Analysis: Charm offensive for support, defence against defections — it’s total politics for Malaysia PM Anwar after dismal state polls

SINGAPORE: The extent of grounds made by the opposition at Malaysia’s state elections means Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will have to step up his charm offensive in winning back the Malay vote, while also defending more tightly against potential defections within his ruling coalition, say analysts.

While Mr Anwar has tried to burnish his Islamic credentials and shore up Malay support since coming to power, observers tell CNA he now has to move the needle further, but not at the expense of alienating support from ethnic minorities that have been key behind his rise to power at Malaysia’ last general election.

They add that going forward, some moves by Mr Anwar could include the introduction of populist policies that will be accepted by all races, or a Cabinet reshuffle that better meets the needs of the people while still satisfying all parties in the unity government.

Stepping up his offensive and defensive game is a must-do for Mr Anwar, say analysts, as the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) is likely to ride the momentum from its strong performances to exact more defeats against the ruling coalition of Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional (PH-BN) before the next general election.

While the PN lived up to expectations by making further inroads in the six state polls on Saturday (Aug 12), the extent of its victories caught some by surprise. 

For instance, it grabbed 11 seats in Penang, up from one previously, quadrupled from five to 22 in Selangor, and went from zero to five seats in Negeri Sembilan - all states controlled by the PH-BN coalition.

In its own territories, PN tightened its stranglehold by going from 20 to 33 seats in Kedah, and 38 to 43 seats in Kelantan, while sweeping aside a flailing BN to claim all of Terengganu’s state seats.

Dr Wong Chin Huat from Sunway University said as long as PH-BN and PN do not make “peace”, the opposition will continue to paint the polls as a referendum that rejected Mr Anwar’s administration.

PN will use ethno-religious controversies to instigate a United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) challenge against PH, while PH’s Democratic Action Party (DAP) will not tolerate the government pandering excessively to pro-Malay sentiment, he said.

“This will create tension in the Government. Both the push and tension will subside if Anwar can deliver on the economic front to increase the government's overall popularity and also shore up support for UMNO,” he added.

WHAT WENT RIGHT FOR PN, AND WRONG FOR PH-BN?

Saturday’s results were also an indictment of the effectiveness of BN’s partnership with PH in attracting the Malay vote, as UMNO continued its decline by only winning a meagre 19 out of 108 seats it contested.

“UMNO has still not convinced its supporters of its partnership with the DAP and Anwar Ibrahim,” BowerGroup Asia director Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani said, citing a “growing disconnect” between the party’s leaders and supporters.

“PN was able to make inroads into PH strongholds due to a significant swing from UMNO voters.”

PN, on the other hand, was able to attract UMNO voters as - despite the presence of multiracial component party Gerakan - it was able to present itself as the only alternative Malay-based coalition.

“When the UMNO base is forced to choose between a multiethnic coalition and a monoethnic coalition, they choose the latter,” said Dr Wong.

“UMNO lacks credible and effective leaders both nationally and in the five states outside Negeri Sembilan to make a comeback.”

WHAT COULD PN DO NEXT?

Mr Asrul Hadi predicted that PN could use its strong performance at the latest polls to court lawmakers from UMNO and other parties to form the next federal government.

PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin had earlier branded the results as a “rejection” of the unity government, as he called for Mr Anwar’s resignation.

“PN will be looking to get the support of MPs from the unity coalition to vote against the Budget 2024 as a vote of no-confidence against Anwar Ibrahim as prime minister,” Mr Asrul Hadi said.

Professor James Chin from the University of Tasmania said Muhyiddin could also make the “smart move” of getting someone in UMNO to overthrow party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who’s also deputy prime minister, and in turn weaken PH-BN with an exit.

“First you have to find a hero inside UMNO who’s willing to fight for you. Second, the hero, whoever it is, must engineer the overthrow of Zahid and gang, and take over UMNO. And then UMNO can pull out of the coalition,” he said.

Observers again say that UMNO supporters’ gripes with Ahmad Zahid and a stagnant UMNO leadership contributed to its poor showing at the state elections, following a similarly dismal performance at the most recent 15th General Election (GE15).

The UMNO chief had then conducted what was described as a purge of the party, getting rid of figures whom he felt were threats to his authority.

“The usual champions are now kicked out already - KJ kicked out, Hishammuddin put on ice - so they’ve got to find a new hero,” Prof Chin said, referring to former health minister Khairy Jamaluddin and ex-defence minister Hishammuddin Hussein.

If there was ever a plot within UMNO to overthrow Ahmad Zahid, Prof Chin suggested that his natural replacement would be its second-in-command Mohamad Hasan, whom he said has no outstanding legal cases and was never aligned with Ahmad Zahid or jailed former prime minister and UMNO leader Najib Abdul Razak.

