Presidents’ Day weekend is approaching and, historically, the period around the holiday has been prime time for D.C. snowstorms, with multiple events having produced double-digit accumulations. A blockbuster storm isn’t likely this time around, but we do have the chance for a few inches of snow Friday evening into early Saturday morning.
There are a few ingredients in place that would favor some accumulating snow, including the currently anticipated storm track and overnight timing. But there are also a couple of reasons for caution still a couple of days out, including if temperatures will be cold enough to maximize an already somewhat limited accumulation potential.
Here’s how we see it for now …
Accumulation potential
Anywhere from just a coating to as much as 3 or 4 inches seems possible across the region.
It’s too early to draw an accumulation map or pinpoint what part of the region might see a coating to 2 inches vs. 1 to 3 inches or maybe even 2 to 4 inches, but it’s the type of storm where colder areas north and west of D.C. typically have a better chance of seeing the most accumulation.
No model currently suggests there is much chance of more than 6 inches.
At the moment, we put odds of at least an inch around 40 percent. But this could go up if forecast simulations don’t shift and our confidence increases.
Storm timing and temperatures
Temperatures should be falling through the mid-30s as the precipitation arrives from west to east Friday evening, currently anticipated sometime between 8 p.m. and midnight.
Any sustained period of moderate snow would be enough to then cool temperatures to 32 degrees or below and support accumulating snow, especially since the air overhead will be well below freezing. But if the snow is too light or intermittent, then temperatures could remain a degree or two warmer and limit accumulation potential, perhaps even causing the snow to mix with rain, especially from D.C. to the south and east.
Precipitation should exit from west to east early Saturday morning around 5 to 8 a.m. the way it looks now.
Storm track and strength
Most models currently show the storm’s low-pressure center passing to the south across southern Virginia or northern North Carolina, which tends to be a colder, snowier track for the D.C. area.
A shift to the north would bring slightly warmer air into the region, keeping accumulations on the lower side and perhaps causing the snow to mix with rain, especially from D.C. to the south and east. A shift to the south could take the steadier, heavier snow too far to our south, again resulting in accumulations on the lower side.
There’s also some chance the storm’s energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere will be lacking, resulting in lighter precipitation and less accumulation.
Expert analysis
“This does look like a light to moderate event. One of the big question marks is whether a narrow band of heavier snow will develop as the system crosses the region,” said Wes Junker, Capital Weather Gang’s winter weather expert. “Without such a band of more intense snowfall, temperatures may not fall enough to support accumulations more than a coating to 2 inches. If one develops, it could produce a small area of 2 to 4 inches. Areas north and west of D.C. have the highest probability of receiving accumulating snow.”
When will we know more?
As we saw with Tuesday’s nor’easter, storm tracks can shift significantly even the day before. For example, Boston went from expecting nearly a foot of snow to only receiving less than a half-inch after the storm track shifted substantially to the south.
The type of system expected in our area Friday night, known as a “clipper,” tends to be a bit more predictable than nor’easters, so hopefully we’ll have increasing forecast confidence by sometime Thursday. We’ll keep watching and keep you updated.
