesn’t give them more confidence about spending their own money” without the promise to be reimbursed.

“There’s a lot of temperature making on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue about the longevity of that support,” for Ukraine, and how much cash should be pumped into the defense industry expansion, said one industry adviser, who was granted anonymity to offer their candid view on a controversial issue.

“Production, development and sustainment agreements have to last for years … so there’s a fair amount of assessing about the long-term strategy associated with what’s happening in Europe.”

There has been some movement — the Army has committed to increasing production of 155mm artillery shells from about 28,000 a month to 100,000 a month by the end of 2025 to start replacing the 2 million shells sent to Ukraine. (And eventually, send more once the supplemental passes.)

Boeing has also said it will increase production of Patriot missile interceptors, a critical capability for Ukraine in knocking down drones and ballistic missiles launched at Kyiv and other major cities. That facility should be up and running in 2027.

Neither of those initiatives will help now.

One Ukrainian official at Munich, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said that for every 10 artillery rounds Russia fires at the front today, Ukraine is able to send only one back in the other direction, and the lack of shells is one of the big reasons Ukraine is losing ground, and troops.

In January, the Pentagon released its first-ever national defense industrial base strategy that called for tax breaks, long-term contracts and fewer regulations for the defense industry in order to goose companies into investing more into increasing production.

But that would take Congress to enact new legislation, something that will have to wait for later this year when debate over next year’s defense budget starts. And even then, the impact wouldn’t be felt for years.

The Inbox

NAVALNY SANCTIONS: The Biden administration will unveil a “major sanctions package” targeted at Moscow on Friday in response to the death of Russian opposition leader ALEXEI NAVALNY, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said today, as Matt reports.

The sanctions will “hold Russia accountable for what happened to Mr. Navalny, and quite frankly, for all its actions over the course of this vicious and brutal war that has now raged on for two years,” Kirby told reporters during a call.

Navalny, who was long seen as the most significant political opponent to Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, died in prison on Friday. The death of the 47-year-old, a month before Moscow’s presidential election, sent shockwaves around the world.

President JOE BIDEN warned Putin off of harming Navalny during a 2021 meeting, Alex reports in his new book, “The Internationalists,” released today. Biden also promised “devastating” consequences for Russia if the Kremlin harmed Navalny.

Read: JAKE SULLIVAN’s revolution by Alex (also from the book!)

GIVE US SPACE: One reason U.S. officials didn’t widely disseminate intelligence about Russia’s efforts to develop a new space weapon: The administration was trying to start talks to convince Russia to back off the program, our own ERIN BANCO reports.

Senior intelligence and administration officials had been reaching out to Russia — along with India and China as possible intermediaries — about the project for weeks before it became public, a U.S. official and a person familiar with the outreach told Erin.

The intelligence indicated that Russia might be planning to start tests of the device — a space-based antisatellite weapon with nuclear capabilities, the people said. They added the administration had been worried that if the program became more widely known in Congress or in the public, that might scuttle the nascent efforts to get Russia to abort those tests.

The Biden administration had also worried, they said, that if the details of the intelligence were revealed, the source of that information might dry up.

US FLEXES VETO POWER… AGAIN: The U.S. blocked a U.N. Security Council resolution today that would’ve demanded an immediate humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza, our own MONA ZHANG reports.

As the sole opponent of the Arab-backed resolution, the U.S. is instead pushing its own measure that would call for a temporary pause in fighting linked to the release of hostages. It marks the third U.S. veto of a draft resolution since the war between Israel and Hamas began in October.

It comes as Israel issued new evacuation orders for parts of Gaza City, which has continued to draw concern from world leaders about the country’s military operation expanding into the city of Rafah. As The Associated Press’ WAFAA SHURAFA and SAMY MAGDY report, the evacuation order shows that Palestinian militants are still putting up a fight in the northern part of the Gaza Strip, despite Israel’s military saying it had been mostly cleared weeks ago.

Meanwhile, DAVID CAMERON, Britain’s top diplomat, said the conflict in Gaza must stop “right now,” our own BETHANY DAWSON reports. He urged both Israel and Hamas to work towards a cease-fire “rather than an offensive in Rafah.”

