The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are both one win away from being declared world champions — both will have the opportunity to seize that title when they meet in Super Bowl 58 on Sunday, Feb. 11.
These teams already squared off in Super Bowl 54 four years ago will be as motivated as ever in an old-fashioned grudge match.
Super Bowl 58 player props: 49ers vs. Chiefs bets and picks for NFL Sunday
As both the Niners and Chiefs get ready for kickoff, we’ve picked out the best player props from stars we believe will dominate the postgame headlines.
Super Bowl 58 props: Patrick Mahomes not to throw an interception (-105 or better)
Mahomes is on pace the become the best NFL player of all time and has been at his best in this postseason. Although his counting numbers are down, he has an average QBR of 90.2, the best of his playoff career.
Part of Mahomes’ brilliance during his team’s run this year is his care with the ball. Supported by the emergence of Isiah Pacheco, Mahomes has not needed to put on his Superman cape and make risky throws, allowing him to go six straight playoff games without an interception. The 49ers have the second-highest opponent interception percentage, but there’s nobody out there like Mahomes.
Super Bowl 58 prop picks: Brock Purdy Over 11.5 rushing yards (-110 or better)
Purdy flashed his subtle athleticism and speed in the open field in the NFC Championship Game by scrambling for a few back-breaking first-downs against the Detroit Lions. He went over this line in both playoff games this season and one of two last year (excluding the NFC Championship Game when he left injured in the first quarter).
The Chiefs forced the second-most sacks per game — pressure and a collapsing pocket force opposing QBs to scramble, which is part of why KC allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs during the regular season. Bet on Purdy to clear his line because of that.
49ers vs. Chiefs bets: Christian McCaffrey Over 34.5 receiving yards (-110 or better)
McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards but is also a tremendous threat in the passing game. He caught four passes for 42 yards against the Lions and, although he only finished with 30 yards, managed seven receptions against the Green Bay Packers.
The Chiefs successfully forced their three playoff opponents to play games they didn’t want to. If they can do that again and stifle the Niners run game, McCaffrey will likely get lots of looks in screens, check-downs and dump-offs to keep him involved.
Super Bowl 58 player props: Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (+105 or better)
Kelce scored 18 TDs in 17 postseason games with Mahomes, including three in the last two weeks. He’s fresh off one of his best performances of the season (11 catches for 116 yards and a TD) and is facing a 49ers defense that just let Sam LaPorta catch nine balls for 97 yards.
Kelce was not targeted as heavily as in years past during the regular season, but Mahomes has looked his way frequently during the playoff run. It would surprise absolutely nobody to see him funnel the offense to his favorite and most trusted target in the biggest game of the year, especially since he scored in two of three Super Bowls he appeared in (including Super Bowl 54).
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Super Bowl 58 best bets: Isaiah Pacheco Over 16.5 rushing attempts (-120 or better)
The Chiefs are no longer an air-raid offense that depends on the deep ball — instead, they’re more than content running the ball, holding opponents on the sideline, and counting on Mahomes to make plays in key moments.
Pacheco scored in seven straight games and should be a huge part of the game plan. He beat this line in two of three playoff games and five of his last eight games total, and the Niners just let the Lions run for 29 times for 182 yards and three TDs.
Best Super Bowl 58 bets: George Karlaftis to record the most sacks (+650 or better)
Karlaftis, Nick Bosa and Chris Jones all tied with 10.5 regular-season sacks. However, Karlaftis leads them with 2.5 postseason sacks, while Bosa has two in one less game and Jones has 0.5.
The Niners’ offensive line was graded by Pro Football Focus as the 21st-best, while the Chiefs’ was third. Mahomes was also sacked just twice in three playoff games, while Purdy was sacked three times in two playoff games, which gives Karlaftis real value for these odds.
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