But the dry conditions that tend to accompany El Nino mean smooth sailing ahead is unlikely, warned Elyssa Kaur Ludher, from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute's Climate Change in Southeast Asia programme.
"My question is whether they can continue to do this once El Nino comes into force towards the end of this year, when water becomes more scarce," she told AFP.
"I think the end of this year and especially the beginning of next year will be very, very tough," she added.
A naturally occurring weather phenomenon, El Nino typically lasts nine to 12 months and is expected to strengthen late this year.
Even before India's latest restrictions, its effects were boosting rice export prices, according to BMI.
And in Thailand, national rainfall levels are currently 18 per cent lower than expected for the time of year, the Office of National Water Resources said this month.
Late rains could still make up the difference, but the agency said it is "concerned about a drought caused by El Nino".
"NEW NORMAL"
The consequence is one of price rather than supply, said Charles Hart, agricultural commodities analyst at Fitch Solutions.
"This is not a running out of rice moment," he stressed, noting India's restrictions have not been followed by other exporters.
Instead, the situation is likely to force the drawdown of stocks rebuilt after pandemic-era depletions, and prompt importers to seek new deals and impose local limits.
Top importer the Philippines this month signed a deal with Vietnam to help stabilise supply, days after announcing a national price cap.
For some though, unaffordable prices amount to the same as a lack of supply: Less food.
"It's not just a food availability issue, but it's also a social stability issue, it's a political issue," said Ludher.
The current disruptions should be a wake-up call for policy-makers, she added, with more attention needed to the plight of farmers across various sectors.
Climate change can affect productivity, with lower crop yields as temperatures rise, but also increases the likelihood of extreme events like the 2022 Pakistan floods.
"Global grain export markets are relatively concentrated, so that kind of extreme weather risk accumulates in a few markets," Hart added.
In India, policymakers need to develop better early-warning systems and new planting patterns, said Avantika Goswami, a climate change researcher at the Centre for Science and Environment.
"Erratic weather patterns are the new normal," she told AFP.
"Now, it's a case of early adaptation. In the long-term, global emissions have to come down."
