
Predicting individual wrestling championships -- and handing out bracket superlatives

The N.C. High School Athletic Association individual wrestling championships are this weekend, Thursday through Saturday.
Before we give our predictions for this year's tournament — team champs, Most Outstanding Wrestler awards, individual champs, toughest weight classes, and more — let's quickly look at what happened a year ago.
Defending team tournament champs:
- 4A - Laney (three-peat)
- 3A - Fred T. Foard
- 2A - Bandys
- 1A - Avery County (four-peat)
- Girls - N/A
Returning individual champs are listed below. All wrestlers are seniors unless otherwise noted.
Returning 4A individual state champs:
- Cam Stinson, Mallard Creek***
- Trevor Freeman, A.L. Brown
- Cooper Davis, Cox Mill
- Grant McCord, Grimsley (junior)
- Ian Fritz, Topsail (junior)
***three titles
Returning 3A individual state champs:
- Charleston Baglio, Central Cabarrus**
- Samuel Aponte, Cape Fear**
- Brayden Mejia, Fred T. Foard**
- Nicholas Mascolino, Union Pines
- Bray Trivette, North Iredell (junior)
- Bently Sly, Stuart Cramer (sophomore)
**two titles
Returning 2A individual state champs:
- Rayshun James, Reidsville**
- Jared Thomas, Morehead
- David McEachern, Mount Pleasant**
- Jaxon Turner, Brevard
- Jose Flores, Southwestern Randolph (junior)
- Elijah Horton, Morehead (sophomore)
**two titles
Returning 1A individual state champs:
- Kage Williams, Robbinsville***
- Alexis Panama, Robbinsville**
- Koleson Dooley, Robbinsville
- Ben Jordan, Avery County
- Grant Reece, Avery County
- Cooper Foster, Avery County (junior)
- Cael Dunn, Avery County (sophomore)
- Lorenzo Alston, Uwharrie Charter (sophomore)
***three titles
**two titles
Now, for a more detailed preview.
Below, we listed favorites and dark horses for the team competition as well as the coveted MOW award. We even did this for the girls' bracket in its first season as an officially-sanctioned NCHSAA championship.
4A
Team favorite — We'll stick with dual champ Davie County, who should get at least one state champ and has a few others that should do no worse than the semifinals.
Team dark horses — Lumberton and Laney are the two that could disrupt a War Eagles sweep of both wrestling championships. Lumberton has five wrestlers ranked in the top four of their weight classes, while Laney could have two state champs and 3-4 other placers as well.
MOW favorite — Cam Stinson, Mallard Creek. If Stinson pulls off the undefeated career with four state titles and zero losses, it would be a travesty if he doesn't win. Is there a chance he doesn't? Absolutely. The 4A coaches have typically voted for wrestlers who went through the toughest bracket or got the biggest upset in the final.
MOW dark horses — Let's say the 4A coaches vote for someone else. I think Colton Campbell of Hickory Ridge would have a shot at it, especially because the 165-pound class is no cakewalk.
Toughest weight class — Let's name three here: 132 has a strong case with Wakefield's Tobin McNair (50-1), Hoke County's Jaylen Bethea (54-0), Mooresville's Austin Green (46-5), and defending champ Cooper Davis of Cox Mill (44-2). So too does 138, which features Cardinal Gibbons' Liam Hickey (49-1), Hough's Jackson Rowling (45-2), and Laney's Tyler Buonocore (44-9). But the strongest? We're going with 157 where Clayton's Pete Winterstein is 39-1, Northwest Guilford's Dylan Pepin is 48-1, and there's also Lake Norman's Eli Muray at 45-3.
State champ picks — 106-Ayden Sumners, Ragsdale; 113-Trevor Freeman, A.L. Brown; 120-Cayden Glass, Davie County; 126-Cameron Stinson, Mallard Creek; 132-Cooper Davis, Cox Mill; 138-Liam Hickey, Cardinal Gibbons; 144-Isaiah Wysong, Laney; 150-Ian Fritz, Topsail; 157-Eli Murray, Lake Norman; 165-Colton Campbell, Hickory Ridge; 175-Hunter Testa, Davie County; 190-Jackson Buck, Lumberton; 215-Johnny Merriman, Mooresville; 285-Deondre Johnson, Clayton
3A
Team favorite — Union Pines might very well have the right wrestlers in the right spots to come away with the 3A tournament title after being denied the dual-team one by Eastern Guilford in a thrilling match. The Vikings have more depth than any other team.
Team dark horses — The tournament success of Cape Fear can't be undersold. The Colts didn't make the dual-team tournament but could have as many as four state finalists. However, they'd need everything to go right. Eastern Guilford is obviously right in this as well and it might take some head-to-head wins over the Vikings.
MOW favorite — Samuel Aponte, Cape Fear. Aponte could go out as a three-time champ, with the first two coming at 106 and his last one at 120.
MOW dark horses — Charleston Baglio of Central Cabarrus is also looking for his third title and could get the nod here (especially since he didn't win his region and can tap into the underdog role). Don't be surprised if Eastern Guilford's Xavier Wilson gets some votes too, as he's in a crowded field at 215 and could finish an undefeated season.
Toughest weight class — The 215-pound class is outstanding. You've got Wilson, Cape Fear's Landon Sargent (36-1), North Henderson's Reese Meadows (51-1) at the top, but there's no guarantee they make it to the finals because of the depth there.