WHAT COULD PH DO NEXT?

On Mr Anwar’s end, observers say the prime minister has to try introducing policies that will appease a broader segment of the Malaysian people, instead of only helping the majority and leaving out the rest.

Mr Asrul Hadi feels Mr Anwar should target “low-hanging fruit” reforms that are seen as a win-win for all parties, including introducing equal constituency funding for all MPs and proposals for judicial independence.

The political observer said the polling results, where DAP emerged as the largest party in Penang, Negeri Sembilan and Selangor, showed Mr Anwar that DAP is a more important partner than UMNO.

“The message from the state elections is clear: Anwar must focus on important institutional reforms and stop pandering to conservative voters,” he said.

Dr Awang Azmi Awang Pawi of the University of Malaya said Mr Anwar can strike a balance by ensuring social justice for all while being mindful of ethnic or constitutional issues.

“For instance, the government can focus more effort on reducing ethnic poverty. Same goes with the focus on poorer states like Kelantan, Kedah and Terengganu.”

Dr Awang Azmi believes that Malay voters supported PN as they wanted to signal to the unity government their worries about their lower socioeconomic status.

“This is one way these voters can get attention after they feel they cannot change their situation,” he added.

While Sunway University’s Dr Wong said ethnic minorities can accept more handouts for poorer Malays, he cautioned that a more conservative shift on lifestyle matters could spark another “revolt”. 

The political scientist pointed to how the government’s move in 2019 to introduce Arabic script in the Malay language syllabus for primary school upset non-Malay groups amid fears of rising Islamisation.

If the ethnic minorities feel they are still being curtailed despite supporting these more populist policies, Dr Wong said they could see PH as “ungrateful and brutally punish Anwar in the next election”.

On the other hand, Prof Chin said he does not see how Mr Anwar could strike a balance, highlighting a number of pro-Islamic policies he is already pushing for.

This includes tabling a contentious amendment to the Shariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965, and expanding an Islamic authority’s role in shaping national development.

To this end, Prof Chin said the DAP could find itself in the same dilemma as the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), a BN component party. While BN was in power, MCA was sometimes seen as a slave to the Malay-based UMNO, unable to promote Chinese interests.

“I think that the DAP unfortunately is caught in the MCA dilemma. They cannot raise their objection in public; they can only raise it in private.

“But they cannot stop the change, because Anwar will say: ‘If you want me to survive as a prime minister, if you want it to be a Pakatan government, you have to swallow this,’” Prof Chin said, referring to concessions made by minority-based parties to remain part of the ruling coalition.

CABINET RESHUFFLE IMMINENT?

The analysts said Mr Anwar could also reshuffle his Cabinet in a bid to shore up Malay support, by bringing in people from a non-political background to create a “wow factor” and please the middle-class.

Dr Wong said the middle-class feels they can relate more to professionals or businesspeople, rather than career politicians who think they are “superior in competence, intelligence and integrity”.

“Anwar will need to take some gestures to appease the Malay grounds. The middle class, especially the English-speaking segment, would like to be assured that Anwar notices and appreciates their support,” he said.

Mr Asrul Hadi said any reshuffle by Mr Anwar will involve DAP and its supporters expecting more ministerial positions for the party.

“UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will be under pressure to step down, but the deputy prime minister will be defiant as long as he remains in Anwar’s Cabinet,” he said.

But analysts added that it was too early to tell when a reshuffle could happen, with some saying the extent of changes will be limited and constrained by a need to please all 16 parties in the unity government.

Dr Awang Azmi feels that Anwar will not reshuffle his cabinet immediately, but possibly after a Sep 9 by-election to replace former domestic trade minister Salahuddin Ayub. Mr Salahuddin died in July after surgery for a brain haemorrhage.

“I think the unity government will focus on the actual needs of the people,” he said, stressing that the unity government must raise its Malay support in less than five years before the next GE.

“I think continued effort needs to be made to understand why the sentiment that Malay-Muslim rights are being threatened is still popular among the Malay majority.”

Prof Chin suggested that Mr Anwar could even make efforts to bring PN’s Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) into his government and instantly buttress Malay support.

PAS, the party currently holding the most seats in Malaysia’s parliament, were at one time part of an alliance with PH that challenged a ruling BN. 

Prof Chin said PAS would be interested in joining the current government as it would allow them to implement Islamic policies at the federal level.

“That will immediately change the equation because the moment he brings PAS into the coalition, it means it has to break with (PN’s Parti Pribumi) Bersatu,” he added.

“If you bring the other side over, you will take care of everything.”