Republicans have slim path to keep the majority in House

On the Hill

After N.Y., House Republicans have a slim path to keep the majority

House Republican leadership is downplaying the party’s loss in New York’s special election Tuesday night, saying it was a unique contest that should not be seen as a bellwether for the GOP’s chance of keeping House control in November. 

They say: 

• President Biden won the 3rd District by eight points in 2020. Democrat Tom Suozzi won by almost the same margin, coming in at just under eight points. (George Santos, the Republican whose expulsion from Congress in December triggered the special election, also won by eight points in 2022.)
• Republicans tend to vote on Election Day instead of during early voting — and Tuesday’s snow depressed turnout. 
• Suozzi, who represented the district for three terms before relinquishing the seat in 2022 to run for governor, had high name recognition, which was a big advantage over Republican Mazi Pilip, a newcomer. 
• Pilip was outspent by Souzzi and Democratic groups. 
• Voters had a Santos hangover. The disgraced serial liar was kicked out of Congress after being indicted on 23 federal charges.

“There is a fervor among the American people, and it is bipartisan,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said, suggesting that the special election was in no way representative of other districts. “People know that this country is on the wrong track.”

Republican angst

Privately, however, Republicans are increasingly worried about keeping control of the House in November. With just a three-seat majority, hanging on to it is a pure toss-up even in the best circumstances. 

• Other than the 3rd, which will be in play again in November, six districts in New York are up for grabs, including those of Republican Reps. Anthony D’Esposito in the 4th, Mike Lawler in the 17th and Marc Molinaro in the 19th and Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan in the 18th. 
• Six House Republicans are running for reelection in seats that went for Biden by bigger margins that the one Suozzi achieved on Tuesday: Reps. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.), John Duarte (Calif.), Mike Garcia (Calif.), David Valadao (Calif.). D’Esposito and Lawler. All except Valadao are freshmen.

Worse, Republicans fear they have little to show for their House majority.

They weren’t able to pass military support for Israel. Johnson is refusing to put a Senate-passed supplemental to provide aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, plus humanitarian aid for Gaza, on the floor, fearing backlash from the right. Just yesterday, leadership had to pull a bill to extend the authorization of a foreign intelligence law known as Section 702 for the second time because they can’t find the votes. Also last night, a rule to move on to a bill to raise the state and local tax deduction, a key priority for New York Republicans, failed. 

• “Suburban families want us to produce something. Oh, in fact, mind you, they don’t even care what we produce. We got to produce something,” one vulnerable Republican who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the situation freely told us of the path to winning in November.

One strong signal that Republicans are nervous of losing the majority is the significant number of retirements — 22 so far. The latest, Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) — the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee — announced he won’t run for reelection just one day after the House voted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. He’s the fourth committee chair to bow out. 

Bigger than New York

Another encouraging sign for Democrats is that they have performed well in other elections in the past year. The party won a swing seat in the Pennsylvania legislature on Tuesday. In 2023’s off-year elections, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, won his reelection, and Democrats maintained control of the Virginia Senate and won back the state House. (Local elections in New York in November offered mixed signals.)

“There’s a clear pattern,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told reporters, going back to the 2022 midterms when some Republicans expected to win a 30- or 40-seat majority instead of the five-seat one they ended up with. 

“Every place across the country, folks want to see governance work,” said Rep. Suzan DelBene (Wash.), chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “All they see from Republicans has been chaos, dysfunction, extremism and doing everything possible to avoid addressing issues head on.”

Suozzi will have to run for reelection again in November. The New York State Redistricting Commission will vote on new congressional district lines today that could be more friendly for Democrats, upping their chances for picking up seats even in the most difficult of years. 

Spotlight on border

Republicans and Democrats say the New York special showed a clear path to win on immigration. The National Republican Congressional Committee points to 24 districts held by Democrats where Biden won by smaller margins in 2020 than he did in the district Suozzi won on Tuesday. They think the border will play even better in those less Democratic districts.  

Republicans argue Suozzi’s support diminished after they ran ads attacking him for being weak on the border, hurting his image with voters. 

But Democrats argue that Suozzi forged a path to victory by embracing tough border security and attacking Pilip for saying she would join her party in tanking the bipartisan Senate border deal. 

Mondaire Jones, who previously represented part of Lawler’s district and is running against him this year, said Suozzi’s victory vindicated his own strategy of campaigning aggressively on his support for border security.

“People are already talking about it” in Jones’s highly educated, suburban district in Westchester County, he said — and any voters who don’t follow Congress closely enough to know Republicans torpedoed the bill are “going to know by November.”