State champ picks — 106-William Hoo-Chocoj, Eastern Guilford; 113-Ethan Brownlee, South Johnston; 120-Samuel Aponte, Cape Fear; 126-Omari Figueroa, Eastern Guilford; 132-Bentley Sly, Stuart Cramer; 138-Charleston Baglio, Central Cabarrus; 144-Stetson Collins, West Rowan; 150-Bray Trivette, North Iredell; 157-Jaelen Culp, Kings Mountain; 165-Brayden Mejia, Fred T. Foard; 175-Brock Sullivan, Union Pines; 190-Tayshaun Glover, Dudley; 215-Xavier Wilson, Eastern Guilford; 285-Elijah Amaya-Perez, Hibriten
2A
Team favorite — Trinity has the depth and top-heavy talent — two wrestlers are ranked No. 1 in 2A and three more are ranked No. 2 — to pull off the 2A title sweep after winning duals.
Team dark horses — Seaforth, the dual runner-up, might get its first state champ this year, but also watch out for Mount Pleasant should the Tigers get a number of its wrestlers into the finals. Morehead is a team that will factor in as well.
MOW favorite — It's probably time Reidsville's Rayshun James got this award. He's been an exciting wrestler at the state finals for the last three years, with a runner-up finish as a freshman followed by back-to-back titles.
MOW dark horses — I could easily see David McEachern of Mount Pleasant, a two-time champ facing a tough 144-pound field, winning this as well as Lincolnton heavyweight Geviaunta Walker. I don't think there's a tougher 285 bracket in the state than in 2A, and Walker is a dominant 53-0.
Toughest weight class — As stated above, it's gotta be 144 or 285. I'll give the edge to 285 because names like Colt Kluttz and Ty Gwyn have been no strangers to all-state consideration in the past.
State champ picks — 106-Gabe Rogers, Seaforth; 113-Elijah Horton, Morehead; 120-Spencer May, Trinity; 126-Jared Thomas, Morehead; 132-Rayshun James, Reidsville; 138-Boedi Kirkland, Newton-Conover; 144-David McEachern, Mount Pleasant; 150-Rakeem Smith, West Caldwell; 157-Connor Ridgell, Wilkes Central; 165-Jaxon Turner, Brevard; 175-Ian Moore, Bandys; 190-Jesus Jarquin, Monroe; 215-Gavin Hardister, Trinity; 285-Geviaunta Walker, Lincolnton
1A
Team favorite — Avery County may have lost the duals to Uwharrie Charter, but the Vikings have four defending state champs and that could put them in prime position to make it five in a row. Not bad for a school that had not won a state title in any sport less than a decade ago.
Team dark horses — Robbinsville and Uwharrie Charter will provide Avery County's stiffest competition. As a whole, the 1A class got a little deeper with Polk County dropping down from 2A a year ago. You never know how that could affect the calculus.
MOW favorite — I don't think anyone would argue against Kage Williams of Robbinsville. He could end his career with one "loss" (he was injured in a Christmastime tournament and didn't wrestle his next opponent, which was scored, by rule, as a forfeit -- that rule as since changed) and four titles.
MOW dark horses — Avery County's Cael Dunn is 57-0 and, to no one's surprise since he's the son of coach Matthew Dunn, on the four-time state champion path. Giving it to the 138-pound champ is also a possibility.
Toughest weight class — Because only about 30 1A schools even have wrestlers, sometimes the toughest weight class comes down to which class might have the toughest final. In this case, it's 138, where Avery County's Grant Reece or North East Carolina Prep's Ryan Mann could be in the final against Alleghany's Cameron Worrick.
State champ picks — 106-Ethan Hines, Uwharrie Charter; 113-Cooper Foster, Avery County; 120-Alexis Panama, Robbinsville; 126-Jason Kennedy, Rosewood; 132-Benjamin Jordan, Avery County; 138-Ryan Mann, North East Carolina Prep; 144-Kenneth Pritz, Avery County; 150-Lorenzo Alston, Uwharrie Charter; 157-Carson Robinson, Uwharrie Charter; 165-Andrew Meadows, Mount Airy; 175-Cael Dunn, Avery County; 190-Kage Williams, Robbinsville; 215-Jaden Maness, Uwharrie Charter; 285-Johnatan Argueta, Starmount
Girls
Team favorite — Havelock may not have won the unofficial dual-team title (it's officially just the coaches association's dual-team invitational) but the Rams have been a tough out in several weight classes this year. Havelock is the No. 1 team in our end-of-regular season rankings.
Team dark horses — Lumberton, Swain County, and Hoke County are probably the only other teams with enough depth to stop the Rams. Hoke County defeated Swain County in the dual-team final.
MOW favorite — If we don't go by the winner of the toughest bracket, look for Kamilah Brooks of Pasquotank County to possibly get the nod. She enters as the highest-rated girls wrestler in the state by RankWrestlers.
MOW dark horses — Lillian Prendergast of South Brunswick could be deserving of some votes if she avenges a recent loss to Corinth Holders' Anna Ockerman. The same could be said of Cary's Alfa G. Dominguez Gutierrez if she knocks off Brooks. The winner at 120, whoever it is, deserves consideration as would Seaforth's Keira Rosemarkle at 152 if she ends the year unbeaten.
Toughest weight class — Two jump out as being the toughest from top-to-bottom: 120, which features two undefeated wrestlers; and 132, which features four with three or fewer losses.
State champ picks — 100-Lillian Prendergast, South Brunswick; 107-Megan Rowland, Pinecrest; 114-Leah Edwards, East Rowan; 120-Kylie Brigman, Lumberton; 126-Kamilah Brooks, Pasquotank County; 132-Kennedie Snow, Havelock; 138-Lylah Cogdill, Swain County; 145-Faith Bane, New Bern; 152-Keira Rosenmarkle, Seaforth; 165-Taylor Williams, East Forsyth; 185-Olivia Gallimore, East Davidson; 235-Wyntergale Oxendine, Lumberton
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