Israeli War Cabinet member BENNY GANTZ said Monday that a ground invasion of the densely-populated city, where over a million Palestinians are sheltering, will begin by March 10 unless Hamas frees hostages.

The situation in Gaza is dire: Some 6,500 people in the territory could die over the next six months due to disease and malnutrition exacerbated by Israel’s military operation, even if the fighting stops, a report by U.S. and British researchers found.

CORBETT ANNIVERSARY: The U.S. says ANNA CORBETT’s husband, Ryan, is wrongfully detained in Afghanistan. Today is their 20th anniversary, and Anna wants the Biden administration to change its approach to bring him home.

Anna wants to condition further contact with and support for the Taliban on Ryan being brought home. In her mind, that means ending humanitarian aid to the country and stopping the transfer of Guantanamo Bay detainees to Afghanistan. “I see the administration giving to the Taliban and Ryan is still in the cell,” she told NatSec Daily. “How can we justify giving so much to the Taliban?”

Anna last saw a photo of her husband on Christmas Day. Ryan, standing at over 6 feet tall with a larger build, had lost about 60 pounds, in Anna’s estimation. She said he looked frail and exhausted. “I could hardly recognize him in the picture.”

Anna said she met last month with Sullivan, the national security adviser, who promised the administration was doing everything possible to bring Ryan home. Her kids gave Sullivan letters written to him, which Anna said he promised to keep on his desk as a reminder of Ryan’s situation. Anna now wants a meeting with Biden to ensure he, too, has her husband in mind.

“I want to make sure he knows that an American citizen that is wrongfully detained is deteriorating in a basement cell,” she told us.

A senior administration official, granted anonymity because the administration doesn’t discuss details of hostage negotiations, said “our ongoing assistance [to Afghanistan] does not in any way preclude U.S. officials from our continuous work pressing for the immediate and unconditional release of all wrongfully detained U.S. nationals in Afghanistan, including Ryan Corbett.” The official also noted that the latest defense-policy bill passed by Congress prohibits the transfer of GTMO detainees to Afghanistan.

GERSHKOVICH HEARING: A Russian court upheld the detention of Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH today, WSJ’s ANN SIMMONS reports. He’ll be behind bars until at least March 30, marking more than a year in detention.

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ELECTION 2024

TRUMP’S NAVALNY NOD: It took DONALD TRUMP three days to mention Navalny’s death, and he didn’t have much to say about it, our own KIERRA FRAZIER reported Monday.

“The sudden death of Alexei Navalny has made me more and more aware of what is happening in our Country,” Trump posted to Truth Social. “It is a slow, steady progression, with CROOKED, Radical Left Politicians, Prosecutors, and Judges leading us down a path to destruction. Open Borders, Rigged Elections, and Grossly Unfair Courtroom Decisions are DESTROYING AMERICA. WE ARE A NATION IN DECLINE, A FAILING NATION! MAGA2024.”

GOP presidential candidate NIKKI HALEY, meanwhile, was quick to blame Putin for Navalny’s death and pointed out over the weekend how Trump had stayed silent on the matter.

“It’s amazing to me how weak in the knees he is when it comes to Putin, because you look at the fact he has yet to say anything about Navalny’s death,” Haley said on “Fox and Friends” on Monday, referring to Trump.

Keystrokes

BLOCKED AND UNBLOCKED: Social media network X briefly blocked the account of Navalny’s wife, YULIA NAVALNAYA, when she gained an influx of followers after creating a profile, our own SERGEY GORYASHKO and CLOTHILDE GOUJARD report.

Navalnaya started the account only a day ago, vowing to continue her late husband’s battle against Putin. The social media network said the ban was a mistake and that it will be updating its procedures.

X had previously restricted the visibility of Navalnaya’s account, shadow-banning (reducing the visibility of) her tweets from search outcomes.

