UFC title matchup projections: What does our model say about Volkanovski-Topuria?

What do the analytics say about the championship fights in 2024? ​​Using predictive models agnostic of betting lines, we examined how each champion's matchup appears from a favorability view.

Essentially, is this a good matchup for the champion or the challenger? The inputs consider each fighter's performance metrics inside the Octagon and select factors about the fighter outside the cage. The higher the score, the more favorable the incumbent champ matches.

These scores don't indicate how to bet the fight versus the relative favorability running from the riskiest to the best matchup.

Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker look ahead at five future title fights that are currently scheduled, along with a fight that's likely to get booked. Kuhn provides the model projections for each fight, while Parker details the betting perspective.

Confirmed UFC championship bouts

Men's bantamweight title: Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs. Ilia Topuria, UFC 298 on Feb. 17, 2024

Analysis: +0.21, mildly favorable for the champion.

Kuhn on what the numbers mean: Volkanovski is undoubtedly flirting with GOAT status at featherweight, having proved his striking against elite talent. While Topuria cemented his title shot with a lopsided win, the quality of his opponents is nowhere near what the champ has faced for the past few years. A fresh face in the title picture is welcome, but don't expect Topuria to see nearly the same success he had while earning his title shot.

Parker on where the bettors lean: Volkanovski by decision. Volkanovski is coming off another loss to Islam Makhachev in their rematch. He put on a gritty performance in a fight many thought he won against the lightweight champion in their first bout, but this one wasn't close. Now he moves back to featherweight and a matchup against a rising star. Topuria is a good wrestler with technical boxing and carries a ton of power. In his fight against Josh Emmett, Topuria showed every aspect of his game, and he looked flawless. However, the difference between fighting Emmett and Volkanovski is vast. Look for Volk to win by decision and the fight to go the distance.

Men's featherweight title: Sean O'Malley (c) vs. Marlon Vera, UFC 299 on March 9, 2024

Analysis: -0.1, unfavorable for the champion

Kuhn on what the numbers mean: O'Malley's precision in power striking is off the charts, arguably the best in the UFC right now. And he can lead the action with his range. However, Vera's knockdown rate is much higher, and he has more experience in championship rounds. While O'Malley will be favored, Vera will have a puncher's chance. With 19 knockdowns combined between them, fireworks seem to be in store with this rematch.

Parker on where the bettors lean: O'Malley to win; over 3.5 rounds. Both fighters are slow starters, usually finding their rhythm in the second. Depending on how big of a favorite O'Malley is, I'm leaning in Suga Sean's direction. His range and movement will be the key to victory in this matchup. And if you can get plus odds, I would love to take this fight to go over 3.5 rounds, possibly even over 4.5 rounds.

Strawweight title: Zhang Weili (c) vs. Yan Xiaonan, UFC 300 on April 13, 2024

Analysis: -0.017, slightly unfavorable for Zhang

Kuhn on what the numbers mean: These two mirror each other on the feet. They're the same age and about the same size, and both use a high rate of striking with above-average accuracy. Zhang offers better power, but Yan counters with more evasive defense. The bottom line is that Yan scores better in rounds, outlanding her opponents more than Zhang does.

The ground game will more clearly favor Zhang. She's more eager to get there and has done more once on the mat than Yan. The ground is also one place where Yan has given up a clear loss -- to Carla Esparza -- which could be the blueprint for Zhang to defend her title.

Parker on where the bettors lean: Zhang to win inside the distance. Sitting at a 3-1 favorite, Zhang will be looking to successfully defend her title against Yan. Zhang will face someone just as physically capable as herself in Yan -- but if she can get her opponent on her back, she will have a major advantage. Zhang, at these odds, makes sense to bet as a parlay to win, but a bigger opportunity would likely be to take her to win with a finish.

BMF title: Justin Gaethje (c) vs. Max Holloway, UFC 300 on April 13, 2024

Analysis: +0.193, favorable for Gaethje

Kuhn on what the numbers mean: The analysis is favorable to Holloway -- but that comes with a big caveat to this simulation, as it doesn't account for the change in weight class. The last time we saw Holloway move up to face elite lightweight talent, he took punishment from Dustin Poirier, who clearly put more power behind the same volume of punches. Gaethje also packs more power, but his glaring deficiency is his low output. That contrasts sharply with Holloway's high-pressure striking and unlimited gas tank.

While I do think Holloway will be leading the dance and scoring more often, I still worry about him absorbing arguably the hardest punches he's ever eaten. Evasion isn't really Holloway's style, so he will get hit. Historically, he's shown a record-breaking chin but that's been primarily at featherweight. That record for absorbed strikes is destined to be broken eventually.

Parker on where the bettors lean: Lean on the over. The last time Holloway jumped up to lightweight was when he took on Dustin Poirier for the interim title, in which he got picked apart over five full rounds in a loss. However, these two are completely different fighters, and I believe Holloway matches up better with Gaethje. Currently, Gaethje is a 2-1 favorite and rightfully so. He is coming off a knockout win over Poirier and will be the bigger fighter in the cage. Holloway will have to endure and evade Gaethje's power. Countering with his volume and precision striking, he is a live underdog. Also, both men are extremely durable, so keep an eye on the over once the odds come out.