Teen Jobs Trending Down Into Summer Of 2023

Teenagers are, almost by definition, the most marginally employed of all members of the U.S. labor force. That's because compared to nearly all other workers, teens are less skilled, less experienced, and less educated.

Because they are the most marginal members of the U.S. labor force, the trends for teen jobs can tell us a lot about the underlying health of the U.S. job market. If you've read any recent headlines on the topic, you might think the job market is especially promising for American teens. Here are a few recent examples:

• Summer job market proving strong for teens
• With wages soaring for younger workers, teens are reaping ‘amazing’ opportunities this summer
• As the summer heats up, so does the job market for teens

Based on those headlines, it would be reasonable to think the number and share of teens counted as having jobs would be heading upward. Unfortunately, it's not working out that way. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' seasonally-adjusted data, teen jobs are trending downward going into the summer of 2023. The following chart shows that development:

These data series are subject to higher month-to-month volatility than the data for the full working population, so it's still a bit early to call it a harbinger of bad news for the U.S. economy. It is however very noticeable after having seen overall teen employment peak in April 2023.

Readers should also note that each of these data series have been subjected to their own seasonal adjustment. That's why simply adding a month's employment data for the Age 16-17 group to the Age 18-19 group won't necessarily add up to the total shown for the Age 16-19 population the way it does for non-seasonally adjusted data. The biggest seasonal adjustments for working teens take place during the summer each year.

Meanwhile, the teen employment-to-population ratios confirm the same downward development, as shown in the next chart:

According to both charts, the number and share of the working Age 16-17 population peaked in December 2022, while the share of the working Age 18-19 demographic peaked in April 2023. The number and percentage of population for the combined Age 16-19 group that are working peaked in April 2023.

Perhaps that will change with next month's jobs report. What's the likelihood it will show the number of teen jobs at or above these recent peaks?

References

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Force Statistics (Current Population Survey - CPS). [Online Database]. Accessed: 16 July 2023.

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