804  AXNT20 KNHC 100950 TWDAT  Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Feb 10 2024  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  0930 UTC.  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...  Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas generated by a strong  extratropical cyclone, with hurricane force winds, located over  the central Atlantic well N of the forecast area, continue to  propagate across the forecast waters mainly N of 26N between 40W  and 65W. Seas of 12 ft or greater are noted in this area, peaking  to around 16 ft. The area of 8 ft seas or greater are N of the  Greater Antilles, E of 73W, and then NW of a line from 31N34W to  18N61W. This swell will gradually shift eastward during the  weekend, with seas forecast to subside below 12 ft across the  waters W of 35W on Sun night. However, rough seas in the 8 to 11  ft range, will continue to affecting most of the waters N of 15N  and E of 60W through Mon. Mariners are urged exercise caution over the next few days across the central atlantic, as this swell  event will maintain hazardous marine conditions.   Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the  Colombian low and high pressure building over the western  Atlantic will support pulsing gale force winds and rough seas  off Colombia tonight. Conditions will begin to improve by Sun  morning.   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National  Hurricane Center at website  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...  The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 07N11W then continues westward to near 06N18W.  The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 04N45W. Scattered moderate  convection are noted along the ITCZ between 20W and 31W.   GULF OF MEXICO...  A ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida into  the Gulf of Mexico. Under the influence of the ridge, moderate  to fresh southerly return flow prevails over most of the Gulf  waters. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft.  For the forecast, moderate to fresh return flow is expected across  the Gulf basin through early Sun as high pressure along the  eastern seaboard shifts E into the Atlc. Patchy fog is possible  over the far northwest and west-central Gulf by tonight, ahead of  a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sun. Behind the front, NW winds will briefly increase to gale-force W of 95W  on Mon. The front is expected to reach from the mouth of the  Mississippi River to Veracruz on Mon morning and move SE of the  Gulf basin late Tue. High pressure will build across the basin  behind the front with quickly improving marine conditions.  CARIBBEAN SEA...  A Gale Warning in effect for the SW Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details.   Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong E winds prevail across  the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh E winds are noted elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail across the basin, except for  rough seas over the central portion. An area of strong NE winds  is noted in the lee of Cuba, between eastern Cuba and Jamaica.  For the forecast, large N swell will continue to impact the  regional Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages today then  gradually become NE over the weekend before subsiding on Mon. High pressure will prevail across the western Atlantic and move slowly E-SE through Mon. Gale force winds over the waters N of Colombia  will weaken this morning, then pulse again tonight. Fresh to  strong trade winds and building seas will prevail over the central Caribbean through early next week, while gentle to moderate E  winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Fresh to strong SE  winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and  gradually spread through the Yucatan Channel Sun and Mon as the  Atlantic high shifts SE into the central Atlantic, and a cold  front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. The front will  enter the NW Caribbean Tue night then stall from central Cuba to  the Yucatan Peninsula on Wed and dissipate.   ATLANTIC OCEAN...  Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about  the ongoing Significant Swell in the Atlantic Ocean.  A 1023 mb high is analyzed across the western Atlantic near 29N74W. To the east, a cold front enters the forecast region near 31N40W to 20N51W. Fresh to strong winds follow the front,  particularly N of 27N and E of 58W. Rough to very rough seas in  excess of 12 ft are behind the front. A pre-frontal trough  extends from 19N49W to 13N56W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a  1020 mb high pressure is centered near 25N29W and dominates the  remainder of the forecast area. Moderate trade winds and seas of  4 to 6 ft prevail across the tropical Atlantic. Seas increase to  6 to 8 ft NE of the Leeward Islands due to the swell mentioned  above.  For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NW winds will prevail  today across the west Atlantic N of 27N and E of 58W behind the   frontal boundary. Rough to very rough seas in excess of 12 ft  will continue N of 26N and E of 65W through today before gradually subsiding on Mon. Winds will diminish from west to east through  Sun as the front moves SE and weakens, and high pressure currently near 30N74W slides E-SE across the area waters. Strong S to SW  winds will develop across offshore the N Florida waters ahead of  the next cold front on Mon. The front is expected to exit the SE  U.S. and N Florida Tue morning, reach from near Bermuda to the NW  Bahamas by Tue evening, then drift SE and weaken quickly Wed.  $$ ERA