Goold: Welcome to ‘Camp Trust.’ These 10 questions face Cardinals in pressurized spring

JUPITER, Fla. — It is common for spring training to develop a theme, sometimes suitable for T-shirts that fade by April and sometimes as simple as the sign ace Chris Carpenter once taped to his locker to answer daily questions about his recovery from injury with a timeless camp mantra: “Progressing nicely.”

And sometimes they’re even shorter. Last year, in those sunny moments before an overcast 91-loss season, officials broadcast the word “opportunity.” Not too long ago the Cardinals said spring training would be defined by “competition.” This year, the description already revealed itself through repetition.

Trust.

“You’re going to hear it a whole lot,” manager Oliver Marmol said.

Calendar pages removed from last year’s failure, the Cardinals begin this year’s spring training Wednesday at the Roger Dean Stadium complex with the first official workout for pitchers and catchers on Valentine’s Day. Full-squad workouts begin Feb. 19. The first exhibition games are Feb. 24. The Cardinals are returning to the field following their first last-place finish in three decades, and they are charged with avoiding their first back-to-back losing seasons with a full schedule in nearly 70 years.

This spring, there’s more than pollen choking the air — there’s pressure.

As Marmol discussed offseason moves the Cardinals made and described spring training plans, he repeatedly used the word “trust.” He said it was important to populate the clubhouse with seasoned players who “trust” each other to pull in the same direction, with experienced players who can “trust” inevitable struggles will end. An expanded staff means players can “trust” they can get more time with coaches if wanted. Left unsaid is how ownership’s commitment to the front office and dugout leaders affirms its “trusts” this is the group to pilot the Cardinals back to their brand. They’re asking fans to trust them, too.

“It’s about getting that amount of buy-in from everybody (in the clubhouse),” Marmol said. “Do you really care about the St. Louis Cardinals and this team, or do you care about yourself? I’ve had plenty of time this offseason revolved around getting guys to buy in to one common vision and one common language and that’s trusting each other.”

The Cardinals expected to report to their complex in Jupiter, Florida, and see buildings leveled and a new, modern player development headquarters rising by 2025. That did not happen. Planned construction has been delayed by at least a year. But, out of sight, some demolition started. The Cardinals’ clubhouse was cleared, multiple officials described. Some walls were knocked down, gear removed, and lockers dismantled, maybe even some frustrations vented on them.

When it became clear the Cardinals would use the same old building this spring and return to that room, the clubhouse had to be rebuilt.

The metaphor writes itself.

The Cardinals renovated their clubhouse with the addition of Sonny Gray to lead the rotation, the returns of champions Lance Lynn and Matt Carpenter to lead the team, and the hiring of special adviser Yadier Molina to see where that leads. It was vital, officials insisted, to invest in leadership as well as pitchers and reconstruct the clubhouse. Pardon the dust. In culture they trust.

They feel they have better answers this year. Gray, Lynn, and Kyle Gibson joining the rotation is a start. Steven Matz, out running sprints at the facility last Friday, is expected to complete the rejuvenated rotation that was the question of the offseason. So, here are 10 other questions, as presented annually by the Post-Dispatch, that face the Cardinals this spring as they stride toward opening day — March 28 at Dodger Stadium against the tycoons of the National League and a gauntlet of contenders to open the season.

1. What tone will be set — and how soon?

While not in the physical place they expected because of construction, the Cardinals open spring in a better place with their roster. More than a dozen members of camp, including leading veterans, won’t be leaving for the World Baseball Classic.

“Quite honestly, it will be nice to just have the entire team there the whole time, right?” Marmol asked. “I look back at our spring training in 2022 and I was very happy with it. Last year, it was difficult to gain any momentum, even when you’re covering fundamentals. Just having everybody together from Day 1 allows for that to take place easier. Our attention to detail is going to be there. Our emphasis on doing small things well is going to be there.”

And the motivation from losing 91 games will be, too.