• “Why would you leave yourself vulnerable to the mistaken impression that somehow Democrats don’t care about having a secure border?” he asked.

Of course, this is a presidential year, and the top of the ticket — probably Biden and Donald Trump — could have a big influence on the down-ballot House races. Each candidate, however, has low approval ratings, providing a level of uncertainty. 

What we're watching

From the courts

Former president Donald Trump faces two high-stakes hearings today in courtrooms hundreds of miles apart. One in New York is over his allegedly falsifying repayment records for hush money given to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election. The other isn’t about Trump directly but could have implications in his criminal case in Georgia. Fulton County District Attorney Fani T. Willis (D) is accused of having an improper personal relationship with Nathan Wade, the lead prosecutor on the sprawling Georgia election interference case.

The court proceedings — in Manhattan and Atlanta — could mark a significant development in the timing and composition of the two criminal cases. Both hearings are scheduled to begin at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time. Trump is expected to make an appearance today in Manhattan.

Here’s what we’re watching: 

• New York: State Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan could signal today whether the hush money trial will begin on March 25. If confirmed, next month’s trial would be the first of Trump’s four criminal trials — and the first of a former U.S. president. Merchan could also rule on Trump’s request to dismiss the case. Trump’s lawyers argue that there is “insufficient proof of wrongdoing and that the case is motivated by a misuse of prosecutorial authority,” our colleagues Perry Stein, Amy Gardner and Shayna Jacobs report. 
• Georgia: Following today’s misconduct hearing, Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee will determine whether Willis and Wade should be disqualified from the election interference case. “At the hearing, Willis will probably have her personal life and professional integrity scrutinized and questioned,” Amy writes. “McAfee said the hearing would focus on whether Willis benefited financially from hiring Wade, when their romantic relationship began and whether it continues.”

The campaign

Democrats look to Nebraska to shore up Biden’s blue wall

Our colleague Michael Scherer takes a look at a Midwestern state that could offer Biden the best path to 270 electoral votes and, ultimately, reelection: Nebraska. Here’s an excerpt:

“The Democratic Party’s blue wall around the Great Lakes has sprung a leak since the 2020 Census,” Michael writes. “The trifecta of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania stood for more than a decade as the last Democratic bulwark to Republicans seeking the White House, with enough votes on their own among the core swing states to give Democrats a majority in the electoral college. Cracks in the Democratic hold on those three states in 2016 gave Republican Donald Trump the margin he needed to win.”

“But the math has changed since 2020 because congressional redistricting has reduced the number of electoral votes in some key states, including Michigan and Pennsylvania. That means Democrats must look elsewhere in 2024 for an additional electoral vote to tip the election if they want to win by holding the northern trio.”

• “Enter Omaha. Nebraska’s 2nd District awards a single electoral college vote — enough to push a Democrat across the finish line along with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.”
• “Like Maine, Nebraska divides its electoral votes among statewide and congressional district winners, allowing the congressional swing district in the Omaha metro area a single vote that Democrats have won twice since 1991 — in 2008 by Barack Obama and in 2020 by Joe Biden. The district has higher incomes and education levels than the rest of the red state, making it a surprising bellwether for the country. Biden won Nebraska’s 2nd District by 6.5 percentage points in 2020, a bit more than his national margin of 4.5 points.”
• “Both the Trump and Biden campaigns have drafted multiple paths to 270 electoral votes, the bare majority needed to win. Under a scenario where Biden only wins the three northern swing states and the other uncontested blue states, a loss in Nebraska’s 2nd District could result in a 269-269 tie — kicking the selection of the president to the House, where Republicans currently have an advantage in the number of state delegations they control.”

The Media

Must reads

From The Post: 

• Teachers are limiting lessons on political, social issues, report finds. By Hannah Natanson.
• U.S., Arab nations plan for postwar Gaza, timeline for Palestinian state. By Karen DeYoung, Susannah George and Loveday Morris.
• Trump ramps up calls to Congress to impeach Biden. By Marianne LeVine.
• Officials sound alarm about new Russian ‘space threat.’ By Shane Harris, Ellen Nakashima and John Hudson.

From across the web: 

• White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre turned down chance to run EMILY’s List. By NBC News’s Jonathan Allen.
• Clyburn leaving Democratic leadership but will seek reelection to House. By Roll Call’s Jason Dick.

Coffee Break(s)

For Valentine’s Day, we read 100 Small Acts of Love by the New York Times’s Melonyce McAfee and Catherine Pearson. But now we have a question for our Early Birds™: How do you show your loved ones “day-in and day-out, all year long” that you care about them? 

Thanks for reading. You can also follow us on X: @LACaldwellDC and @theodoricmeyer.