All eyes are on Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl 58. The two-time Super Bowl MVP, now in his seventh season in the league, is gunning for his third Super Bowl victory in five seasons.
Here are the top five Patrick Mahomes props for Super Bowl 58:
- Higher completion percentage than Brock Purdy (-120)
- Throw a first quarter touchdown (+230)
- Throw an interception (-105)
- Under 26.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Under 262.5 passing yards (-110)
2024 Super Bowl player props: Patrick Mahomes props for Feb. 11 Chiefs vs. 49ers
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl props: Have a higher completion percentage than Brock Purdy (-120 or better)
There are a number of head-to-head quarterback prop bets available for the Super Bowl, and this is one of our favorites.
Brock Purdy put together a great regular season and spread the ball around just as well as any quarterback in the NFL, but in the postseason, his completion percentage dropped. Purdy completed 59% of his throws against Green Bay and 64.5% against Detroit.
Meanwhile, Mahomes’ completion percentage is up slightly from his regular season numbers – especially in his last two games. Against Buffalo, he completed 73.9% of his throws. That number jumped to 76.9% against Baltimore the next week. We think his postseason completion success continues in the Super Bowl.
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Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl player props: Passing TD in 1st Quarter (+210 or better)
During the regular season, first quarter touchdown passes were far from a sure thing for Mahomes. In the 16 games he played, he threw a first quarter touchdown in just five of those games.
That’s a big reason why the odds are +210 or better. But don’t discount his postseason success. In two of the Chiefs’ three playoff games, Mahomes has thrown a scoring pass in the first quarter. Mahomes has thrown a first quarter touchdown pass in just one of his three previous Super Bowls, but it happened to be last year.
Patrick Mahomes props for Super Bowl 58: Over 0.5 interceptions (-105 or better)
You’ll have to pay a small amount of juice if you think Mahomes will throw a pick in the Super Bowl, but we think there’s some value here based on just how good the San Francisco defense has been in forcing turnovers. During the regular season, the 49ers recorded at least one interception in 13 or their 17 games.
Mahomes threw a career-high 14 picks during the regular season this year. He hasn’t thrown an interception this postseason, but he ended the regular season by throwing a pick in four of his final five games. This current four-game streak without an interception is his longest of the season.
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl props: Under 26.5 rushing yards (-110 or better)
Mahomes finished with a career-best 389 rushing yards this season. But it’s what he’s done as of late that leads us to believe the under is a smart bet. Counting Kansas City’s three playoff contests, Mahomes failed to run for at least 27 yards in seven of his last nine games.
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl props: Under 262.5 passing yards (-110 or better)
Taking the under here, not because of any shortcomings of Mahomes, but the balance of this Kansas City offense. San Francisco is capable of being run on; Detroit and Green Bay ran for 182 and 136 yards, respectively, against the 49ers in the playoffs.
Mahomes threw for 262 yards or fewer in five straight games. In the 16 games he played in during the regular season, he failed to surpass 262 yards eight times. San Francisco allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 262 yards just once in its last six games.
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