AFC South Storylines in 2023: 1 Key Question for Each Team

It's a quarterback league, the pundits say. Judging by the last few years' draft results, the general managers of the four AFC South squads agree.

The Texans and Colts each selected highly touted signal callers with their 2023 first-round picks, both of whom will start the season as QB1. The Titans waited until the second round and landed a quarterback many projected to go much earlier.

Their inspiration may come in the form of the Jacksonville Jaguars' 2021 selection. After three consecutive losing seasons, the Jaguars took Trevor Lawrence with the number one overall pick.

A normally subpar rookie season was overshadowed by a scandal involving Jags head coach Urban Meyer that led to Meyer's dismissal. But in the 2022 campaign, Lawrence took a step forward, reducing his turnovers and securing the team's first playoff birth since the 2017 season.

Will the rest of the AFC South follow the Jags blueprint? Or will Lawrence keep Jacksonville at the top of the division? One key question for each team could prove pivotal.

Jacksonville: Can Lawrence keep defense off field?

Most rookie quarterbacks struggle with turning the ball over. Even the great Peyton Manning threw a league-leading 28 picks in his first season. Lawrence fit the bill as well, tossing a league-worst 17 picks in 2021.

The 2022 regular season started out on the same note: The Jags went 2-6 to start the season, with Lawrence responsible for 10 turnovers.

The second half of the season struck a different chord. Lawrence committed just two turnovers while leading the Jags to seven wins in their last nine games and securing a playoff spot.

But then came a wild card game that mirrored the team's season.

Their first seven possessions ended in either interceptions or three-and-out punts, keeping the Jags defense on the field for nearly two-thirds of the first half. The Los Angeles Chargers were able to rack up a 27-0 lead with minutes to go before halftime.

Lawrence then proceeded to lead a legendary comeback, shredding the Chargers defense for four touchdowns.

But as important, the Jags defense was able to get a break. The extra rest proved beneficial as Jacksonville held their opponents to just three second-half points in its 31-30 win. The Chargers ran about 30 percent fewer plays and sustained one drive longer than two and a half minutes in that half.

If the Jags are going to succeed as many predict (including DraftKings Sportsbook, which has the Jags at -155 to win the AFC South, the third-best odds of any division winner), Lawrence needs to keep his defense off the field as much as possible.

Tennessee: Is the window still open?

Championship windows come and go. If, and it's a big if, the window is still open in Nashville, it could slam shut following the 2023 campaign.

The Titans depth chart heading into Week 1 has 11 starters whose contracts are set to expire after the season. Among them is Pro Bowl quarterback Ryan Tannehill, 35, who has had moments of brilliant play offset by injury. While Tannehill seems entrenched at the top of the depth chart, two young quarterbacks could step in if the veteran falters. Rookie second-rounder Will Levis starts the season third on the depth chart, while Malik Willis enters his second season as Tannehill's primary backup.

The bigger question is the Pro Bowler lining up behind Tannehill.

While it's en vogue to view backs as disposable, Derrick Henry would be nearly irreplaceable. He's the only back in the last decade to put up a 2,000-yard season on the ground. Over the last four years, Henry has been in the league's top two rushers three times. In 2021, a broken foot kept him out of the final eight regular-season games. He still finished league's ninth-most-productive runner and returned to play in the team's playoff game.

Even the offseason's hottest free agent could be right back on the market if the Titans don't capitalize this season. While DeAndre Hopkins signed a two-year deal in the offseason, there is a team-friendly out after one season. If Hopkins doesn't gel with his new quarterback(s) and show his former All-Pro production from a few years ago, the Titans could decide to move on.

With all of the expiring contracts, Spotrac estimates the Titans cap room in 2024 to be about $77 million. That's plenty of room to extend some of the expiring contracts. It also makes some of the players, especially Henry, possible trade deadline targets for contenders looking to make a Super Bowl push.

DraftKings likes the Titans as the second-place finisher in the division at +350 as of Thursday afternoon. But with a win total middled at 7.5, they'd need to massively overperform to find their way into the playoffs.

Indy: Can Richardson make good on his potential?

First-round quarterbacks face a world of pressure, especially those taken in the top five picks. Take the 2021 draft, for example, where the first three picks assumed starting roles under center in their first season. Lawrence, the first overall pick two years ago, sits on the edge of superstardom. The second pick, the Jets' Zach Wilson, was replaced in the offseason by longtime Packers star Aaron Rodgers. This preseason, number three pick Trey Lance was traded to the Cowboys by the 49ers.

Anthony Richardson, the 2023 fourth overall pick, won't have an easy path as he's paired with rookie head coach Shane Steichen in Indianapolis. With two first overall picks preceding him as the Colts QB1, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, it's inevitable that comparisons will be drawn despite his definitively different style. Both former quarterbacks struggled in their rookie years but went on to have strong performances in subsequent seasons.

Adding to normal rookie woes is another major question mark for the Colts: Will Jonathan Taylor take the field this season? There's no need to rehash the long story of Taylor's fallout with the Colts organization, but safe to say not having him in the backfield will put even more pressure on Richardson. It may also open up the path to Richardson's own success on the ground. He accumulated more than 1,000 yards rushing between his two seasons starting at the University of Florida.

Michael Pittman Jr. anchors a young corps of receivers at Richardson's disposal. At 6-foot-4, 223 pounds, the fourth-year wideout provides a big target. In a contract season, Pittman will be looking to impress the Colts organization, or potential suitors.

All five end-of-season starters on the offensive line return, but that may not be good news. The Colts surrendered the second-most sacks in the league in 2022.

Oddsmakers seem to agree that it's a tough sell to have a rookie quarterback rack up many wins. DraftKings middled the Colts at 6.5 wins and have them at +600 to win the division. If the Colts have a shot at overperforming, it'll be because of Richardson.

Houston: Can Stroud make good on his potential?

Remember that preamble to the Indianapolis Colts section? Go ahead and read back over it, replacing Anthony Richardson with C.J. Stroud and Shane Steichen with DeMeco Ryans. If you see the words Peyton Manning, you've gone too far.

The Texans did Stroud a major favor by shoring up his blindside protection, signing Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to a three-year extension in the offseason. They also brought help to the interior line, signing two-time Super Bowl champion Shaq Mason. Players often talk about the difference in speed between college and the NFL. For a pocket passer like Stroud, those extra tenths of a second can go a long way.

Stroud's backfield may provide some much-needed change of pace. Dameon Pierce compiled more than 900 yards in his rookie season and is joined by former Buffalo Bill Devin Singletary. The combination should help keep defenses guessing and create opportunities for the young quarterback. Veteran wideout Robert Woods will be looking to rebound from a career-low 527 yards receiving with the Titans in 2022.

No one, including sportsbooks, is expecting a playoff run from the Texans this season. They are the longest shot to win the division, (+800) and second-longest to win the Super Bowl (+20000). Sadly for the Texans, a poor performance won't yield better draft position in the spring, as they traded away their pick to the Cardinals. Though they still own the rights to the Browns first-round pick, chances are that they will be picking later than their record will dictate.

The hope for the Texans this season is building for the future. Immediately after selecting Stroud with the number two overall pick, the Texans moved up to take edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., trading away a package of picks to the Arizona Cardinals. If they can create a core of young, dynamic players, the AFC South could be one of the NFL's most competitive divisions in 2024.