With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

WHY RULE VOTE FAILURES COULD ONLY GET WORSE FOR JOHNSON

Failing to pass a rule. It’s typically a process that leadership gives little thought, a minor bump on the path to passage. This Congress, it’s another bullet point in the incredibly dysfunctional House.

But let’s talk about why this is a particularly bad item on Speaker Mike Johnson’s long list of problems.

First, as most of our readers probably know: A rule is a procedural vote that sets the parameters for debate before a bill comes up for passage. The minority party does not vote for rules, the majority passes them on its own — and if they fail, it blocks the legislation. In most Congresses, that’s not a problem, since members of the majority will approve a rule vote even when they don’t necessarily support passage.

Enter the 118th Congress. Conservatives, especially, have started tanking rules if they don’t support the underlying legislation. Or, sometimes, just to stick it to leadership when they’re unhappy about an unrelated matter.

The latest instance: On Wednesday, the rule vote for legislation to expand the federal deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) was tanked by 18 Republicans, mostly conservatives.

That broke a record. This House is the first one in modern history to have six rule votes — three under former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and three under Speaker Mike Johnson — tanked in one Congress. Before last year, a rule vote hadn’t failed in two decades.

“It’s unfortunate,” House Rules Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told us. “Look, rules not passing weakens the majority. The rule is designed to maximize the chance of passing something on the floor that the majority wants to do, not to be used as a weapon by one group against another group.”

And the latest failure had a bright red warning sign for Johnson. There were a few non-conservatives who voted against the rule because they didn’t support the underlying legislation. That means the rebellious behavior of the existing rabble-rousers is spreading, at least in part because Johnson and McCarthy rewarded the behavior they wanted to exterminate.

One of those members was Rep. David Kustoff (R-Tenn.).

“I’ve never voted against the rule in the majority. (But) I felt strongly about this issue,” he said Thursday.

Johnson’s already bypassed the rules process on a couple critical bills, bringing up votes under a two-thirds threshold that requires him to heavily lean on Democrats. But that, too, will get him into trouble: Hardline Republicans see cooperation with Democrats as a kiss of death. A couple have already floated ousting Johnson if he does it on future bills.

Zoom out: Past House leaders have been open to imposing consequences on members who voted against rules. You’re not seeing that with current leadership.

“When I came in, Pete Sessions was the chairman of Rules. He says: ‘Vote against the rules, I’ll kick your ass.’ And that’s the way it should be. If you don’t like the bill, vote no on the actual bill,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told us. “I wish there were consequences for that kind of behavior.”

History lesson: The last time a rule fell before the 118th Congress was on Nov. 14, 2002, when Dennis Hastert was speaker. The 105th Congress under former Speaker Newt Gingrich approached this term’s number of failures, with the majority losing five rule votes. Gingrich lost a total of six rule votes during his two terms as speaker.

“It’s a different conference, a different time and we’re working on trying to make sure that it doesn’t continue to happen,” Cole said.

But it’s not clear how the House GOP digs itself out of that hole.

— Daniella Diaz and Katherine Tully-McManus, with an assist from Benjamin Guggenheim

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, Feb. 15, where we are very happy for the (almost) long weekend.

DEMS’ CONFUSING LEADERSHIP JOCKEYING

House Democrats’ hottest club right now is the Assistant Democratic Leader. It’s also, possibly, the most confusing.

Rep. Jim Clyburn’s (D-S.C.) vacating of his leadership position is kicking off some quiet down-ballot maneuvering among the House Democratic Caucus. But it’s not just about who takes it, but also where the new person will fit into caucus leadership.

First, here’s who’s in the running: The caucus hasn’t set an election yet for the assistant leader position, but Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.), who currently chairs the caucus messaging arm, has been the first out of the gate. Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), currently the caucus vice chair, is weighing his options, according to a person familiar with the situation.

One potential rival already bowed out. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the Progressive Caucus chair, said in a brief interview: “I’m not running.”