How that manifests will reveal the leadership the Cardinals sought to rekindle — whether it’s the drive of Willson Contreras or competitiveness of newcomer Gray. It also will flow from the message and priorities coaches and the manager set. Former Cardinals infielder and World Series champion Daniel Descalso joins as bench coach, the camp’s coordinator, and he headlines a larger staff that should be better suited to assist players and better situated to address issues, too. “There wasn’t enough of us to go around,” Marmol said.

2. Will rookie Masyn Winn seize shortstop and steady the defense?

More than just the Cardinals’ plans at shortstop pivot around the readiness of their top prospect and 21-year-old infielder, Winn.

A goal of spring is to eliminate last season’s wobbly, ragged defense and do so through consistent, clear positions. Health will help the Cardinals stop the musical-chairs defense that existed at times last year. Winn taking over at shortstop makes it all possible. A gifted fielder with elite speed, improving instincts, acrobatic aggressiveness, and the best infield arm in the majors, Winn is ready defensively for the demands. He must improve offensively on the job. If so, Winn frees up Tommy Edman to play center field, where the Cardinals believe he can win a Gold Glove and improve the outfield defense as well with Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker in the corners.

The return of Edman (wrist) and Gold Glove utility fielder Brendan Donovan (elbow) from surgeries this spring will also shape the defense. Donovan can share second base with Nolan Gorman, while both appear at DH and Donovan moves around to spell teammates on their DH days. Edman’s rehab delays his camp activities, but he intends to be ready for opening day. Early spring will determine if that’s likely. Winn’s spring will determine if Edman is needed at short.

“If Winn is at short and Tommy is in center,” said John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations, “that is probably the strongest defensive club we could have.”

If not, cue the carousel.

3. Can the MVPs (Most Valuable Pillars) keep their window to win open?

Time may be ticking on Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, the cornerstones of the current Cardinals, and their chance to make their years together about more than individual honors and fond farewells. As spring begins, they are guaranteed one more season as teammates. That means one more year to do what they have not done yet as a duo — win a playoff game.

A year after finishing first and third for the MVP, respectively, Goldschmidt and Arenado each had the most disappointing seasons of their careers. Goldschmidt hit a career-low .447 slugging percentage, his OPS dropped from a league-best .981 to .810, and despite 32 more at-bats in 2023 he had 17.7% fewer total bases. Arenado’s OPS sank from .891 to .774. For the first time in his career, he did not win the Gold Glove at third base.

Both had long stretches searching for their swings this past year, and that drove their offseason prep. Arenado adjusted his workouts to avoid last year’s struggles on defense. Goldschmidt remained among the game’s best in hard-hit rate (93rd percentile) and expected slugging (86th percentile) but never felt consistent with how he readied his hands just before swinging. Spring ignites winter’s work. They both consider themselves leaders by example, by performance. As they go the Cardinals go — and if it all goes well this won’t be their last year together. They may spend many opening days together, in redcoats.

4. How will the presence, influence of Yadier Molina and Chaim Bloom surface?

The Cardinals intend to let the specifics of their roles develop organically. Both will be asked to watch and review elements of the organization and make suggestions. Molina will be the most conspicuous of the two, obviously — in uniform at some point this spring, in the dugout several times during the regular season and undoubtedly a presence for both catchers and pitchers. An aspiring manager, Molina also will spend time with the front office to experience how evaluations and acquisitions are made.

Chaim Bloom, who led baseball operations in Tampa Bay and Boston, will be far less in the public eye in his role as an adviser to Mozeliak. But he’s already had some input and on the very public moves the Cardinals made, specifically with a few relievers.

5. Are young hitters ready to be middlemen and make lineup elite?

Sandwiched between Goldschmidt and Arenado, there is an opening for the left-handed bat that all lineups covet and the game’s best lineups all have.

Few can boast the youth the Cardinals have swinging for that role this spring.

