Imran Khan-backed independents come first in Pakistan. What happens next?

Five days after Pakistan went to polls, the political uncertainty continues. No party emerged with a majority in parliament with both former prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan declaring victory.

But who will form the government? The speculation continues as a team of independents backed by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) securing the most seats. Yet, they might be excluded from power. We explain why.

Who has won the Pakistan elections?

The results in Pakistan threw a big surprise. The polls seemed in favour of Nawaz Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), which has the backing of the country’s influential military. But after the final tally was released amid allegations of rigging, independent candidates secured the most number of seats.

The independents won 101 seats of which 93 candidates were backed by PTI. The latter are those who were barred from contesting elections under the party’s symbol by the election commission. The PML-N won 75 seats and the Pakistan People’s Party Party (PPP) led by Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari came third with 54 seats.

One result has been withheld and another postponed because of a candidate’s death, according to The Associated Press (AP).

What do the numbers indicate?

No political party has won a majority to form a government in Pakistan. The high number of independent winners has led to an unprecedented situation.

A prime ministerial candidate has to show a simple majority of 169 seats in the National Assembly when the house is called in the coming days, reports Reuters.

Pakistan National Assembly consists of 336 seats of which 266 are decided through direct voting on polling day. There are also 70 reserved seats, 60 for women and 10 for non-Muslims, allotted according to the strength of each party in the house to determine the final position of parties in the Assembly.

But with the highest number of winners being independents, it only complicates the situation. Under Rule 92(6) of Pakistan’s election regulations, once a win is declared, independent candidates have three days to join a political party. Alternately, they can also come together under one name.

Also read: Pakistan elections 2024: The country’s turbulent history of ‘rigged’ elections

Who is likely to form the government?

There is a possibility that the independents backed by PTI might be excluded from the government. Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N and Bhutto’s PPP have said that they are planning to work together to bring political stability to the country. The move is reportedly backed by the Pakistani military. However, the two sides have not reached an agreement yet.

Even if the two join hands now, they will not reach the halfway mark and will need more support.
The Karachi-based Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) has made a surprising comeback in the polls, winning 17 seats. The party could play a role in any coalition, reports the BBC.

If PML-N and PPP form a coalition government with other smaller parties, Nawaz Sharif could return as prime minister. The other important positions could be given to other parties.

The PML-N cannot form a government without the PPP. There is a possibility that the PPP could strike a deal to make Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari the prime minister. Before the polls, the 35-year-old promoted the idea of leading the country, saying he would bring a fresh approach to pull Pakistan out of multiple crises which other aged leaders have been unable to do.

The two parties had formed an alliance to oust Khan from power in 2022 and ruled until last August. Nawaz Sharif’s brother Shehbaz was the prime minister and Bilawal was the foreign minister.

What about the PTI-backed independents?

It's harder to see a scenario where Khan-backed independents form a government given the military’s opposition to it, analysts were quoted as saying by Bloomberg.

While a PML-N and PPP coalition is likely to anger Khan’s followers, a lot depends on how his supporters will push back. The PTI along with several other parties has called for protests against the results, alleging they have been rigged. On Sunday, the protesters clashed with the police. The streets near the electoral commission building in Rawalpindi were blocked with barbed wire and large trucks, preventing any protesters from accessing it. Police used teargas to disperse the crowds, who left the area.

The Pakistan army cracked down on PTI in May last year when its supporters attacked government and military buildings after Khan was detained. Bloomberg quoted some observers as saying they are unlikely to have an appetite for another confrontation.

On paper, Khan’s independent candidates, who won 93 seats, can join a small party to form a single bloc to fulfil a requirement for them to be allocated reserved seats. That would push them closer to a majority and allow them to put up a candidate for prime minister.

The independents can also strike a deal with other parties to support a consensus candidate. If Khan’s supporters are in power, they can push to have their jailed leader released under an agreement, reports Reuters. They will have to work hard for allies to align with Khan’s politics.

Also read: Pakistan election results 2024: What’s next for PML-N, PPP and PTI?

The lack of reserved seats would severely dent their chances of forming a government and hence PTI has decided, in principle, to ally or merge with another political party to claim this benefit. However, PTI leader Barrister Gohar Ali Khan told DawnNews that the party would definitely not be reaching out to either the PML-N or PPP for a possible alliance.

“We don’t feel comfortable with both of them. There will be no talks with anyone to make a government or to make a government together with them. It is better to sit in the opposition than to make a government [with them], but we think we have the majority,” he was quoted as saying by the publication.

What will the army do next?

The results of the Pakistan elections are not what the army wanted. The support for Khan-backed candidates shows that the common man wants true democracy. It is a protest against the military and its role in politics.

However, if no parties reach a consensus, the powerful military could step in to restore order and take power. It has done this thrice in the past. The last time was in 1999 when General Pervez Musharraf overthrew the Sharif government. However, political experts say that the military is unlikely to take this extreme measure and will exert its influence behind the scenes.

With inputs from agencies