PayPal Shares Drops After Forecasts of Profit Growth in 2024

PayPal lost close to 9% of its share value on February 8. The company presented its forecast for the year, which was lower than investors had expected. As such, its shares plummeted in premarket trading as disappointed investors who expected better results under the new CEO may have sold off their shares. 

While responding to a post-earnings call, the recently appointed CEO, Alex Chriss, outlined a strategic plan to change things. 

According to his idea, PayPal will focus on pursuing profitable growth and ease pressure on its shares that performed poorly on the Nasdaq 100 Index in 2023.

PayPal Presents Disappointing Predictions

According to a Reuters report today, Wall Street analysts opined that the forecast will be detrimental to Paypal’s share in the short term. However, they acknowledged that the company’s new initiatives would yield positive results.

Apart from Wall Street, J.P. Morgan also wrote in a note:

It’s clear that 2024 will be more of a transition year than we were expecting, with previously targeted operating leverage coming after 2024. We expect pressure on the stock as estimates come down,

Regarding valuation, PayPal trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.64, while its rival Block stands at 21.08. The report also revealed that CEO Alex Chriss emphasized ongoing efforts to drive internal and external changes, cautioning that the impact of these initiatives would take time to scale and make a significant impact.

Also, analysts at Morningstar interpreted the management’s outlook as indicative of a longer-than-expected journey toward improving growth and profitability. They highlighted Chriss’s comments, suggesting that meaningful improvements in growth or margins might not materialize in the current year.

Additionally, PayPal announced it will discontinue sharing an annual revenue forecast, opting for a quarter-ahead guidance approach. This reflects ongoing significant changes within the company that could address pressing issues.

Chief Financial Officer Jamie Miller explained this shift as a critical response to guide revenue in alignment with the developing landscape.

PayPal Anticipates Stronger Economy in 2024

During the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, PayPal experienced significant growth, mirroring the trend seen across various online businesses. 

The period spanning 2020 and 2021 witnessed a surge in total payment volume (TPV), revenue, and active accounts, contributing to a notable increase in the company’s stock price.

However, economic challenges, including inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, hindered continued expansion in 2022 and 2023. 

In the third quarter of 2023 (concluding on September 30), PayPal saw an 8.4% year-over-year revenue gain, even though it fell short of the robust 20%-plus growth observed in 2020.

The impact of softer macroeconomic conditions was evident, particularly in consumer discretionary spending, a focal point for PayPal. Despite this, shareholders view the potential for a more robust economic environment in 2024 optimistically.

If the Federal Reserve implements multiple rate cuts throughout the year, there’s a potential for improved consumer confidence and spending. This, in turn, could propel PayPal’s growth metrics, positively influencing the company’s stock price.