Kari Lake's Chances of Winning Arizona Senate Seat

Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake was handed both good and bad news before her anticipated U.S. Senate launch as one early poll shows she is behind in voter support while another shows her in the lead.

Lake, a former television news anchor, gained national attention as one of former President Donald Trump's loyal supporters and as an election denier. She gained Trump's endorsement in Arizona's 2022 gubernatorial election but lost to Democrat Katie Hobbs.

Lake is vying for the Senate seat held by Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat who left her party last year and is now registered as an independent. Lake filed the papers to run for the Senate on October 2 while more recently teasing the decision on X, formerly Twitter. She is expected to formally announce her campaign on Tuesday.

A new poll from Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling commissioned by her rival, Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego's campaign, showed Gallego leading the hypothetical three-way race receiving 41 percent support, while Lake received 36 percent and Sinema received 15 percent support.

Kari Lake
Kari Lake photographed at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, on September 27, 2023. Ahead of Lake's Senate bid, early voting polls show varied support for her candidacy. Mario Tama/Getty Images

The survey of 522 Arizona voters, provided to Newsweek by the Gallego campaign, was conducted from October 6-7, with a margin of error of 4.3 percent. It showed Gallego leading the hypothetical three-way race receiving 41 percent support, while Lake received 36 percent and incumbent Sinema received 15 percent support.

The poll also found that a match-up between only Gallego and Lake as candidates would be a much tighter race as 48 percent said they would vote for Gallego while Lake only had 43 percent of voters. Nine percent said they were undecided.

In terms of favorability, only 33 percent of Arizona voters surveyed had a favorable opinion of Lake while 56 percent were found to have an unfavorable opinion of her.

Newsweek reached out to Kari Lake via email for comment.

According to another poll, in a race that includes all three candidates, Lake leads with 37 percent of support. The independent poll, conducted by National Research Inc. surveyed 400 likely voters in Arizona between Oct. 7-9 with a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.

It found that Lake leads in the race compared to the 33 percent who said they would support Gallego, while another 19 percent said they'd reelect Sinema. Another 10 percent of voters remain undecided.

A two-way race between Lake and Gallego shows both candidates tied with voter support at 44 percent with 12 percent of voters still undecided. The poll also found that Lake is more favorable among independents as 43 percent of the voting bloc said they'd prefer her over 39 percent who said the same for Gallego.

The polling comes as Lake prepares to launch her highly anticipated Senate bid. She is expected to make the announcement during a rally on Tuesday evening in Scottsdale, Arizona. The polls signal this to be one of the most competitive races of the 2024 cycle.

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