Why Saving George Santos Could Be Blessing in Disguise for Democrats

Democrats voting to save Representative George Santos from expulsion could be a blessing in disguise for their chances of winning back his seat next year, experts told Newsweek, while another said it could also backfire.

Santos survived an expulsion resolution on Wednesday introduced by Representative Anthony D'Esposito, a New York Republican who represents a neighboring Long Island Congressional district, Wednesday evening. Santos faced allegations of lying about large swaths of his biography and professional experience during his campaign and is under federal indictment for alleged fraud charges. Santos maintains his innocence and has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

Thirty-one Democrats joined 182 Republicans in voting against expelling Santos, while 24 Republicans joined 155 Democrats to support expulsion. Another 19 members of Congress voted "present," meaning he easily survived the vote, as Congressional rules dictate that two-thirds of all members of Congress were needed to successfully expel him.

Democrats opposing expulsion defended their votes by arguing Santos should not be expelled unless he were to be convicted, not just accused, of a crime. Representative Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat, warned doing so would set a "terrible precedent."

"If and when Santos is convicted of these serious criminal offenses or ethics charges, I will certainly vote to expel. Until then, it's a very risky road to go down and we have to stick by due process and the rule of law, as obvious as the eventual result may seem," he wrote in a statement.

However, keeping Santos around may have political benefits for Democrats, as well, experts told Newsweek.

Even before his scandals, Santos was set to be a top target for Democrats in the 2024 election. He represents New York's Third Congressional district, viewed as having a slight Democratic lean, that voted for President Joe Biden by 8 percentage points in 2020.

Coupled with Santos' legal issues, the seat is viewed as the Democrats' strongest opportunity to flip a seat in November 2024, with the Cook Political Report rating it as "leans Democrat."

Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweek that Santos is a "lightning rod for criticism," and that Republicans not voting in support of expulsion will "look bad" heading into 2024.

This may help Democrats flip the seat, regardless of whether Santos wins renomination, as his scandals may "rub off negatively" on any Republican nominee, Shapiro said. He noted that Democrats may win a special election to replace him if he were to be removed, which would also set them up for success in next year's elections.

"The Democrats would prefer to have someone running against this weakened Santos than against a stronger Republican. But if they can replace him earlier with a strong Democrat who could then win the general election, that is a plus as well," he said.

He added that Santos is "tarnishing the Republican label" in New York and may bring down other Republicans defending competitive seats in the region. Many of these Republicans led efforts to remove him from Congress but will still face reelection in districts likely to back Biden on the presidential level, meaning they will need strong crossover support.

David Barker, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University, told Newsweek their support for the resolution neutralizes Santos' threat to their reelection "to some degree," but they still may feel a chilling effect due to his scandals.

"Many of them are on record as having defended him previously, and over the next year there may be other moments when they are put in a similarly awkward position," he said.

He added that Santos is likely to lose a GOP primary, but that Democrats would still benefit by going up against a Republican who does not have the incumbency advantage in the district.

Santos' Ouster Could Have Backfired on Democrats, Expert Says

Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, told Newsweek Santos staying in office will broadly benefit Democrats by giving them another talking point to use against Republicans—and would give the Democratic nominee in that district content for attack ads. But other political noise would "drown out" any significant impacts outside of Santos' district, he said.

Still, Santos' removal from office could have backfired on Democrats, he said. Republicans would likely have used his ouster for their attacks against New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez, who is up for reelection next year, but facing difficult odds in his primary after being indicted for allegedly accepting bribes.

"If Santos goes, but Senator Menendez stays, it does not help the Democrats. Republicans can point to Menendez for a 'you too' kind of response," he said.

Newsweek reached out to Santos' office for comment via email.