Border bill collapse is last thing Democratic mayors and governors wanted

On the Hill

🚨 Senate passes $95 billion national security package: The Senate passed legislation early Tuesday morning to send military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan and humanitarian aid to Gaza, months after Republican senators refused to do so without including border policy changes. The bipartisan vote was 70-29.

The bill faces an uncertain future in the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) criticized the bill Monday night for failing to include border policy changes. Johnson opposed the version of the bill that included such changes, which he called insufficient.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) praised the bill’s passage. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) had been working toward this for six months, “as he found himself out of step with a conference that continually resisted his efforts to fund Ukraine and constantly shifting the goal posts of what would get them there,” Liz Goodwin wrote with Leigh Ann earlier this week.

At the White House

Border bill collapse prompts headaches for Democratic-led cities

As a trio of senators struggled to strike a border and immigration deal last month, Mike Johnston, Denver’s Democratic mayor, warned that failing to pass a bill would trigger “a massive fiscal crisis” for his city.

That’s because the bipartisan compromise was expected to including funding for cities such as Denver that have been inundated with migrants, straining their resources.

Now the bill is dead and the crisis is here to stay.

Johnston blames Republicans for killing the bill to help former president Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. 

• “They knew it would have actually dramatically reduced the crisis in cities around the country,” Johnston told us Monday. “That is heartbreaking for us.”

The deal’s collapse has enraged Democrats, who point out that Republicans demanded changes to border policy only to walk away from an agreement that delivered them. But it has especially vexed Democratic mayors and governors in the states and cities that have struggled to accommodate an influx of migrants and were hoping for relief.

Some of them are seeking aid from the White House now. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is in touch with the administration “about the need for additional financial assistance for New York,” she said in a statement to The Early.

• “But until there is congressional action to secure the border, states like New York will have no choice but to continue footing the bill to manage this humanitarian crisis,” Hochul said. “And that is purely because Republicans in Congress, especially the ten that represent New York, have chosen to do the bidding of Donald Trump instead of serving their constituents.”

Political implications

The collapse of the border deal last week has resounded through the 2024 campaign. President Biden has pledged to make sure voters know Trump killed it, while Republicans have welcomed the chance to run on an issue on which polls show voters trust them more.

But the political reverberations could be especially intense near Denver, Chicago, New York and other Democratic-led cities that have received a disproportionate share of migrants, largely on buses chartered by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to relieve pressure on his state.

Tom Suozzi, the Democratic nominee in today’s special election for a House seat on Long Island, has castigated his Republican rival, Mazi Pilip, for rejecting the Washington deal that would “bring money to the state of New York and city of New York to pay for the migrants that have been sent here.” (Pilip has argued the deal “doesn’t really secure our borders.”)

Republicans, meanwhile, blamed the Biden administration for the crisis. The National Republican Congressional Committee believes the influx of migrants into Denver and Chicago this year will help them flip the swing seats held by Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) in the Denver suburbs and Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.), whose district snakes through the northwestern part of the state.

How Denver is coping

The bipartisan border deal included $1.4 billion for local governments and nonprofits to handle the influx of migrants. It also contained provisions making it easier for some migrants seeking asylum to get work authorization — a priority for mayors and governors because it would allow migrants to provide for themselves rather than relying on public assistance.

Now that it’s dead, Johnston and other mayors and governors are struggling to house migrants without federal aid.  

Johnston expects Denver will now need to cut about 15 percent of its budget and scale back the help it offers the nearly 40,000 migrants who have arrived in the city in recent months. On Friday, he announced that the city would reduce hours at motor vehicle offices and recreation centers, and city officials are scheduled to present options for deeper cuts this week.

Denver had already implemented a hiring freeze and delayed construction of a new building for its human services department, and Johnston said he anticipates burning through the city’s remaining financial reserves this year.

“The state is doing what we can to help local communities and nonprofits who are on the frontline caring for new arrivals,” Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) said in a statement to the Early. “But this is a federal issue and states and local communities can only do so much.” 

New York Mayor Eric Adams (D), who’s been a thorn in Biden’s side on the issue, which he warned would “destroy New York City,” suggested last week that he wasn’t holding out hope for any help from Washington.

Adams devised a plan to close a city budget gap caused in part by the surge of migrants without “relying on federal assistance because, after many trips to Washington, D.C., I realized that the federal cavalry was not coming to the rescue,” he told state lawmakers.

Executive action

The administration is taking some limited steps to help cities and states on its own.

It has sent more than $1 billion in grants to places dealing with the migrant surge and has helped set up clinics in New York, Chicago, Denver and Boston to help migrants eligible for work authorization to apply for it. Those clinics have reached more than 15,000 migrants, according to Angelo Fernandez Hernandez, a White House spokesman.

The White House has also been working with the Education Department to make sure local governments are taking advantage of Title I funding to help cover the cost of educating migrants, according to a senior White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. It’s also exploring whether Housing and Urban Development Department funding can be used to help provide for migrants.

Murad Awawdeh, the executive director of the New York Immigration Coalition, suggested the administration could start by expanding the reach of the clinics, which he said in New York are targeted only at migrants who are living in shelters, not those outside them.

But few migrants arriving in Denver now — many of whom are Venezuelan — are eligible for work authorization, Johnston said.

That’s because Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas granted what’s known as temporary protected status to Venezuelans who arrived before July 31, allowing them to work. But the Venezuelan migrants in Denver’s shelters now have arrived more recently.

