Russia's new "reserve army" in Ukraine is "unlikely to be combat effective" due to a "rushed deployment," according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW, a U.S.-based think tank, said in a report published on Friday that trouble could be on the horizon for Russia's newly created and "low quality or understrength" 25th Combined Arms Army (CAA).
According to Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's Military Intelligence Directorate, the unit has been partially deployed five months ahead of schedule to the largely Russian-occupied eastern region of Luhansk.
The reserve troops were reportedly sent to the Luhansk front line to relieve soldiers from the "relatively more effective" 41st CAA, who are are said to be needed to defend against the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine.
ISW suggested that the move could expose a Russian weak spot in Luhansk, as the 25th CAA forces sent there are not yet fully equipped for battle.
"The 25th Combined Arms Army is unlikely to be combat effective at scale given its rushed deployment," ISW's report states. "The formation is likely either severely understaffed and not near the paper strength of two divisions, or is poorly trained much like initial Russian mobilized units in fall 2022, or both."
"The Russian command likely views the deployment of a combat ineffective formation to Luhansk Oblast as a tolerable risk given the relatively lower tempo of operations along much of the Luhansk Oblast frontline," it continues.
The report goes on to say that the presence of the 25th CAA troops in Luhansk and the redeployment of 41st CAA forces to southern Ukraine indicate that Russia senses a "serious" threat of a "breakthrough" in the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Newsweek reached out for comment to the Russian Ministry of Defense via email on Friday night.
While the Ukrainian counteroffensive is moving at a far slower pace than the highly successfully counteroffensive launched last year, Kyiv's three-month effort has recently made some small but significant gains in the south.
This week, following an intense battle, Ukrainian forces retook the village of Robotyne, which is roughly 11 miles south of the front-line town of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Small advances have also been made in the eastern region of Donetsk, while a series of Ukrainian drone attacks have recently struck multiple targets in Russian-controlled territory and within Russia itself.
Criticism of the counteroffensive's slow progress has prompted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to repeatedly lash out at critics, this week accusing them of "spitting into the face" of Ukrainian troops.
"Criticizing the slow pace of (the) counteroffensive equals ... spitting into the face of (the) Ukrainian soldier who sacrifices his life every day, moving forward and liberating one kilometer of Ukrainian soil after another," Kuleba told reporters on Thursday, according to Reuters.
"I would recommend all critics to shut up, come to Ukraine and try to liberate one square centimeter by themselves," he added.