Neguse is earning praise from some senior Democrats. “I think I’m with Joe Neguse,” said Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.). “Joe has done a great job as our message person with the DPCC.”

Now, why it’s all confusing: Clyburn was the only one of Democrats’ big three last Congress to retain a leadership position. This new one was created for him when he dropped down from whip. Here’s the problem: The caucus left some ambiguity around Clyburn’s job and its place in their leadership structure, deferring to the veteran lawmaker.

Clyburn took himself out of the top line of succession, but it’s unclear where his replacement might fall. To resolve the issue, some Democrats are weighing a change to their internal rules to clarify the leadership ranking.

Lawmakers have also begun quietly maneuvering for Neguse’s gig. Rep Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), a co-chair of the messaging arm, will run for Neguse’s chair position if he vacates it, according to a person familiar with the situation. (NBC earlier reported her interest).

Democrats also expect Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.), a current co-chair, and Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), a former co-chair, to make plays.

— Nicholas Wu

NEW YORK REPUBLICANS’ VERY BAD WEEK

After two major flops this week, at least one New York House Republican had some advice for his GOP colleagues to make sure they don’t lose come November.

First, Democrat Tom Suozzi won a highly-anticipated special election for ex-Rep. George Santos’ seat — and by a larger-than-expected margin in more GOP-friendly areas. Then, as noted above, New York Republicans’ proposed SALT bill not only didn’t pass the House, but was blocked from consideration altogether.

New York was critical to the GOP winning its paper-thin House majority in 2022. And whichever way those battleground district Republicans go, so could go the full House.

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) said he believes that the key to Republicans keeping their majority in November is respecting that each lawmaker has different needs to keep a district happy. He suggested that’s not happening right now.

“As a conference, we need to start respecting and understanding — and I think that the New Yorkers have shown that respect and understanding … that although we are from the same party and we fly the Republican banner, the issues that are of utmost importance, the concerns that are in my district, could be very different (in other districts),” D’Esposito said.

He added: “We need to start taking that into consideration and work together to compromise and negotiate to stand strong as a party.”

Another POV: Others indicated they aren’t too worried about the problems this week, arguing neither was a surprise.

“Both incidents (we knew) were going to be difficult,” Rep. Marcus Molinaro (R-N.Y.) told us on Thursday. “The congressional seat, there were a lot of factors that ended up playing against us — but a Biden seat that Democrats outspent Republicans by $20 million results in us potentially losing.”

He added: “Next week, it could be somebody else’s multiple challenges … it just happens to be that these things occurred at the same time.”

— Daniella Diaz

HUDDLE HOTDISH

This Texas Senate race poll is very interesting.

Katie Britt called out “my friend” John Fetterman for his thread celebrating the one-year anniversary of seeking help for his depression. (Former Senate rival Dave McCormick also thanked Fetterman for sharing his story.)

A bipartisan group of House lawmakers voiced support for Ukraine on the Capitol steps.

QUICK LINKS

The government funding fight is about to flare again, from Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes

Dems in California House race spend millions in messy primary battle, from Lara Korte

TRANSITIONS

News: Former Reps. Cedric Richmond (D-La.) and Kevin Brady (R-Texas) are joining the Kidney Care Access Coalition as senior advisers. The Coalition, launched in the fall of last year, is a group of leading kidney care, disability, and patient organizations advocating for passage of H.R. 6860, the Restore Protections for Dialysis Patients Act.

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House meets in a pro forma session at 10 a.m.

The Senate meets in a pro forma session at 3:30 p.m.

FRIDAY AROUND THE HILL

*crickets*

TRIVIA

WEDNESDAY’S ANSWER: Mike Dunn correctly answered that the three current congresswomen who represent districts once won or held by their husbands are Reps. Debbie Dingell, Julia Letlow and Doris Matsui.

TODAY’S QUESTION, from Mike: What were the only two states to reject the 18th amendment (prohibition)?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to [email protected].

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Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.