Wagner Plane Crash Sparks Flood of Theories About Prigozhin's Death

The rumored death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash Wednesday has led to speculation about whether he was even on the plane.

Reports have said that Prigozhin, who helmed the private military company formerly heavily involved in the Russia-Ukraine war, was one of 10 passengers in a business jet allegedly shot down by Russian air missile defense systems. Videos of the plane going down have circulated on social media.

Prigozhin, a former confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin, drew global attention in June when he led to the "March of Justice" to the Kremlin doorstep in Moscow. The mutiny lasted less than 24 hours and ultimately led to various brokered deals between Putin and Prigozhin on how to proceed, including a safe refuge for the Wagner leader and his fighters in the allied nation of Belarus that never came to fruition.

So far, the only evidence of Prigozhin's purported death is that his name was listed as a passenger on the plane's manifest. Video footage includes two loud noises or explosions heard prior to the plane being hit and plummeting to the ground.

There was also a second plane belonging to the Wagner leader that was flying in Russia simultaneously, according to the Telegram page for the Grey Zone, a pro-Wagner source. That plane reportedly landed safely at the Ostafyevo International Business Airport near Moscow.

"There will be no body to identify," Igor Sushko, a Ukrainian military blogger, posted on X, formerly Twitter. "Although it would not be surprising if further planted 'evidence' from the crash site will be published. Overall, the information operations to categorically convince the public that Prigozhin is dead are way too aggressive to be real."

Questions also go beyond Prigozhin, as some unconfirmed reports said Dmitry Utkin, the Wagner Group's main commander and Prigozhin's right-hand man, was killed in the same crash.

"It's difficult to imagine that Prigozhin and Utkin would place themselves in such a position to be killed by Putin, after their demonstration of incredible competence and meticulous preparation for the coup against Putin," Sushko said.

Other users have questioned whether the incident was part of a ruse planned by Prigozhin and his mercenaries to "disappear" from the Kremlin's sight.

"I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that wasn't an accident," Donald Trump Jr. posted.

"Prigozhin humiliated Putin with his mutiny," posted former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul. "Everyone but Prigozhin seemed to understand that Putin would eventually seek revenge. Looks like he did today. But if you have to kill your buddies, is that really a sign of strength?"

Mikhail Troitskiy, professor of practice at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Newsweek via email that he believes the crash was no accident and the plane "was likely deliberately destroyed."

"There is a slim chance that Prigozhin faked his own death, having been tipped off by someone who wants to collaborate with him," he said. "It is more likely, however, that Prigozhin's death is real. In that case, it signifies intensification of the struggle for power in Russia.

"Prigozhin was at the hub of Russia's deniable activities across the globe and controlled plenty of valuable assets globally. Someone bets on their ability to take over those assets sidelining competing groups and quelling any blowback from Wagner in the wake of Prigozhin's assassination."

Rajan Menon, director of the Grand Strategy Program at Defense Priorities, told Newsweek that the unfolding events are odd considering Prigozhin had recently advocated for a new mission in Africa and it was never mentioned that he had returned to Russia.

"There will inevitably be speculation about whether his plane crashed or was shot down," Menon said. "That's because in recent months this man, a creature of Putin's political system, and someone who became fabulously wealthy, thanks to his ties to Putin and lucrative state contracts, had become morphed into something of a rebel."

Newsweek reached out to the Kremlin and Ukrainian Defense Ministry via email for comment.