Gorman led the Cardinals with 27 home runs in 2023 despite too few plate appearances to qualify for the batting race. Among hitters 24 years old or younger, his total finished second in the National League to an All-Star no longer in the NL, Juan Soto. Gorman, 23, brings the SLG. Donovan, 27, brings the OBP. And Nootbaar, 26, brings the OPS. All three will have spring to assert their readiness to be a load-bearing member of the lineup.

“That’s what you’re counting on is another year of experience,” Marmol said. “Nootbaar understands himself even more now. Gorman understands himself, and he makes adjustments. You’re going to have a healthy Donovan. You can get excited about it. They were a top-10 offense. They’re going to be a top-five offense.”

Before being dismantled at the deadline and eroded by injuries, the Cardinals’ lineup had the seventh-best slugging percentage (.429) and OPS (.761) in the majors.

The Cardinals opted not to chase free-agent bats this winter because of the youth on the rise, and that goes beyond the left-handed options. Jordan Walker’s climb to prominence in the lineup is just beginning. With Gorman, Walker gave the Cardinals two players 24 or younger who ranked in the top 20 for runs created when compared to all hitters. The Cardinals were the only NL team with two in the top 20, and Gorman and Walker, 18% and 16% better than average, respectively, ranked just ahead of Kansas City’s $288-million man and 23-year-old shortstop, Bobby Witt Jr.

The Cardinals are ready for more than a glance from the left-right combo of their future.

6. Can pitching development lend a hand when needed?

This past month, Baseball America performed a statistical audit to determine “which MLB teams are the best and worst at drafting pitchers.” BA’s metrics revealed the Cardinals, from 2012 to 2023, were the best, by far. Cardinals draft picks threw 6,998 innings in the majors — 1,300 more than any other team, per the magazine’s research — and provided 279 more starts and 94 more wins.

But when the Cardinals needed a hand this past season, the assembly line of pitching contributors that was the once envy of the industry clanked, shuddered, and failed them.

Its reputation was front-loaded; it had fallen behind.

Three of the team’s most-heralded homegrown pitchers — Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, and Dakota Hudson — are gone, two replaced by thirtysomething free agents. In their wake float questions about how the Cardinals recapture and modernize the longtime engine of their contention. The Cardinals upgraded their portable pitching lab and added new toys (like an overhead cam for pitching mechanics studies). They reviewed internally the traits they seek in pitchers.

It’s similar to the overhaul they did with hitting and are benefiting from now. Like Winn, Gorman, and Walker in the past few years, this spring’s non-roster invitees Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, and Michael McGreevy will give glimpses if the pipeline is primed to provide again.

7. Who has the right stuff in a retooled bullpen?

All offseason, the Cardinals prioritized the been-there, done-that experience they brought into the roster (Gibson, Lynn), the clubhouse (Carpenter), and even dugout (Molina, Descalso). Yet, out there, way beyond right field at Busch Stadium, where so many games were misplaced in 2023, they opted not to do the same for the bullpen.

Arguably the Cardinals’ biggest gamble of the offseason — similar to the one they made on the starting rotation a year ago — is that from quantity substantive quality will emerge and volatility will be minimized. In a contrast to moves elsewhere, inexperience abounds, especially in October. A projected eight-man bullpen has one player with enough service time to experience free agency (newcomer Keynan Middleton) and a total of 22⅓ innings in the playoffs. Returning high-leverage relievers Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos pitched 17⅔ of them.

The Cardinals did add horsepower and spin. So much spin.

Andrew Kittredge has a top-rated slider and is allergic to walks. Riley O’Brien unleashes easy-cheese velocity. The Boston imports, Nick Robertson and Ryan Fernandez, sport the classic high-powered fastball and biting slider. They will all delight the metrics and spring will show how that translates to box scores. The Cardinals declined to sign any of the established relievers available, betting instead on their ability to identify, enhance, utilize — or move on.