Read: Who is Yulia Navalnaya, Putin’s new enemy? by our own EVA HARTOG and SERGEY GORYASHKO

Also read: Biden has a high-tech problem in Michigan by our own CHRISTINE MUI

The Complex

MUSK-WIN SPACE: Tech billionaire ELON MUSK’s SpaceX won at least one major classified contract with the U.S. government in 2021, WSJ’s MICAH MAIDENBERG and DREW FITZGERALD report.

Documents viewed by the Journal show that SpaceX entered into a $1.8 billion contract but didn’t specify the government customer. The company is also expanding its secretive Starshield program for its national security customers, sometimes characterized as a government equivalent to the company’s Starlink network.

“The size and secrecy of the agreement illustrate a growing interdependence between SpaceX — a dominant force in the space industry — and the national-security establishment,” the outlet wrote.

On the Hill

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CODEL TO ISRAEL: A group of Democratic lawmakers landed in Israel on Sunday on a congressional delegation sponsored by J Street, during which they’ll be meeting with Israeli and Palestinian Authority leadership.

In addition to meeting with leaders, including Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG, Reps. ROSA DeLAURO of Connecticut, MARK TAKANO and SALUD CARBAJAL of California, SEAN CASTEN of Illinois, MADELEINE DEAN of Pennsylvania, and BECCA BALINT of Vermont will travel to the Gaza border to meet with displaced Israelis, families of hostages and Palestinian victims of settler violence.

“This trip comes as Speaker Johnson holds up critical support for Israel and humanitarian aid,” DeLauro said in a statement. “By sending members home before giving us the chance to vote on the Senate’s bipartisan security funding package, House Republican leadership has sent the clear message that getting these funds to the region is not a priority for him.”

Broadsides

AMERICAN ARRESTED: Russian authorities arrested a dual U.S.-Russia citizen suspected of fundraising for the Ukrainian army as it seeks to fight off Moscow’s assault, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA and SERGEY GORYASHKO report.

Moscow’s security service said a 33-year-old woman, who is a resident of Los Angeles, had been detained in Yekaterinburg on charges of “treason” after she participated in fundraising efforts for Kyiv and in pro-Ukraine public rallies. She was identified by our colleagues as KSENIA KARELINA.

Court documents reveal that she was arrested for swearing in public near a movie theater. This is a typical approach used by Russia’s security service — initially detaining people for minor violations in order to seize their electronic devices.

ICYMI — Russian envoys feel the heat over Navalny’s death by our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA

Transitions

— ELISE BOUSQUETTE now works on East Asia and Oceania at the NSC. She most recently worked on partnerships and global engagement at the NSC.

— CHRISTOPHER THUMA is now special assistant to the president and principal deputy legal adviser to the NSC. He most recently was deputy general counsel at ODNI and is a CIA alum.

— The George Mason University’s National Security Institute has made a slew of personnel announcements. It has added NADIA SCHADLOW and NICOLE WASHINGTON to its advisory board; named nine new visiting fellows, KELVIN COLEMAN, KAITLYN GARMAN, DAVID GAUTHIER, HOPE GOINS, DONELL HARVIN, BLAKE LOCKLAR, ANA QUINTANA-LOVETT, NANDINI NARAYAN and DAVID WILEZOL; promoted AUDREY ADAMS and BROCK DAHL to fellow; and promoted MARTHA MILLER to be a senior fellow.

What to Read

— NADYA TOLOKONNIKOVA, The New York Times: Putin Didn’t Hate Navalny. He Envied Him

— SHANNON O’NEIL, Foreign Affairs: The United States’ missed opportunity in Latin America

— BRETT HOLMGREN, Foreign Policy: The age of intelligence diplomacy

Tomorrow Today

— Association of the United States Army, 7:45 a.m.: Discussion with Army Sgt. Maj. MICHAEL WEIMER

— Center for Strategic and International Studies’ International Security Program, 9 a.m.: The data on NATO responsibility sharing

— Intelligence and National Security Alliance, 9 a.m.: Beyond recruitment: cultivating and retaining diverse talent in national security

— Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 11:30 a.m.: Strengthening America’s Asian border: a discussion with Northern Marianas Gov. ARNOLD PALACIOS

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who is never right about anything.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is the wise sage of all that is and ever was.

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