Desperately Seeking Yield: September 12, 2023

Current yields continue to show signs of peaking, based on a broad review of the major asset classes via a set of proxy ETFs. In each of our periodic updates of yields so far this year, the numbers reflect a decline from the previous review.

Today’s figures extend the trend. The average yield for global risk assets dipped again to 3.67% (as of Sep. 11, 2023) from the previous update’s 3.76% (July 19, 2023). The peak for our irregular updates was 4.50% (Dec. 19, 2022).

While the trailing 12-month yield (according to Morningstar.com) for risk assets has been falling in 2023, US Treasury yields continue to rise. The 10-year Note, for instance, ticked up to 4.29%, well above the portfolio average in the table above.

Cherry-picking markets, however, still reflect unusually high trailing yields. The top payout rate in the table above is still SPDR FTSE Intl Govt Inflation-Protected Bond (WIP), which boasts a trailing 12-month yield of 7.58%, Morningstar reports. Although that’s persistently eased this year, it’s still head and shoulders over the rest of the field. At the opposite extreme: Real estate ex-US (VNQI), which is yielding a thin 0.58%.

Payout rates in financial markets may be sliding, but there’s still opportunity for potentially capturing relatively high yields. But here comes the standard caveat: Trailing payout yields for stocks and other risk assets listed above aren’t guaranteed (in contrast with current yields from government bonds for buy-and-hold investors). Keep in mind, too, the ever-present possibility that whatever you earn in yields via ETFs fund could be wiped out, and more, with lower share prices.

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