3 thoughts: SDSU 81, New Mexico 70 ... a projected 4 seed, switching ball screens and a next-play mentality

Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 81-70 win against New Mexico on Friday at Viejas Arena:

1. A 4 seed

In the endless comparisons between last season’s team and this one, there’s one area where the current Aztecs may be superior.

It could get a better seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee unveiled its top 16 projected seeds Saturday morning and — surprise! — the Aztecs are a No. 4 seed (and 14^th overall) in the Midwest Region. Last year, they rode a No. 5 seed to the national championship game.

That means nothing and everything. Nothing, because there are still another four weeks of basketball before Selection Sunday on March 17 and a schedule loaded with metrics-exploding land mines (at Fresno State, at UNLV). Everything, because historically there’s not a ton of movement among the top seeds between now and then.

On Selection Sunday last year, 15 of the 16 remained from the month-out projection. The year before, 15 of 16 as well.

“We do know that there’s going to be some movement,” SWAC commissioner Charles McClelland, the chair of the Selection Committee, told the NCAA Bracket Preview Show on CBS on Saturday morning. “These teams have some difficult games coming up. We’ll be watching. I don’t anticipate a whole lot of movement.”

The Aztecs (20-6, 9-4) were already in the conversation given a strong nonconference schedule, the national glow from last year’s magical run and a powerful Mountain West with six teams in the top 50 of the NCAA’s NET metric. Then Friday night’s 81-70 home win against New Mexico, five points better than metrics projected, propelled them from 18th to 15th in NET overnight.

The committee also likely bumped them over Saint Mary’s, which has climbed to 14th in NET but has an inferior résumé that includes a 25-point loss to the Aztecs on a neutral court in November.

The inclusion of SDSU, the only team unranked in the current Associated Press poll among the 16, drew criticism from former Villanova coach Jay Wright, part of the CBS panel on Saturday’s preview show.

“I was with you all the way until San Diego State,” Wright told McClelland. “I had Dayton instead of San Diego State. But San Diego State’s big win against New Mexico puts them here probably.”

McClelland said 16^th-ranked Dayton indeed was considered, as was No. 17 Creighton and unranked Clemson. Dayton is 19 in NET but doesn’t have a top 35 win. Creighton is 18 in NET but has a 21-point loss against the Mountain West’s Colorado State. Clemson is 25 in NET but has a home loss against 142 Georgia Tech staining its résume.

Most bracketologists have SDSU as a 5. The difference between a 4 and 5 is significant, though.

Teams on the 1 through 4 seed lines are protected geographically, meaning SDSU would be sent to one of two western sites for the tournament’s opening weekend, Salt Lake City and Spokane, Wash., this year. Both offer advantages for the Aztecs.

They’re experienced playing at elevation (Salt Lake City is at 4,265 feet), while some poor Midwest team is gasping for air. And they’ve already been to Spokane this season for an 84-74 win at Gonzaga (although tournament games would be 1.5 miles away at Spokane Arena). That also has good vibes from sweeping a pair of NCAA Tournament games there in 2014 en route to a Sweet 16 appearance.

As a No. 5 seed last year, the Aztecs were shipped across the country to Orlando.

Maybe the most encouraging part of Saturday’s unveiling is that they’re not only a 4 seed but have a two-team buffer over dropping to a 5. They’re actually closer to a 3, and the only 4 seed ahead of them, Auburn, promptly lost by double digits at home a few hours after the announcement.

Climbing to a 3 might be a reach with teams like Duke, Iowa State and Baylor ahead of them. More realistic might be consolidating their hold on a 4 and geographic priority for the opening weekend. Figure they need to close the regular season 4-1 and then win a game or two in the Mountain West tournament to do that — very doable.

But the big development from Saturday is this: A No. 4 seed is now clearly theirs to lose.

2. Between the lines

The Aztecs didn’t practice Wednesday following a tough, come-from-behind win against Colorado State. That left them with one day to prepare for a team that handed them their most lopsided loss of the season, 88-70 in Albuquerque on Jan. 13.

They implemented two major adjustments: sending only two players to the offensive boards instead of the usual three in hopes of thwarting New Mexico in transition and making it a halfcourt game, then changing the way they defended ball screens once there.

First game: The Lobos had 24 fast-break points. Friday night: nine.

“We didn’t want to let them get out and run for layups,” Dutcher said. “We wanted to make them beat us in the halfcourt. And I thought when we did that, we were pretty effective, keeping it at a halfcourt game.”

That’s where the second tactical tweak took over.

At New Mexico, the Aztecs guarded ball screens with drop coverage, where the big sinks into the lane to protect the basket and take away the rolling post. But the Lobos turned the corner and got into the paint too easily, making mid-range jumpers or drawing other defenders and kicking to open teammates.

On Friday, the Aztecs switched all ball screens, meaning 6-foot-9 Jaedon LeDee was sometimes on the 6-foot Jaelen House, or 5-10 Darrion Trammell was on 6-10 Nelly Junior Joseph.

The Lobos didn’t get their usual diet of mid-range jumpers, shot 35.5 percent and had 19 turnovers.

“We switched all ball screens so they had to score in different ways,” Dutcher explained. “They’re so good at screen and roll, finding the rolling post, getting shots on that. So we switched and just tried to keep a body in front of a body. There were times where they rolled the bigs in and we had guards on them, and they took advantage of it.

“But I felt we dictated more how they were scoring than they were with their offense. We were able to dictate tempo. The key is our bigs were able to stay in front of their guards when we switched. I think we had a good defensive game plan by the assistant coaches, and the kids followed it basically on a one-day prep.”

3. Between the ears

Think about this: Over the last three halves, the Aztecs have had 32 turnovers … and outscored their opponents by 41 points.

They had 20 against the Lobos, three weeks after committing a program-low two in a game against Wyoming.

“The fact that we turned it over 20 times and were still able to win,” Dutcher said, “is a bit of miracle.”

There are Xs and Os that change games. There also are mental components, and the Aztecs excelled in that area as well Friday.

“Next play,” is something you often hear the coaches bark on the sidelines during games and practices, over and over and over. It is a pillar of their unique culture, something first emphasized by Steve Fisher and continued by Dutcher. As the season goes on, the principle becomes more ingrained in their collective psyche — able to short-circuit the human condition of ruing past transgressions.

Miss a shot? Next play.

Blow a defensive assignment? Next play.

Chuck a pass out of bounds? Next play.

“We’ll have plenty of time to watch tape on Sunday when we get back together to correct things,” said Dutcher, whose team had Saturday off. “But when you’re playing, you can’t sit there and obsess over every mistake or you’re not ready to make the next play. We just try to move on to the next play.

“It’s always easy to say as a coach — ‘next play’ — and hard to do, because as a player you’re frustrated by a call, or you don’t touch the ball, or your guy beats you and then you’re mad over that. You have to move on beyond that, instantly, or on offense you’re not where you’re supposed to be and it compounds the mistakes. We try to have a next play mentality, and the guys are getting better at that.”