Johnston plans to talk to the administration about ways to allow more migrants to work, but he said Denver’s long-term needs are likely to exceed what the Biden administration can cobble together without Congress.

“We’ll take a lot of one-time cuts this year on things like capital construction or pausing of projects or temporary closing of programs,” he said. “But we’re not willing to operate long term with those cuts. So we're going to have to figure out how to make that more manageable.”

What we're watching

On the campaign trail

We’re watching how the weather affects the special election to replace Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), whom the House expelled in December after the House Ethics Committee found that he stole from his campaign, deceived donors and lied about his background.

Long Island is predicted to get between 4 and 8 inches of snow, according to the National Weather Service.

Miserable weather could have an impact on turnout in what’s expected to be a close race between Tom Suozzi, the former Democratic congressman who represented the swing district before Santos, and Republican Mazi Pilip.

Steve Israel, the former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman who represented the district before Suozzi, told us Friday that he believed three factors would decide the race: “turnout, turnout and turnout.”

In the House

House Republicans are set to try again to impeach Mayorkas tonight after failing to do so last week.

Three Republicans — Reps. Ken Buck (Colo.), Tom McClintock (Calif.) and Mike Gallagher (Wis.) — voted against impeaching Mayorkas over his handling of the border, resulting in a 215-215 deadlock. But House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) is expected to be back in the Capitol today after weeks away from Washington while receiving a stem cell transplant as part of his treatment for blood cancer.

But a single unexpected absence could force Republicans to delay the vote — or, if a Democrat is absent, make it easier to pass.

From the courts

We’re watching to see if the Supreme Court takes up Trump’s immunity claim. Trump argues that he can’t be criminally prosecuted for his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election because presidents are protected from prosecution. 

On Monday, Trump’s lawyers asked the court to temporarily pause — pending an appeal to the Supreme Court — a unanimous ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit that rejected the immunity claim.

In the economy

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release fresh new inflation data this morning.

On the Hill

Labor Caucus to Delta: Don’t interfere in union efforts

More than 140 members of Congress are urging Delta Air Lines’ chief executive not to interfere in efforts to organize, according to a letter obtained by the Early. 

In the letter, signed by 144 Democrats and one Republican, lawmakers asked Delta CEO Ed Bastian to adopt a neutrality agreement as Delta flight attendants, fleet services workers and technicians work to organize a union.

Workers have complained of reduced pay and increased hours as well as “a culture of fear” around unionizing, the Guardian recently reported. A renewed effort to unionize began in November of 2022. Nearly 30,000 of Delta’s 42,000 workers are employed in Georgia, a right-to-work state that limits unions’ power. (Delta is the state’s largest employer.)

By agreeing to be neutral as employees organize, executives would not influence or pressure workers efforts to unionize. 

• “These retaliatory actions are hostile to workers’ rights, and we urge you to commit to implementing a neutrality agreement with regard to these union organizing efforts,” the members write in the letter led by the co-chairs of the Congressional Labor Caucus, Reps. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.), Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) and Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.). 

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) is the lone Republican who signed the letter. 

Delta didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

In the agencies

The limits of the Federal Reserve’s power over the economy

Our colleague David J. Lynch takes a look at why the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes over the past two years have been no match for consumer spending. Here’s an excerpt:

“When the Fed fights inflation, it typically raises interest rates to discourage consumers and businesses from borrowing money,” David writes. “Fewer personal and business loans translate into lower demand for all sorts of goods, slowing the economy and taking the pressure off prices.”

“That was the idea when the Fed started raising rates two years ago as U.S. inflation approached levels unseen since the early 1980s. From near zero, the Fed’s benchmark lending rate jumped to its current level above 5 percent in less than 18 months. But the results were unexpected.”

• “Rising interest rates usually lift the value of the dollar, which widens the trade deficit, since foreign products become more affordable while U.S. exports suffer, according to economist Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.”
• “This time, however, many other central banks were raising their interest rates to battle inflation. So the dollar did not have a sustained rise. And the trade deficit grew smaller rather than larger, as consumers stopped buying imports and began spending more on in-person services, such as movies and dining out.”

The Data

NATO countries and their defense spending, visualized: Each country in the 31-member alliance commits to “spending at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense each year, with the goal of ensuring the alliance’s military readiness and deterring any potential attacks,” our colleague Derek Hawkins reports. 

• “The commitment is a guideline, not a requirement, that has been in place for nearly two decades … Most of the countries that spent beyond the 2 percent mark either share a border with Russia or sit near the front lines of the Ukraine war.”

The Media

Must reads

From The Post: 

• Trump suggests daughter-in-law and two others for RNC leadership. By Josh Dawsey.
• Austin undergoes new procedures in third hospitalization. By Missy Ryan and Fenit Nirappil.
• Biden and Jordanian king warn about planned Israeli invasion of Rafah. By Yasmeen Abutaleb and Matt Viser.

From across the web: 

• CIA and Mossad chiefs to hold talks on Hamas hostage deal. By the Financial Times’s Andrew England and Felicia Schwartz.
• ‘Everyone should be scared as hell’: Democrats call for Trump-proofing NATO. By Politico’s Joe Gould, Connor O’Brien and Paul McLeary.

Viral

Too soon

Thanks for reading. You can also follow us on X: @theodoricmeyer and @LACaldwellDC.