000 AXNT20 KNHC 120511 TWDAT   Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Feb 12 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  0455 UTC.  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...  Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure system near 27N61W and lower pressures in NW  South America are resulting in strong to gale-force NE-E winds  and rough to very rough seas from 11N to 14N and between 73W and  78W, offshore Colombia. Seas are peaking around 12 ft through early Mon morning. These conditions will be gradually diminishing Mon  through Tue as the high pressure center drifts eastward and the  pressure gradient weakens.   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from SW Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico and will be moving across the  Gulf basin through Tue morning. Behind the front, NW winds will  briefly increase to near gale-force with frequent gusts to gale-  force offshore of Mexico tonight between Brownsville and Cabo  Rojo, Mexico, and then to gale-force Mon morning off the coast of  Veracruz, Mexico south of 21N and west of 95W. Peak seas are  expected to build to 12 ft with and behind the gale-force winds on Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the  Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico on Mon morning, and move to  the southeast of the Gulf waters late Tue. High pressure will  build across the basin behind the front with quickly improving  marine conditions.  Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National  Hurricane Center at website  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...  The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of  Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N16W.  The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to 03N33W and to 02N50W. A few showers are observed near the ITCZ between 16W and 23W.  GULF OF MEXICO...  Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning issued for the western Gulf of Mexico.  A cold front extends from SW Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico. Widely isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident  ahead of the cold front, extending to the NE Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly winds are found behind the front, along with seas of  4-7 ft. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned between the Leeward Islands and Bermuda. Fresh  to locally strong southerly winds are prevalent east of 90W. Seas  in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds  and slight to moderate seas prevail.  For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from  southeast Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by Mon morning, and  exit the basin by Tue morning. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough  seas will follow the front. Gale force winds are forecast off  Veracruz on Mon morning in the wake of the front. Marine  conditions will improve Wed and Thu as a ridge builds across the  Gulf waters.  CARIBBEAN SEA...  Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in effect for Colombian coastal waters.   A 1024 mb high pressure system is centered near 27N61W and extends southward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between  the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics  result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds prevailing over  much of the basin, pulsing to gale-force off Colombia as discussed in the Special Features section. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to near gale-force winds in the Gulf of  Honduras. Outside of the gale-force winds, moderate to locally  rough seas prevail in the Caribbean. No deep convection is noted  on satellite imagery across the basin.  For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas into Tue across the south-central  Caribbean. Large northerly swell will continue to move into the  northeast Caribbean via Atlantic passages into Mon night. The high pressure will shift east through mid week ahead of a cold front  moving into the Yucatan Channel by late today. The front will  stall and start dissipating from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of  Honduras by mid week. Looking ahead, high pressure building in the wake of the front will support a new round of fresh to strong  trade winds across mainly the central Caribbean by mid week,  possibly reaching gale force off Colombia by late Thu.  ATLANTIC OCEAN...  Please read the Special Features section above for details on ongoing significant swell in the north-central tropical Atlantic.  A weak stationary cold front extends from 31N29W and continues southwestward to 20N41W. A few showers are noted near the frontal boundary. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned between Bermuda and the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are found north of 28N and west of 40W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are present south of 23N and west of 40W. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.  For the forecast, a ridge axis extends east to west along roughly 27N anchored by 1024 mb high pressure near 27N61W. This system  will move eastward across the central Atlantic through mid- week,  ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida  coast late Mon night into early Tue morning. Strong to near- gale  force S to SW winds will develop off NE Florida on Mon and Mon  night ahead of the this cold front, reaching minimal gale-force  Mon night. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba  by late Tue, from 31N50W to eastern Cuba by late Wed, before  starting to stall and dissipate from 24N55W to the Mona Passage by late Thu.   $$ Delgado