With ballots out and campaign season in full swing, many Californians have picked up on a sneaky strategy by Rep. Adam Schiff’s Senate campaign to ease his path to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
In the U.S. Senate race, as a result of California’s blanket primary system, the top two vote-getters on March 5 will advance to the November election to determine the next senator for California.
Schiff is one of three Democratic members of the House with a perceptible shot of making it into the top two, the others being Bay Area Rep. Barbara Lee and Orange County Rep. Katie Porter.
Polling has consistently shown in recent months that Schiff is likely to be the top vote-getter, which makes the race for second place critical.
While there are multiple Republican candidates, former baseball star Steve Garvey has pulled enough support that, according to recent polling, he could plausibly come in second place, advance to November and face off with Schiff then.
Given the political makeup of California, it is a virtual certainty that any Democratic candidate for Senate would beat Garvey or any other Republican for Senate. There are twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans and even a generous split of independent voters in favor of Republicans will mean a majority vote for the Democratic candidates. That’s just a political reality.
It is in the interests of Schiff, then, for Garvey to crack the top-two.
That would make election to the Senate in November a lock and make campaign season that much easier.
By contrast, if Rep. Katie Porter or Rep. Barbara Lee made the top-two, not only would that make for a competitive Senate race but it would also be a very expensive one. No doubt, such a scenario would also have the impact of sucking up money that could otherwise help down-ticket Democrats in closely contested races.
And so, the Schiff campaign is working hard to see to it that Steve Garvey makes the top-two.
“Could Republican Steve Garvey really win?” one mailer paid for by the Schiff campaign asks alongside headlines (“Steve Garvey climbing the polls in California’s U.S. Senate race” reads one) giving readers the impression that, yes, maybe Garvey could win.
“Steve Garvey. Too conservative for California,” the mailer warns in a way meant both to energize Democratic voters to vote blue but also to energize Republicans to rally behind “too conservative” Steve Garvey.
A pro-Schiff Super PAC is pouring money into Fox News ads similarly attacking Garvey for being too conservative.
As this editorial board and many others have pointed out, Garvey has tried to run as a moderate Republican, presumably under the impression that independent and Democratic-leaning Californians would give such a candidate a chance. (Hint: They won’t.)
This has encouraged some minor Republican candidates for Senate to attack Garvey from the right as insufficiently MAGA. If no-hoper perennial candidates like Eric Early and James Bradley can pull enough votes from Garvey, that opens a path to the top-two for Porter or Lee.
Hence, the ongoing efforts by Schiff and his backers to amplify the candidacy of Garvey. You can thank the top-two blanket primary for these kinds of games.