There isn’t a long-term commitment in the group. There’s a Rule 5 pick, three pending free agents (including Gallegos), youth, and short-term control galore. That subtly hints at what the Cardinals, who know the bullpen that begins the year is not the one that finishes it, wanted to accumulate all along — urgency and flexibility.

8. Can two ex-Cardinals come home again?

At their peaks, Carpenter and Lynn were popular Cardinals, All-Stars, pennant-winners, and potential redcoat-wearers. Only Adam Wainwright has more playoff appearances for the Cardinals than Lynn’s 24. No left-handed batter had more doubles in a single season for the Cardinals than Carpenter’s 55 in 2013, not even Stan Musial.

In the autumn of their careers they’re back after a few years away and neither is coming off a particularly good summer. Lynn’s average fastball dipped to 92.6 mph, its lowest velocity since his last year in St. Louis. Opponents slugged .512 against his fastball and he threw it 43.4% of the time. Carpenter hit .176, slugged .319, and for the first time in his career had more walks (41) than base hits (33). The Cardinals believe spring will showcase a fix for Lynn and an ideal role off the bench for Carpenter. All parties seek a happier ending. The Cardinals want one for Carpenter. They may need one from Lynn.

9. Will anyone spring a surprise?

Where the Cardinals hope to find consistency from their quick-dry roster there is scarce vacancy for a player to go from back fields to opening day. Still, spring impressions can become summer promotions, and notably this year the potential to surprise belongs to more than just prospects:

Dylan Carlson, CF (roster) — Foot surgery addressed pain and limited range that may have compromised him more than he or the team knew. Cast as the fourth outfielder, first-rounder could make noise for a larger role.

Victor Scott II, CF (non-roster) — Fresh off 94 steals and a .369 OBP, Gold Glove-winning and potentially elite center fielder can turn strong spring into head start toward the majors this summer.

Thomas Saggese, INF (non-roster) — Arguably the most advanced hitter in the Cardinals’ system, Texas League MVP will draw comparisons to Donovan but from the right side with more power.

Pedro Pages, C (roster) — Graded out as one of the top receivers and most improved in camp a year ago with a knack for framing, and he’s already a favorite for some established pitchers.

Josh James, RHP (minors) — A lottery ticket signed in January. James had 100 strikeouts in 61⅓ innings back in 2019 for Houston. He will start on back fields, and if he shows he’s healthy could vault into exhibition games.

Wilking Rodriguez, RHP (non-roster) — Limited to 5⅔ innings last season because of persisting arm soreness, Rodriguez and Cardinals performed some roster machinations to keep him in the organization because, even at 33, the reliever’s unmet upside intrigues them.

Adam Kloffenstein, RHP (roster) — A deadline acquisition, 6-foot-5 starter has six pitches, but it’s the snappy sweeper and a heavy sinker that puts him on the radar for relief.

10. Are any additions needed or extensions likely?

One of the leading candidates for an extension, Edman agreed to a two-year, $16.5-million deal in January. Goldschmidt and the Cardinals discussed waiting to see how this pivotal season begins before engaging in expected talks. Still, all it took was a conversation over coffee in the spring clubhouse to spur agreement on his current contract. So it’s possible the Cardinals could still brew up their annual extension presser. The team could decide it’s time to see how appealing a few years of security is for closer Helsley.

Injuries and hiccups can always spur interest in remaining free agents — and so can changes in price. Lefty Jordan Montgomery, a Cardinal a year ago and a champion with Texas a few months ago, remains available. While the Cardinals have not spent much time since November looking at free-agent starters, if that view shifts, if a need materializes, he already has one of the traits the Cardinals clearly valued all winter and intend to stoke this spring.

They can trust him.

“If you are in that clubhouse and you have a group that loves the grind — together — (and) they truly trust each other, they’re in it for one reason, and it has nothing to do with what’s on their back,” Marmol said. “They truly trust coming together as a club, grinding through it. They are grinding in one direction. When you can do that, good things happen. You have a sustainable culture for a very long time.

“That’s the aim.”

That’s the assignment.